Kill the Win, unless it kills your argument: Mike Mussina.

270? Really? Mike Mussina had 270 Wins? And a very high winning "percentage". Oh, then we should consider Mike Mussina for the Hall of Fame. Sound familiar? That rattled around after Mike Mussina retired after his one and only 20 win season. This month Mike Mussina was elected to the Hall of Fame.

Congratulations to Mike Mussina. But what about the "Kill the Win" argument? Shouldn't we turn a blind eye to Wins and Losses and therefore to winning "percentage"?

Yesterday I had this exchange with a friend:

Friend:
I don't think I can find a pitcher with more wins, better win %, and better era+ than Mussina who's not in the Hall...

I checked. Only modern pitchers who beat Mussina in wins, win %, and era+ are Mathewson, Randy Johnson, Grove, Clemens, and Alexander.

Ken:
What happened to kill the win? Brian Kenny ignores that to make another of his points.
__________________________________

There followed a comparison of Mussina to Jim Palmer, who would miss the cut above because he had only 268 Wins.

I ran a "Play Index" ad hoc query in baseball-reference.com:

Careers, From 1901 to 2018, (requiring W>=270, ERA+>=122, W-L%>=.632), sorted by greatest Adjusted ERA+

Rk	Player	ERA+	W	W-L%	IP	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	GF	L	SV	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	BAbip	HR	BF	IBB	HBP	BK	WP	Tm
1	Lefty Grove	148	300	.680	3940.2	1925	1941	25-41	616	457	298	35	123	141	54	3849	1594	1339	1187	2266	3.06	3.36	13.6%	7.1%	.289	162	16622		42	1	51	PHA-BOS
2	Roger Clemens	143	354	.658	4916.2	1984	2007	21-44	709	707	118	46	0	184	0	4185	1885	1707	1580	4672	3.12	3.09	23.1%	7.8%	.286	363	20240	63	159	20	143	BOS-TOR-NYY-HOU
3	Christy Mathewson	137	373	.668	4755.0	1901	1916	20-35	630	551	434	79	69	185	30	4182	1588	1116	828	2492	2.11	2.25	13.3%	4.4%	undef	88	18756		55	8	114	NYG-CIN
4	Randy Johnson	135	303	.646	4135.1	1988	2009	24-45	618	603	100	37	7	166	2	3346	1703	1513	1497	4875	3.29	3.19	28.6%	8.8%	.295	411	17067	37	190	33	109	MON-SEA-HOU-ARI-NYY-SFG
5	Pete Alexander	135	373	.642	5190.0	1911	1930	24-43	696	600	436	90	81	208	32	4868	1852	1476	951	2198	2.56	2.88	10.5%	4.6%	undef	165	20893		70	1	38	PHI-CHC-STL
6	Mike Mussina	123	270	.638	3562.2	1991	2008	22-39	537	536	57	23	0	153	0	3460	1559	1458	785	2813	3.68	3.57	19.3%	5.4%	.295	376	14593	29	60	1	71	BAL-NYY

Mussina is last in ERA+ and IP but he's in elite company. What happens if we expand the criteria? Let's drop Wins down from 270 to 250, where Mussina was before he won 20 in his final season.

Rk	Player	ERA+	W	W-L%	IP	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	GF	L	SV	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	BAbip	HR	BF	IBB	HBP	BK	WP	Tm
1	Lefty Grove	148	300	.680	3940.2	1925	1941	25-41	616	457	298	35	123	141	54	3849	1594	1339	1187	2266	3.06	3.36	13.6%	7.1%	.289	162	16622		42	1	51	PHA-BOS
2	Roger Clemens	143	354	.658	4916.2	1984	2007	21-44	709	707	118	46	0	184	0	4185	1885	1707	1580	4672	3.12	3.09	23.1%	7.8%	.286	363	20240	63	159	20	143	BOS-TOR-NYY-HOU
3	Christy Mathewson	137	373	.668	4755.0	1901	1916	20-35	630	551	434	79	69	185	30	4182	1588	1116	828	2492	2.11	2.25	13.3%	4.4%	undef	88	18756		55	8	114	NYG-CIN
4	Randy Johnson	135	303	.646	4135.1	1988	2009	24-45	618	603	100	37	7	166	2	3346	1703	1513	1497	4875	3.29	3.19	28.6%	8.8%	.295	411	17067	37	190	33	109	MON-SEA-HOU-ARI-NYY-SFG
5	Pete Alexander	135	373	.642	5190.0	1911	1930	24-43	696	600	436	90	81	208	32	4868	1852	1476	951	2198	2.56	2.88	10.5%	4.6%	undef	165	20893		70	1	38	PHI-CHC-STL
6	Jim Palmer	125	268	.638	3948.0	1965	1984	19-38	558	521	211	53	15	152	4	3349	1395	1253	1311	2212	2.86	3.50	13.7%	8.1%	.251	303	16114	37	38	11	85	BAL
7	Mike Mussina	123	270	.638	3562.2	1991	2008	22-39	537	536	57	23	0	153	0	3460	1559	1458	785	2813	3.68	3.57	19.3%	5.4%	.295	376	14593	29	60	1	71	BAL-NYY

That adds only Jim Palmer and suggests that Palmer and Mussina are dead ringers. Unseen are Cy Young awards: Palmer 3, Mussina 0. And that Palmer won at least 20 games in four consecutive seasons ... twice. And that Palmer had quite a bit more black ink than Mussina for leading the league.

Let's drop winning "percentage" from .632 to .600.

Rk	Player	ERA+	W	W-L%	IP	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	GF	L	SV	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	BAbip	HR	BF	IBB	HBP	BK	WP	Tm
1	Lefty Grove	148	300	.680	3940.2	1925	1941	25-41	616	457	298	35	123	141	54	3849	1594	1339	1187	2266	3.06	3.36	13.6%	7.1%	.289	162	16622		42	1	51	PHA-BOS
2	Roger Clemens	143	354	.658	4916.2	1984	2007	21-44	709	707	118	46	0	184	0	4185	1885	1707	1580	4672	3.12	3.09	23.1%	7.8%	.286	363	20240	63	159	20	143	BOS-TOR-NYY-HOU
3	Christy Mathewson	137	373	.668	4755.0	1901	1916	20-35	630	551	434	79	69	185	30	4182	1588	1116	828	2492	2.11	2.25	13.3%	4.4%	undef	88	18756		55	8	114	NYG-CIN
4	Randy Johnson	135	303	.646	4135.1	1988	2009	24-45	618	603	100	37	7	166	2	3346	1703	1513	1497	4875	3.29	3.19	28.6%	8.8%	.295	411	17067	37	190	33	109	MON-SEA-HOU-ARI-NYY-SFG
5	Pete Alexander	135	373	.642	5190.0	1911	1930	24-43	696	600	436	90	81	208	32	4868	1852	1476	951	2198	2.56	2.88	10.5%	4.6%	undef	165	20893		70	1	38	PHI-CHC-STL
6	Greg Maddux	132	355	.610	5008.1	1986	2008	20-42	744	740	109	35	3	227	0	4726	1981	1756	999	3371	3.16	3.26	16.5%	4.9%	.286	353	20421	177	137	28	70	CHC-ATL-LAD-SDP
7	Carl Hubbell	130	253	.622	3590.1	1928	1943	25-40	535	433	260	36	82	154	33	3461	1380	1188	725	1677	2.98	3.55	11.3%	4.9%	.272	227	14805		53	1	53	NYG
8	Tom Seaver	127	311	.603	4783.0	1967	1986	22-41	656	647	231	61	6	205	1	3971	1674	1521	1390	3640	2.86	3.04	18.8%	7.2%	.262	380	19369	116	76	8	126	NYM-CIN-CHW-BOS
9	Jim Palmer	125	268	.638	3948.0	1965	1984	19-38	558	521	211	53	15	152	4	3349	1395	1253	1311	2212	2.86	3.50	13.7%	8.1%	.251	303	16114	37	38	11	85	BAL
10	Mike Mussina	123	270	.638	3562.2	1991	2008	22-39	537	536	57	23	0	153	0	3460	1559	1458	785	2813	3.68	3.57	19.3%	5.4%	.295	376	14593	29	60	1	71	BAL-NYY
11	Eddie Plank	122	326	.627	4495.2	1901	1917	25-41	623	529	410	69	77	194	23	3958	1566	1174	1072	2246	2.35	2.45	12.6%	6.0%	undef	42	17803		190	6	88	PHA-SLM-SLB
12	Bob Feller	122	266	.621	3827.0	1936	1956	17-37	570	484	279	44	52	162	22	3271	1557	1384	1764	2581	3.25	3.48	16.0%	10.9%	.268	224	16180	6	60	13	69	CLE

That doubles the original list. If we kill winning "percentage", let's see what we get.

Rk	Player	ERA+	W	W-L%	IP	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	GF	L	SV	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	BAbip	HR	BF	IBB	HBP	BK	WP	Tm
1	Lefty Grove	148	300	.680	3940.2	1925	1941	25-41	616	457	298	35	123	141	54	3849	1594	1339	1187	2266	3.06	3.36	13.6%	7.1%	.289	162	16622		42	1	51	PHA-BOS
2	Walter Johnson	147	417	.599	5914.1	1907	1927	19-39	802	666	531	110	127	279	34	4913	1902	1424	1363	3509	2.17	2.42	15.0%	5.8%	undef	97	23405		205	4	154	WSH
3	Roger Clemens	143	354	.658	4916.2	1984	2007	21-44	709	707	118	46	0	184	0	4185	1885	1707	1580	4672	3.12	3.09	23.1%	7.8%	.286	363	20240	63	159	20	143	BOS-TOR-NYY-HOU
4	Christy Mathewson	137	373	.668	4755.0	1901	1916	20-35	630	551	434	79	69	185	30	4182	1588	1116	828	2492	2.11	2.25	13.3%	4.4%	undef	88	18756		55	8	114	NYG-CIN
5	Randy Johnson	135	303	.646	4135.1	1988	2009	24-45	618	603	100	37	7	166	2	3346	1703	1513	1497	4875	3.29	3.19	28.6%	8.8%	.295	411	17067	37	190	33	109	MON-SEA-HOU-ARI-NYY-SFG
6	Pete Alexander	135	373	.642	5190.0	1911	1930	24-43	696	600	436	90	81	208	32	4868	1852	1476	951	2198	2.56	2.88	10.5%	4.6%	undef	165	20893		70	1	38	PHI-CHC-STL
7	Greg Maddux	132	355	.610	5008.1	1986	2008	20-42	744	740	109	35	3	227	0	4726	1981	1756	999	3371	3.16	3.26	16.5%	4.9%	.286	353	20421	177	137	28	70	CHC-ATL-LAD-SDP
8	Carl Hubbell	130	253	.622	3590.1	1928	1943	25-40	535	433	260	36	82	154	33	3461	1380	1188	725	1677	2.98	3.55	11.3%	4.9%	.272	227	14805		53	1	53	NYG
9	Tom Seaver	127	311	.603	4783.0	1967	1986	22-41	656	647	231	61	6	205	1	3971	1674	1521	1390	3640	2.86	3.04	18.8%	7.2%	.262	380	19369	116	76	8	126	NYM-CIN-CHW-BOS
10	Bob Gibson	127	251	.591	3884.1	1959	1975	23-39	528	482	255	56	21	174	6	3279	1420	1258	1336	3117	2.91	2.89	19.4%	8.3%	.273	257	16068	118	102	13	108	STL
11	Jim Palmer	125	268	.638	3948.0	1965	1984	19-38	558	521	211	53	15	152	4	3349	1395	1253	1311	2212	2.86	3.50	13.7%	8.1%	.251	303	16114	37	38	11	85	BAL
12	Mike Mussina	123	270	.638	3562.2	1991	2008	22-39	537	536	57	23	0	153	0	3460	1559	1458	785	2813	3.68	3.57	19.3%	5.4%	.295	376	14593	29	60	1	71	BAL-NYY
13	Eddie Plank	122	326	.627	4495.2	1901	1917	25-41	623	529	410	69	77	194	23	3958	1566	1174	1072	2246	2.35	2.45	12.6%	6.0%	undef	42	17803		190	6	88	PHA-SLM-SLB
14	Bob Feller	122	266	.621	3827.0	1936	1956	17-37	570	484	279	44	52	162	22	3271	1557	1384	1764	2581	3.25	3.48	16.0%	10.9%	.268	224	16180	6	60	13	69	CLE

Bob Gibson gets added to the previous list. And old timer Eddie Plank. What if we Kill the Win and just look at ERA+ of 122 and 3,500 IP?

Rk	Player	ERA+	W	W-L%	IP	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	GF	L	SV	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	BAbip	HR	BF	IBB	HBP	BK	WP	Tm
1	Lefty Grove	148	300	.680	3940.2	1925	1941	25-41	616	457	298	35	123	141	54	3849	1594	1339	1187	2266	3.06	3.36	13.6%	7.1%	.289	162	16622		42	1	51	PHA-BOS
2	Walter Johnson	147	417	.599	5914.1	1907	1927	19-39	802	666	531	110	127	279	34	4913	1902	1424	1363	3509	2.17	2.42	15.0%	5.8%	undef	97	23405		205	4	154	WSH
3	Roger Clemens	143	354	.658	4916.2	1984	2007	21-44	709	707	118	46	0	184	0	4185	1885	1707	1580	4672	3.12	3.09	23.1%	7.8%	.286	363	20240	63	159	20	143	BOS-TOR-NYY-HOU
4	Christy Mathewson	137	373	.668	4755.0	1901	1916	20-35	630	551	434	79	69	185	30	4182	1588	1116	828	2492	2.11	2.25	13.3%	4.4%	undef	88	18756		55	8	114	NYG-CIN
5	Randy Johnson	135	303	.646	4135.1	1988	2009	24-45	618	603	100	37	7	166	2	3346	1703	1513	1497	4875	3.29	3.19	28.6%	8.8%	.295	411	17067	37	190	33	109	MON-SEA-HOU-ARI-NYY-SFG
6	Pete Alexander	135	373	.642	5190.0	1911	1930	24-43	696	600	436	90	81	208	32	4868	1852	1476	951	2198	2.56	2.88	10.5%	4.6%	undef	165	20893		70	1	38	PHI-CHC-STL
7	Greg Maddux	132	355	.610	5008.1	1986	2008	20-42	744	740	109	35	3	227	0	4726	1981	1756	999	3371	3.16	3.26	16.5%	4.9%	.286	353	20421	177	137	28	70	CHC-ATL-LAD-SDP
8	Carl Hubbell	130	253	.622	3590.1	1928	1943	25-40	535	433	260	36	82	154	33	3461	1380	1188	725	1677	2.98	3.55	11.3%	4.9%	.272	227	14805		53	1	53	NYG
9	Tom Seaver	127	311	.603	4783.0	1967	1986	22-41	656	647	231	61	6	205	1	3971	1674	1521	1390	3640	2.86	3.04	18.8%	7.2%	.262	380	19369	116	76	8	126	NYM-CIN-CHW-BOS
10	Bob Gibson	127	251	.591	3884.1	1959	1975	23-39	528	482	255	56	21	174	6	3279	1420	1258	1336	3117	2.91	2.89	19.4%	8.3%	.273	257	16068	118	102	13	108	STL
11	Jim Palmer	125	268	.638	3948.0	1965	1984	19-38	558	521	211	53	15	152	4	3349	1395	1253	1311	2212	2.86	3.50	13.7%	8.1%	.251	303	16114	37	38	11	85	BAL
12	Juan Marichal	123	243	.631	3507.0	1960	1975	22-37	471	457	244	52	11	142	2	3153	1329	1126	709	2303	2.89	3.04	16.2%	5.0%	.264	320	14236	82	40	20	51	SFG-BOS-LAD
13	Mike Mussina	123	270	.638	3562.2	1991	2008	22-39	537	536	57	23	0	153	0	3460	1559	1458	785	2813	3.68	3.57	19.3%	5.4%	.295	376	14593	29	60	1	71	BAL-NYY
14	Eddie Plank	122	326	.627	4495.2	1901	1917	25-41	623	529	410	69	77	194	23	3958	1566	1174	1072	2246	2.35	2.45	12.6%	6.0%	undef	42	17803		190	6	88	PHA-SLM-SLB
15	Bob Feller	122	266	.621	3827.0	1936	1956	17-37	570	484	279	44	52	162	22	3271	1557	1384	1764	2581	3.25	3.48	16.0%	10.9%	.268	224	16180	6	60	13	69	CLE

We add Juan Marichal. So what was the point of considering Wins and Winning "percentage"? Mike Mussina is still in elite company and still near the bottom of the list in ERA+ and IP.

And was Mike Mussina that much better than Andy Pettitte, who threw 3,316 innings, not the 3,500 innings required in the previous list and ERA+ only 117? Pettitte's W/L: 256/153 (hey, 102 more wins than losses) .626.

Mike Mussina for the Hall of Fame? OK but just don't shout it. Friday, January 3, 2014

If Mike Mussina is a Hall of Famer, why not Kevin Brown? Saturday, January 4, 2014

Pedro Martinez v. Mike Mussina: Hall of Fame character criteria judged by Hit by Pitch. Monday, January 5, 2015, 1:00AM

Hall of Fame: Blyleven, now maybe Mussina? Is it so? Sunday, January 5, 2014, 9:14AM

Do 11 ERA+ 125 seasons make Mike Mussina a Hall of Fame pitcher? Thursday, December 27, 2018