1. Rivera would pitch on regular rest. He pitched 80 innings only once as a closer. In his first full season of 1996 Rivera pitched 107 innings as the set up man for closer John Wetteland, who led the AL with 43 Saves in 63 innings.
2. Rivera might be able to pitch into the second inning if he threw few pitches in the first inning.
3. Rivera would always be pitching to the top of the order, not starting with a random selection of 1 through 9 of the batting order.
It turns out that as a closer Rivera pitched to the bottom of the batting order more than to the top. So did other Hall of Fame closers.
Click this link to view data used in this post. Data from baseball-reference.com
Closers inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2018 and 2019 have the most career Saves:
| Rank | Player (yrs, age) | Saves | Throws |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Mariano Rivera+ (19) | 652 | R |
| 2. | Trevor Hoffman+ (18) | 601 | R |
| 3. | Lee Smith+ (18) | 478 | R |
Plate Appearances (PA) are sorted for each of the 9 Batting Order Positions (BOP). Then the BOP is shown. All three closers show BOP that is skewed to facing the bottom of the order more than the top. The PA sample sizes are in the thousands.
All three closers faced the number 3 batter the least. Number 3 is almost always one of the two best hitters in a lineup.
Nine BOP average about 11% per BOP. The percentage and percent differences are shown. Rivera has the biggest extremes between the batters he faced most and least often: 8 and 3.
Innings summary of PA by inning:
Rivera v. Wetteland (set up v. closer) in 1996:
Career Saves leaders progressive for closers:
All five, including Jeff Reardon (10) and Hall of Fame closer Rollie Fingers (13), have BOP clearly skewed toward facing the top of the order least often. The first four all faced the number 3 batter least.
The data is less skewed for the individual seasons for most Saves.
52 or more Saves in a season:
| Rank | Player (age that year) | Saves | Year | Throws |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Francisco Rodriguez (26) | 62 | 2008 | R |
| 2. | Edwin Diaz (24) | 57 | 2018 | R |
| Bobby Thigpen (26) | 57 | 1990 | R | |
| 4. | Eric Gagne (27) | 55 | 2003 | R |
| John Smoltz+ (35) | 55 | 2002 | R | |
| 6. | Trevor Hoffman+ (30) | 53 | 1998 | R |
| Randy Myers (30) | 53 | 1993 | L | |
| Mariano Rivera+ (34) | 53 | 2004 | R | |
| 9. | Eric Gagne (26) | 52 | 2002 | R |
Comments about how prevalent this might be and why it might occur are welcome. A reasonable guess is that by the time the setup pitcher has cleaned up a rally in the 8th inning, he's down towards the bottom of the order and the closer is left with an easier than random selection of batters ... and with no runners on base.
Should Mariano Rivera be elected to the Hall of Fame? Tuesday, July 4, 2017
What? Isn't that a forgone conclusion? Conventional wisdom? Isn't Mariano Rivera the greatest closer in history?
The premise here is that, although Rivera preformed his role very well, his role wasn't nearly as important as it was perceived during his career (1995-2013)...
http://retrosheet.org/Research/SmithD/MythOfTheCloser.pdf
The Myth of the Closer
By David W. Smith
Presented July 29, 2016
SABR46, Miami, Florida
Every team spends much effort and money to select its closer, the pitcher who enters in the ninth inning to seal the deal and nail down a win. Of course, this now universal use of a closer only became the norm relatively recently and the reason given is simple: teams feel their chance of winning is increased by having this ace specialist. I decided to look at this assumption more closely and came to a probably startling conclusion: it isn’t true that closers increase the chance for a team to win, or at least it is marginally true at best...
Others have addressed the use of closers: Bill James suggests that using an ace in the 7th inning in a crucial situation may be more important; I agree. Mike Emeigh believes that closers are more important in extra innings. Wayne Towers has a presentation tomorrow afternoon on the possible changing meaning of high save totals.
Conclusions
1. The entry of a new pitcher to start the 9th inning has increased dramatically since 1980.
2. The presence of this new pitcher has had almost no effect on a team’s chances to win.
3. Ace closers bring slightly more wins than other 9th inning pitchers (92% vs 88%)
4. Performance of 9th inning pitchers is almost indistinguishable between closers and others.
5. Increased use 9th inning pitchers correlates with overall increase of relief pitchers.
6. Pitchers have had progressively shorter stints for over 100 years.
7. Current pattern of closer usage is not justified by their contributions to team wins.
_________________________________
1 comment:
The basis for Mariano's unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame is his record number of saves (652). A save in a baseball is nothing more than the historical record of a successful con job. What needed saving? There is no one on base, your team has a lead, and in the history of baseball no matter who was pitching a team had about an 85% chance of winning with a one run lead, 93% with a two run lead and a 97% chance of winning with a three run lead. In 2012 Mariano was hurt, Rafael Soriano steps up and basically replicates what Mariano did a year earlier (Soriano saved 42 games in 2012). Mariano retired after 2013, in 2014, David Robertson moves in and saves 39, again basically replicating what Mariano did in 2013. Things got so ridiculous in the New York area that a NY Post columnist actually speculated on who was more valuable to the Yankees, Mariano Rivera or Mickey Mantle!!!!!
The save should be abolished. Bullpens work like infielders at this point. The pitchers in the bullpen in various combinations work to record the last 9-12 outs in a game. At some point in the not to distant future, Mariano's unanimous selection will be recognized as nothing more than the historical absurdity. I just wish one voter had the integrity to just say no.
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