Monday, March 25, 2019

WAR is a total, not an average.

197 players have at least 50 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Mike Trout is among them with by far the fewest plate appearances (PA): 4,673. That's 1,120 fewer than the next fewest by Joe Jackson. Next fewest: Jackie Robinson.

WAR:
Trout 64.3
Jackson 62.2
Robinson 61.4

So what the heck are people talking about when they mindlessly throw these WAR numbers around?

RkPlayerPAWAR/posFromToAgeGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
1Pete Rose1589079.71963198622-45356214053216542567461351601314156616711431075679247198149.303.375.409.78437549H/8CIN-PHI-MON
2Carl Yastrzemski1399296.41961198321-4333081198818163419646594521844184519013934013105323168116.285.379.462.841*73D8/H59BOS
3Hank Aaron13941143.01954197620-423298123642174377162498755229714022931383322112132824073.305.374.555.928*9783DH/45MLN-ATL-MIL
4Rickey Henderson13346111.21979200320-443081109612295305551066297111521906116949830671721406335.279.401.419.820*78HD/9NYY-TOR-OAK-SDP-ANA-NYM-SEA-BOS-LAD
5Ty Cobb13099151.01905192818-41303411439224341897242951171944124968094292897212.366.433.512.945*89/H73415DET-PHA
6Cal Ripken Jr.1288395.91981200120-40300111551164731846034443116951129107130566101273503639.276.340.447.788*65/DHBAL
7Eddie Murray1281768.71977199721-41302611336162732555603550419171333222151618212831511043.287.359.476.836*3D/H57BAL-LAD-NYM-CLE-ANA
8Stan Musial12718128.21941196320-4230261097219493630725177475195115992986965335532437871.331.417.559.9763798H/1STL
9Barry Bonds12606162.81986200721-42298698472227293560177762199625586881539106491165514141.298.444.6071.051*78H/D9PIT-SFG
10Derek Jeter1260272.41995201421-40274711195192334655446626013111082391840170975828735897.310.377.440.817*6/DHNYY

RankPlayer (yrs, age)WAR Position PlayersBats
1.Barry Bonds (22)162.8L
2.Babe Ruth+ (22)162.1L
3.Willie Mays+ (22)156.4R
4.Ty Cobb+ (24)151.0L
5.Hank Aaron+ (23)143.0R
6.Tris Speaker+ (22)134.1L
7.Honus Wagner+ (21)130.8R
8.Stan Musial+ (22)128.2L
9.Rogers Hornsby+ (23)127.0R
10.Eddie Collins+ (25)124.0L

RankPlayer (yrs, age)Offensive WARBats
1.Babe Ruth+ (22)154.3L
2.Ty Cobb+ (24)151.2L
3.Barry Bonds (22)143.7L
4.Willie Mays+ (22)136.8R
5.Hank Aaron+ (23)132.4R
6.Ted Williams+ (19)126.4L
7.Stan Musial+ (22)124.8L
8.Tris Speaker+ (22)124.2L
9.Honus Wagner+ (21)123.3R
10.Rogers Hornsby+ (23)121.8R

RankPlayer (yrs, age)Defensive WARBats
1.Ozzie Smith+ (19)44.2B
2.Mark Belanger (18)39.5R
3.Brooks Robinson+ (23)39.1R
4.Cal Ripken+ (21)35.7R
5.Joe Tinker+ (15)34.3R
6.Luis Aparicio+ (18)31.8R
7.Rabbit Maranville+ (23)30.8R
8.Ivan Rodriguez+ (21)29.6R
9.Omar Vizquel (24)29.5B
10.Adrian Beltre (21)29.3R


RankPlayer (yrs, age)WAR for PitchersThrows
1.Cy Young+ (22)165.6R
2.Walter Johnson+ (21)151.6R
3.Roger Clemens (24)138.7R
4.Kid Nichols+ (15)116.5R
5.Pete Alexander+ (20)115.9R
6.Lefty Grove+ (17)113.3L
7.Tom Seaver+ (20)106.0R
8.Greg Maddux+ (23)104.8R
9.Randy Johnson+ (22)103.5L
10.Christy Mathewson+ (17)97.6R

Batting average (BA) finally slipped into disrepute but at least it let baseball fans realize that Pete Rose was not the best hitter because he had the most hits. This was obscured when Ty Cobb had both the most hits and also the highest BA. Rose also had the most Outs.

Baseball fans tended to forget all that when 3,000 Hits were mentioned. But the stat that has been king of totals is still Home Runs (HR). All you hear are totals:
50 HR
60 HR
61 HR
70 HR
73 HR

500 HR
714 HR
755 HR
762 HR

Totals, not averages. Now we are buried in WAR. Compounding that confusion:
Pitching WAR only covers pitching, not batting, base running, fielding.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_bat_career.shtml

Wins Above Replacement for position players A single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add. Scale: 8+ MVP Quality, 5+ All-Star Quality, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Reserve, < 0 Replacement Level Developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com
__________________________

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_off_career.shtml

Offensive Wins Above Replacement (everything but Fielding) The same statistic as Wins Above Replacement for Position Players (WAR), but with the fielding value excluded. oWAR + dWAR does not equal WAR. Adding would count positions twice. Contains the factor for batting stats, baserunning, a positional adjustment, and the replacement player adjustment. Factors developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com
___________________________

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_def_career.shtml

Defensive Wins Above Replacement for position players A defensive measure of wins above replacement, but given only the defensive stats of the player and his position adjustment. For this calculation, we use a replacement level on defense is the league average. Based on Baseball Info Solutions defensive runs saved from 2003 on and total zone rating developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com previously
___________________________

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_pitch_career.shtml

Wins Above Replacement for Pitchers A single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add. This value includes defensive support and includes additional value for high leverage situations. Scale: 8+ MVP Quality, 5+ All-Star Quality, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Reserve, < 0 Replacement Level Developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com
___________________________

Pitching WAR does not include the pitcher's batting, fielding or base running.

Babe Ruth WAR, including pitching, greater than Barry Bonds WAR. Friday, March 22, 2019

Babe Ruth's cumulative career WAR as a pitcher: 20.3. That puts Ruth way ahead of Bonds:
Ruth: 162.1 + 20.3 = 182.4
Bonds: 162.8

___________________________

But all this confusing stuff, with all the questionable fielding stats, are still totals. Totals favor longevity, as in Pete Rose having more hits (and outs) than Ty Cobb. Hank Aaron (12,364 AB) having more Home Runs than Babe Ruth (8,399 AB).

Next post: WAR averages based on PA, Innings, ...

No comments: