Saturday, September 19, 2020

Jim Thome 9 home runs off Rick Reed in 27 at bats. NINE! One home run every 3 AB. THREE! 2002: 7 HR in 16 AB.

 "500" home run hitters biggest victims home runs per at bats. Tuesday, September 15, 2020

The 29 hitters with at least 493 career home runs hit them against 3,405 different pitchers. Partly because of scheduling changes and almost twice as many teams (30 to 16) and starting pitchers throwing way more innings and complete games in the 1920s, ... old timers hit many more home runs against fewer pitchers...

Mays has the most home runs off a pitcher, the 18 off Spahn. But is that partly due to Mays facing Spahn many times? Among the 29 leaders in career home runs Mays has the most at bats (AB) against the pitcher against whom he hit the most home runs: 223. In the table below Mays is number 23 in %Dif, the HR/AB ratio off his biggest victim (most home runs) compared to his ratio for all his home runs. Dif: all-victim. %Dif: Dif/all...

Sorted descending on %Dif.

NameHRABHR/ABPit MaxHRABHR/ABDif%DifName
1Jim Thome6128,42213.76Rick Reed9273.0010.7678.20%Jim Thome
2Gary Sheffield5099,21718.11Jamey Wright6274.5013.6175.15%Gary Sheffield

_________________________

Jim Thome's HR rate against Rick Reed is 78.2% higher than against all pitchers, including Reed.

I tried to run this more universally, not just for the top career home run hitters against the pitchers who gave up the most home runs to them but could not find a way. Anecdotally:

Babe Ruth: From 1916 to 1935, (requiring HR>=9 and AB<=70), Regular Season only, Sorted by AB ascending

NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSSHSFIBBHBPGDPmissG
Jake Miller67602530923610.417.470.9171.38610001
Hod Lisenbee766225211020147.403.513.9521.465000002
Tom Zachary736328309311010.444.521.9211.441000008
George Earnshaw7965191010251314.292.405.7691.17401001
Hooks Dauss9269255110172313.362.522.8991.420004006

The fewest AB Ruth had a against a pitcher against whom Ruth hit at least 9 home runs was 60, more than twice the Jim Thome number against Reed.

Babe Ruth: From 1916 to 1935, (requiring HR>=11), Regular Season only, Sorted by AB ascending

NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSSHSFIBBHBPGDPmissG
Tommy Thomas977936421130174.456.546.9751.521012012
Lefty Stewart11687304112282810.345.500.8281.328010042
Milt Gaston11593345013302012.366.470.8391.308020012
Howard Ehmke147109335111263812.303.483.6701.153008014
Rube Walberg168132373017393115.280.405.6891.094050011
George Uhle197158608111293931.380.503.6521.154006022

Jim Thome: at least 6 home runs against pitchers sorted by AB:

NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSSHSFIBBHBPGDPmissG
Rick Reed3027121091838.444.5001.4811.98100000
Roger Clemens70592270819915.373.457.8981.35501013
Justin Verlander665214207111415.269.424.7121.13600200
Bobby Witt3224100261677.417.5311.3331.86501000
Mike Mussina59531410615613.264.339.623.96200102
Eric Milton43371300612614.351.442.8381.28000000

Thome picked on one Hall of Fame pitcher, Mussina, and two HoF calibre pitchers: Clemens and Verlander. But the AB total anywhere near the 27 Thome had against Reed is 24 against Witt who gave up 6 home runs. 9 is 50% more than 6. Thome's home run rate against Reed is one home run every 3 AB. THREE! Thome's home run rate against Witt is one home run every 4 AB. 4 is 33% more than 3.

Thome's damage against Reed is concentrated and while Thome played for Cleveland and Reed for Minnesota in 2001 and 2002:

https://stathead.com/baseball/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?batter=thomeji01&pitcher=reedri01&post=0

1992 pitching for Kansas City: 0 for 2

1993 pitching for Texas: 0 for 2

2001 2 HR in 7 AB, 3 SO

2002 7 HR in 16 AB, 3 SO, plus a double

That's 9 HR in 23 AB while Reed was pitching for Minnesota. What the heck?

2001 Minnesota Twins:

Record: 85-77, Finished 2nd in AL_Central (Schedule and Results)

Manager: Tom Kelly (85-77)

Pythagorean W-L: 81-81, 771 Runs, 766 Runs Allowed

Reed appeared in 12 games, all starts: 4-6, 5.19 ERA, 12 HR in 67.33 innings

Thome hit 49 HR, 45 off righties like Reed. 47 off starters like Reed. Off Twins 8 HR in 71 AB. In Minnesota 3 HR (1 off Reed) in 37 AB.

2002 Minnesota Twins:

Record: 94-67, Finished 1st in AL_Central (Schedule and Results)

Postseason:
    Lost AL Championship Series (4-1) to Anaheim Angels
    Won AL Division Series (3-2) over Oakland Athletics

Manager: Ron Gardenhire (94-67)

Pythagorean W-L: 86-75, 768 Runs, 712 Runs Allowed

Reed at age 37 led Minnesota in innings pitched: 188.

Games: 33

Starts: 32

HR: 32

ERA: 3.38

ERA+: 118

Home Runs
1.Ortiz • ANA40
2.Byrd • KCR36
3.Sturtze • TBD33
4.Suppan • KCR32
Reed • MIN32
Wright • CHW32
7.Garcia • SEA30
8.Wilson • TBD29
9.May • KCR28
Moyer • SEA28


Thome hit 52 HR, 7 off Reed, 4 in Minnesota. 40 against righties. 11 against Minnesota in 63 AB. 7 in Minnesota in 31 AB.

So what happened between Thome and Reed in 2002?

Max Kepler vs. Trevor Bauer: 5 home runs in 9 AB in 2019. Sunday, September 20, 2020

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