Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Aaron Judge 502 PA once. Mickey Mantle 14 times. Career: Judge 1,923; Mantle 9,910.

Aaron Judge

Position: Rightfielder

Bats: Right  •  Throws: Right

6-7282lb (201cm, 127kg)

Team: New York Yankees (majors)

Born: April 261992 (Age: 29-002d) in Linden, CA

Debut: August 13, 2016 (Age 24-109d, 18,843rd in MLB history)




In 2017 Aaron Judge was American League (AL) Rookie of the Year and selected to the All Star team. He played in 155 games and had 678 plate appearances (PA). In the next two full seasons Judge had these PA: 498, 447. To qualify for the league lead in an average stat like batting average (BA), a player needs at least 502 PA. That's a pretty low threshold. Four PA divided into 502 equals about 126 games, about 78% of the 162 scheduled games.

2017 is the only season in which Aaron Judge led the AL in any batting stat: Runs, HR (52), BB, SO (208).

Aaron Judge age 29: many fewer PA than Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, Jeter through birthday 29. Monday, April 26, 2021

DiMaggio reached age 29 in 1943 while he was in the U.S. Army during World War II (1943-1945), so his PA through his age 27 season are used in the table below. DiMaggio had more than twice as many PA as Judge on their 29th birthdays...

Judge has many fewer PA for two basic reasons:

Judge started when he was older.

Judge has missed many games because of injury, even more than injury prone DiMaggio and Mantle. And DiMaggio lost time in military service. Judge has gotten the 502 PA to qualify for the lead in an average in a season only once.

This means that Judge is already at his peak, if not past it. His value is much less because of that.

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Through his 29th birthday April 26, 2021 Aaron Judge had 1,918 PA. Mickey Mantle age 29: 6,054.

An ac hoc query of players in their 20s for seasons 2015-2020 showed players such as Mike Trout (2014, 2016, 2019 AL MVP) and Christian Yelich (2018 NL MVP) with at least 502 PA in all five 2015-2019 and also qualified in the short 2020 season, which Judge did not.

In addition to Judge, players ages 25-29 with at least 502 PA in only one recent season include these who could reasonably have had more:

AJ Pollock 2015, age 27

Derek Norris 2015, age 26

Brock Holt 2015, age 27

Mitch Haniger 2018, age 27

In other words, a short list. Mickey Mantle (playing 154, not 162 through 1960) had at least 502 PA 1952-1962, 1964, 1967, 1968.

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