Tuesday, March 7, 2023

More on: Which is better: 4 for 4, all singles or 1 for 4, a home run?

Read the previous post first:

Which is better: 4 for 4, all singles or 1 for 4, a home run?
Sunday, March 5, 2023

But the point of this post is that home runs are absolute.

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The point was that the home run is always a run but the four singles are not always twice as many, and may be zero runs.

Using stathead.com for American or National League games:

For single games, Team Lost, in the regular season, requiring Runs = 0 and At Bats = 4 and Singles = 4 and Hits = 4 and Runs Batted In = 0, sorted by descending Date.

Click this link to view all 177 games lost in which a batter was 4 for 4 (all singles) and that batter neither scored nor drove in a run.

In 42 (23.7%) of those 177 games, the team with a 4 for 4 batter was shut out. In another 47 games that team scored only one run. Combined that's 89 of 177: 50%. Etc.:

RunsgamesPctCum Pctcum games
04223.7%23.7%42
14726.6%50.3%89
24424.9%75.1%133
3179.6%84.7%150
4158.5%93.2%165
5116.2%99.4%176
610.6%100.0%177
Total177100.0%

In 75% of the 177 games the team scored 2 runs or fewer. To repeat, in none of the 177 games did the batter who was 4 for 4 (all singles)  score or drive in a run: Runs 0, RBI 0.

The four hits could have helped the team with other batters who produced runs but overall these teams scored more than 2 runs in only 25% of the 177 games. The top of the order may have batted an extra time.

Lots of hits don't always produce lots of runs.

For single games, from 1901 to 2022, in the regular season, requiring Team Runs Allowed = 0 and Hits Allowed >= 12 and Innings Pitched = 9, sorted by descending Hits Allowed.

Click this link to view the 29 games found.

14 hits: 2

13 hits: 11

12 hits: 16

I don't know if there was a 4 for 4 batter in any of these games.

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