Tuesday, November 5, 2019

2019 World Series: "experts" who are never wrong because they're "smarter".

On MLB Network today Brian Kenny and his band of "experts" certified that they are correct no matter how things actually work out. They discussed the decisions by the Houston Astros manager AJ Hinch in the fateful 7th inning of game 7 of the 2019 World Series.

They agreed that Astros manager Hinch made the right move in replacing starting pitcher Zack Greinke with Will Harris with the Astros leading 2-1 and a runner on first base. Harris allowed a home run to Howie Kendrick, the first batter he faced, blowing the lead and losing the game.

The basic details are below but by any reasonable measurement manager Hinch could not have had a worse outcome. A home run is the maximum damage that can occur and it did. But the new/current orthodoxy was followed, so the "experts" were not defending manager Hinch but themselves. If the starting pitcher had been left in and failed, they would be correct. That the opposite had occurred did not even slow them down in asserting their correctness. Their basic logic: hey, even when you are correct things can go wrong. And besides, Washington starting pitcher Max Scherzer had been hit hard and should have allowed more runs.

Suppose Hinch had left Greinke in the game and Greinke retired the side and maintained his 2-1 lead? The "experts" would have claimed that it was the wrong move but worked because even when you are incorrect things can go right.

2019 World Series
Washington Nationals over Houston Astros (4-3)

Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Start Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
Attendance: 43,326
Venue: Minute Maid Park
Game Duration: 3:42
Night Game, on grass
123456789RHE
Washington Nationals000000312690
Houston Astros010010000291
WP: Patrick Corbin (2-3) • LP: Will Harris (0-1)
PitchingIPHRERBBSOHRERABFPitStrCtctStSStLGBFBLDUnkGScIRISWPAaLIRE24
Zack Greinke6.12222314.682280492371910730620.2470.962.4
Will Harris, BS (1), L (0-1)02110011.86253210110011-0.3571.53-2.0
Roberto Osuna1.12112003.60836191414152010-0.0551.31-0.4
Ryan Pressly0.100000011.121211000110200.0341.150.5
Joe Smith0.12221003.1241510613121000-0.0320.51-1.1
Jose Urquidy0.21000000.903105500120032-0.0290.43-0.3
Team Totals99665326.0040148875110261418706273-0.1920.98-0.9
Will Harris faced 2 batters in the 7th inning

Top of the 7th, Nationals Batting, Behind 0-2, Astros' Zack Greinke facing 2-3-4
Jake Marisnick moves from PH to CF 
George Springer moves from CF to RF 
t70-20---6,(2-2) OWSNAdam EatonZack Greinke-4%16%Groundout: SS-1B
t70-21---2,(1-0) RWSNAnthony RendonZack Greinke11%27%Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF Line)
t71-21---5,(3-1) WSNJuan SotoZack Greinke5%32%Walk
Will Harris replaces Zack Greinke pitching
t71-211--2,(0-1) RRWSNHowie KendrickWill Harris33%65%Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF Line); Soto Scores
t73-21---3,(2-0) WSNAsdrubal CabreraWill Harris3%68%Single to CF (Ground Ball thru SS-2B)
Roberto Osuna replaces Will Harris 

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