Thursday, December 26, 2024

Rickey Henderson is overrated. After 1990 MVP at age 31: highest WAR is 5.6.

He was born on Christmas day.

Rickey Henderson

Position: Leftfielder

Bats: Right  •  Throws: Left

5-10180lb (178cm, 81kg)

Born: December 251958 in Chicago, IL us

Died: December 202024 (Aged 65-361d)

Last Game: September 19, 2003 (Age 44-268d)
   vs. SFG 0 AB, 0 H, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB

Hall of Fame: Inducted as Player in 2009. (Voted by BBWAA on 511/539 ballots)

He was a physical phenomenon. He was still playing at age 44. He led the American League (AL) in steals in 1998 at age 39 with 66 SB. But his WAR in 1998 was only 2.3: 2.9 oWAR, -1.0 dWAR (they are not supposed to add up to WAR).

In 1982 he broke the season record for SB: 130. He also led the AL in CS and BB. WAR 6.7: 5.7 oWAR, 0.5 dWAR.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/1982-batting-leaders.shtml

WAR Position Players
1.Yount • MIL10.6
2.DeCinces • CAL7.6
3.Henderson • OAK6.7
4.Harrah • CLE6.6
5.Evans • BOS6.5
6.Wilson • KCR6.3
7.Molitor • MIL6.2
8.Brett • KCR6.0
9.Murphy • OAK5.9
10.Bell • TEX5.7

In that 1982 season Henderson was third in WAR.

His two highest season WAR were both 9.9 when he led AL in oWAR:

1985 NYY: 8.6 oWAR, 1.5 dWAR
1990 OAK: 8.4 oWAR, 1.1 dWAR

Henderson led the league in WAR those two seasons and also in 1989 with 8.7.

Henderson followed 1990 with 4.6 WAR in almost exactly the same number of games and Plate Appearances (PA).

His highest WAR after 1990 (age 31) was 5.6 in 1992 in only 117 games.

Through 1992 Henderson had played only for Oakland and the Yankees (1985-1989 (65 games)). After that he bounced around: 

Toronto
back to Oakland for a third time
San Diego
Angels
back to Oakland for a fourth and final time
Mets
Seattle
back to San Diego for a second time
Boston
LA Dodgers

Henderson's last season over 100 games was with San Diego in 2001 (age 42):

123 games
465 PA
0.5 WAR (1.5 oWAR, -1.4 dWAR)

But some of his contemporaries speak very highly of Rickey Henderson. Didn't Yankee teammate Don Mattingly say that Rickey was the best guy he ever played with?

So why the disparity?

Rickey was flashy and base stealing by anyone is flashy. But, it's like this movie scene (click the image):

Indiana Jones - Raiders Of The Lost Ark (1981) - Sword Fight


Rickey is the guy flashing the sword. And Indiana Jones is any guy hitting a home run, the only real number among estimates.

Home Run leaders had modest numbers during most of Rickey's big years, 1980-1990. 50 Home Run seasons:

1965 NL: Willie Mays 52 MVP
1977 NL: George Foster 52 MVP
1990 AL: Cecil Fielder 51

Ironically, Henderson deprived Fielder of the 1990 AL MVP:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1990.shtml#all_AL_MVP_voting

RankNameTmVote Pts1st PlaceShareWARGABRHHRRBISBBBBAOBPSLGOPS
1Rickey HendersonOAK317.014.081%9.913648911915928616597.325.439.5771.016
2Cecil FielderDET286.010.073%6.515957310415951132090.277.377.592.969

Finally, there's the "greatest leadoff hitter of all time" nonsense.

What does that even mean? Is there a greatest #2? #3? #4?

And if Rickey is the greatest, who was it before Rickey?

I'm a Yankee fan and I liked Rickey Henderson when he played for the Yankees. In fact, the Yankees trading Henderson is the reason I came up with:

Never trade a somebody for a bunch of nobodies.

Rickey Henderson was somebody. Just not as big as some believe.

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