Which is better: 4 for 4, all singles or 1 for 4, a home run?

After reading this, please read part two:

More on: Which is better: 4 for 4, all singles or 1 for 4, a home run? Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Bonus: At the bottom of this post are three examples of a fair fly ball hit over the fence but the batter not getting a home run because of a base running mistake.

wRC+ v. OPS+ top 25 career. Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Here they are in rank order with their OPS+ difference.  Positive means ranked higher in OPS+.  Negative means ranked lower in OPS+.

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In my 2013 post the top six batters are the same with Babe Ruth and Ted Williams 1 and 2 in both. The rest of the 25 correlate pretty closely.

I read an article in the SABR Research Journal, spring 2022: "A Baseball Statistic from the Fourth Dimension" by John F. Scoggins.

My blog post from 2013 may be relevant, at least to me. I am not a statistician, obviously.

A home run is absolute: it's actually a run, not just the possibility of a run: real v. theoretical. My position for years has been that 1 HR for 4 is better than 4 singles for 4 because the team is assured of a run and cannot be shut out. I don't know how that absoluteness impacts complex equations like wRC+ or individual run production (IRP) in the Scoggins article but it seems to me that a home run in baseball cannot be treated like all the other possible outcomes.

maximum possible runs:

4 for 4: 8 runs if there are runners on second and third for each single.

1 home run for 4: 7 runs if the bases are loaded for the homer; plus 3 if the three outs drive in a run.

minimum possible runs:

4 for 4: zero

1 home run for 4: one

Is individual run production (IRP) a Scoggins concept or is it more universal?

"A Baseball Statistic from the Fourth Dimension" by Scoggins

... individual run production (IRP) ...

The raw data used ... obtained from Retrosheet ... 13,099,124 PAs by 13,174 batters in 173, 947 games played from 1918 to 2019...

Notice that the IRP difference between a home run and an out ... is approximately double the difference between a single and an out ... Remember that slugging percentage assumes this ratio is four , not two. Of course, this is true only for the special case when the bases are empty and there are no outs. But even under different conditions, a home run is worth far less than four singles, on average closer to three...

Table 5 ... ranks the top 25 players by career IRP. Only players with at least 3,000 plate appearances during the 1918-2019 timespan are ranked. For comparison ... ranks each player's OPS ...

The first thing to note is how similar the two rankings are. The top seven players are the same ... Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Lou Gehrig are at the top of both lists.

john@scogginsconsulting.com

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There's more detail about this IRP stat in the article.

How does IRP relate/correlate to wRC+ (weighted Runs Created +)?

Why is IRP compared to OPS and not to OPS+?

OPS: averages: On base Plus Slugging.

OPS+: OPS adjusted for ballpark and era.

But the point of this post is that home runs are absolute. A mistake in running out a home run means that it is not a home run. Three examples:

In 1931 Lou Gehrig tied Babe Ruth for most American League home runs at 46 but Gehrig lost a home run for passing teammate Lyn Lary on the bases:

Sunday, April 26, 1931

Attendance: 14,000

Venue: Griffith Stadium

Game Duration: 2:32

Day Game, on grass

Senators 9, Yankees 7

It appears to be in the first inning. Lary was on first base when Gehrig hit one over the fence but Lary thought it had been caught and left the base path. Gehrig was credited with a triple but was declared out at home.

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Tuesday, May 26, 1959

Start Time: 8:00 p.m. Local

Attendance: 19,194

Venue: County Stadium

Game Duration: 2:54

Night Game, on grass

Braves 1, Pirates 0 in 13 innings

Lefty Pirate pitcher Harvey Haddix threw 12 perfect innings but it was 0-0. In the bottom of the 13th: Mantilla safe on error, sac by Mathews, IBB to Hank Aaron. Then Joe Adcock hit one over the fence:

Double to CF (Deep CF-RF); Mantilla Scores/unER; Aaron to 3B; Adcock out at 2B/SS; Joe Adcock hit the ball into the right center stands for a homerun, but was declared out for passing Henry Aaron between 2B and 3B; Aaron thought the ball had landed inside the fence; 1B Umpire Frank Dascoli ruled the final score was 2 to 0 but was overruled by NL President Warren Giles who said that since it was only a double, then only one run was needed to win the game;

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Sunday, October 17, 1999

Start Time: 4:09 p.m. Local

Attendance: 55,723

Venue: Shea Stadium

Game Duration: 5:46

Day Game, on grass

Mets 4, Braves 3 in 15 innings

1999 NLCS: the win still left the Mets down 3-2 in games.

The Braves took a 3-2 lead in the top of the 15th. The Mets loaded the bases in the bottom of the 15th and the Braves walked in a run to tie the game. But Robin Ventura hit one over the fence for a grand slam ... single. His Met teammates mobbed Ventura preventing him from even reaching second base. Only the runner on third base scored. 

The next day the Mets lost the next game and the series: 10-9 in 11 innings.

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WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and wRC+: can they be explained? Friday, August 8, 2014