Looking at Rickey Henderson anecdotally seems as good a way as any to try to determine why closers seem to face those lower in Batting Order Position (BOP) more often than those at the top, like Rickey Henderson. How frequently did Rickey Henderson lead off in 9th?
The detailed splits in baseball-reference.com do not address this. Nor do they tell us the game PA number in the 9th or the number of PA per game. So one must look at the game logs for individual seasons and click the PA column to sort the games, then cruise down and see how many games show Henderson with more than 4 PA. After checking a few seasons the pattern becomes obvious.
Of course batting in the 9th inning does not mean that Henderson was the first batter in the 9th. This is viewing the situation from 20,000 feet. It gives us some perspective.
If the starting player in BOP 1 bats in the 9th inning, it must be at least his 4th PA. Here's a table, which reflects the BOP 1 starter's PA number if leading off the 9th:
Since the closer is likely in a lower scoring game protecting a lead of fewer than four runs, Rickey Henderson (universal leadoff batter, a.k.a., BOP 1) represents the top of the order coming up again. Henderson, of course, could be batting in the 9th after several teammates have already batted. But if Henderson is more than the fourth batter in the 9th, then the closer has likely sucked.
Maybe someone has already run through 100,000 games and can tell us which BOP are most likely in the 9th and under which scoring situations and whether or not the pitcher is the closer, starter, any anyone in between.
Start the closer so that he pitches to the top of the order, increasing the effectiveness of the "starter". Monday, February 11, 2019
Rickey Henderson batted leadoff in 98% of his PA. He was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2009. (Voted by BBWAA on 511/539 ballots)
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