Saturday, December 18, 2021

Should Sacrifice Flies (SF) be in the Home Run rate: (AB+SF)/HR?

Sacrifice Flies (SF) is a stupid scoring rule that has come and gone over the years and even been included in sacrifice bunts, which are called Sacrifice Hits (SH) for some reason. Rather than encouraging sacrifice, it encourages swinging for the fences regardless of whether that's best for the team. And game score and inning are not considered.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/standard-stats/sacrifice-fly

A sacrifice fly occurs when a batter hits a fly-ball out to the outfield or foul territory that allows a runner to score. The batter is given credit for an RBI...

A sacrifice fly does not count as an at-bat and therefore does not count against a player's batting average... However, sacrifice flies count against a player's on-base percentage.

The sacrifice fly was adopted as an official rule in 1954, at which point it was distinguished from the sacrifice bunt. Before 1954, Major League Baseball went back and forth as to whether a sacrifice fly should be counted statistically. In the years that it was counted (1908-31 and '39), it was grouped together with the sacrifice bunt as simply a "sacrifice."

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In the previous post the batter with the best Home Run rate relative to his league and year did it in 1937 when the SF scoring rule was not used. In other words if he hit what since 1954 would be a SF, it counted against his batting average (BA) and therefore in my equation.

Best rookie Home Run hitter: Pete Alonso or Aaron Judge? Maybe Mark McGwire? Frank Robinson, Wally Berger, ...? Saturday, December 18, 2021

Rudy York is our champ with 35 Home Runs in 1937 in only 375 AB...

This post will look at the Home Run rate: AB/HR. Lower is better.

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How much might it matter in my previous post? I don't want to do that post all over again, especially if the impact would have been minimal. Through 2021 batters have had at least ten SF in a season 400 times; 22 times at least 14 SF. Here are the season leaders in SF:

RankPlayer (age that year)Sacrifice FliesYearPABats
1.Gil Hodges+ (30)191954678R
2.Andre Dawson+ (28)181983698R
3.Bobby Bonilla (33)171996693B
 Roy White (27)171971634B
5.Juan Gonzalez (31)162001595R
 Mark Loretta (32)162004707R
7.Albert Belle (31)151998706R
 Bobby Bonilla (27)151990686B
 Gary Carter+ (32)151986573R
 Howard Johnson (30)151991658B
 Francisco Lindor (22)152016684B
 Don Mattingly (24)151985727L
 Magglio Ordonez (26)152000665R
14.Albert Belle (26)141993693R
 George Bell (29)141989664R
 Jose Cardenal (27)141971559R
 George Hendrick (32)141982569R
 Dave Kingman (35)141984613R
 Dave Parker (39)141990669L
 Ron Santo+ (29)141969687R
 J.T. Snow (32)142000627L
 Miguel Tejada (30)142004725R

It's worth noting that the all time record was set by Gil Hodges in the first year of the SF rule being made permanent. Could the official scorers have been lenient in applying, especially in Brooklyn? Only 5 of Hodges 19 SF in Brooklyn. SF 1954-1960 before expansion:

YearALNL
1954370425
1955360338
1956329315
1957337350
1958322322
1959312304
1960348344

NL SF in that first year 1954 was way higher than any of the other years in either league.

Let's see how Hodges 1954 Home Run rate would be impacted.

PlayerYearHRABAB/HRL AB/HRDif% Dif
Hodges19544257913.7937.7323.9463.46%
Hodges19544259814.2438.1123.8762.64%

% Dif less than one percent change with SF included in rates for both Hodges and the NL. I hope SF is not what got Hodges elected to the Hall of Fame last week by that ancient committee.

1954-2021:

Biggest difference between AB/HR and (AB+SF)/HR for the AL and NL:

AL: 1976  .56

NL: 1981  .53 (short season)

NL: 1976  .50

Both AL and NL 1976? That's quite a coincidence.

Most SF 1954-2021:

AL: 1979: 765;   76,704 AB; 12 teams

NL: 2000: 809;   88,743 AB; 16 teams

It would be more accurate but doesn't seem worth the bother. It's still a stupid scoring rule.

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