Sunday, December 6, 2020

Best OPS+ in last season: Joe Jackson, David Ortiz, Will Clark, Mickey Mantle, ... Mickey Mantle!?

From 1916 to 2018, during last season, (requiring PA>=500 and OPS+>=120), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+

From stathead.com via baseball-reference.com

OPS+: On Base Percentage (really average) Plus Slugging average adjusted for ball parks and era.

RkPlayerOPS+PAYearAgeTmLgGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPos
1Shoeless Joe Jackson172649192032CHWAL1465701052184220121215614716912.382.444.5891.033*7/9H
2David Ortiz164626201640BOSAL15153779169481381278015862072220.315.401.6201.021*DH/3
3Will Clark145507200036TOTML13042778136302217069369704752.319.418.546.964*3/DH
4Mickey Mantle143547196836NYYAL144435571031411854106797114962.237.385.398.782*3H
5Happy Felsch143615192028CHWAL142556881884015141153725416813.338.384.540.923*8
6Hank Greenberg131510194736PITNL125402711001322574104973401604.249.408.478.885*3/H
7Kirby Puckett130602199535MINAL1375388316939023995618893051532.314.379.515.894*9D/8H645
8Johnny Dickshot127542194535CHWAL130486741471910458483411716183.302.366.407.774*7/H
9Roy Cullenbine125607194733DETAL142464821041812478137451061032.224.401.422.823*3/H
10Bob Johnson125593194539BOSAL14352971148277127463656101353.280.358.425.783*7/H8

Note: In his final season, 1960, Ted Williams had only 390 plate appearances (PA); OPS+ 190. Sixth in home runs with 29 in only 310 at bats (AB).

8. 1960 AL/NL Home Run rates. Wednesday, December 25, 2019

Ted Williams at 41 in his final season leads in PctDif for the fourth time 1954-1960. Maris is second. Maris AL MVP in his first Yankee season; HR splits: 13 home, 26 road. Mantle leads AL in HR fourth and final time.

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It's really David Ortiz; his OPS+ 164 in his last season was much higher than his career 141. Both Joe Jackson and Happy Felsch had premature final seasons in 1920 because they were two of the eight men out from the "Black Sox" scandal: eight members of the Chicago White Sox were suspended for life for taking money from gamblers to intentionally lose the 1919 World Series to the Cincinnati Reds.

The biggest surprise is Mickey Mantle. His final four seasons were well below his numbers for his previous 13. Mantle couldn't hit anymore in 1968. His righty numbers against lefty pitchers were worse than his lefty numbers against righty pitchers:

ISplitGGSPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+sOPS+
vs RHP11740531638781411140418483.247.403.402.805127111354.298106154
vs LHP57142119192500714212215.210.331.387.71846600122.18483122

In the rest of his career (OPS+ 172) Mantle hit much better with his natural righty batting. In 1968 Mantle couldn't even bunt for hits: 1 for 10 with 5 strike outs.

So why does Mantle have such a high OPS+ in his last season, even though it's considerably less than his career OPS+ 172?

BB 1968: Mantle 2nd

1.Yastrzemski • BOS119
2.Mantle • NYY106
3.Foy • BOS84
4.McAuliffe • DET82
5.Andrews • BOS81
6.Ward • CHW76
Tresh • NYY76
8.Robinson • BAL73
White • NYY73
Powell • BAL73

Mantle's 106 walks (84 batting lefty) pushed his OBP up to .385 despite only a .237 BA. 1968 AL BA with pitchers still batting: .230. While .385 is far below his career .421:

OBP 1968: Mantle 3rd

1.Yastrzemski • BOS.426
2.Robinson • BAL.390
3.Mantle • NYY.385
4.Monday • OAK.371
5.Andrews • BOS.368
6.Freehan • DET.366
7.Buford • BAL.367**
8.Oliva • MIN.357
9.Harrelson • BOS.356
10.Horton • DET.352

OPS 1968: Mantle 9th

1.Yastrzemski • BOS.922
2.Horton • DET.895
3.Howard • WSA.890
4.Harrelson • BOS.874
5.Robinson • BAL.834
6.Oliva • MIN.833
7.Freehan • DET.819
8.Buford • BAL.804**
9.Mantle • NYY.782
10.Allison • MIN.780

OPS+ 1968: Mantle 8th

1.Yastrzemski • BOS171
2.Howard • WSA171
3.Horton • DET165
4.Harrelson • BOS155
5.Robinson • BAL153
6.Oliva • MIN145
7.Freehan • DET145
8.Mantle • NYY143
9.Monday • OAK141
10.Jackson • OAK138

1968 was the year of the pitcher. Carl Yastrzemski was the only AL batter with .300 BA: .301 But why did teams walk Mantle so much in 1968? 

Could Mickey Mantle still hit in his final season? Only in "Casino". Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Why take a chance? That's the conclusion reached in the 1995 movie Casino when the Mafia leaders are deciding the fate of Andy Stone played by Alan King. They go around the table stating what a stand-up guy Stone is until they get to the final leader, Remo, who says "Why take a chance?". They all nod in agreement and there's a quick switch to the next scene with Andy Stone being shot in a parking lot...

Mick also had career lows in:
SLG .398
OPS .784
BA righty at home: .190
SLG lefty road: .326 ...

Mantle's OPS+, boosted almost exclusively by his 106 walks, was his third worst:
1968 143
1965 137
1951 117
career 172 ...

Mantle couldn't hit righty and he couldn't even bunt. He must have been frustrated and humiliated. That's why he retired.

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