WAR: Wins Above Replacement
WADJ: Wins Above Derek Jeter
I recently wrote a couple of goofy posts about WADJ but they got me thinking about the fact that all great players were originally replacement players, i.e., someone who had just become a MLB player and who would replace a starter.
Jeter played 15 games in 1995 but was a 21 year old rookie in 1996. Thirty-three year old Tony Fernandez played 108 games in 1995, his only season with the Yankees, as their starting shortstop. However, Fernandez was injured and did not play in 1996. Enter Derek Jeter, replacement player.
Now the replacement player in WAR is not a specific player but a statistically tweaked approximation of a marginal player at a position in a particular season. In this case, probably a player not as good as Derek Jeter.
Jeter's WAR in 1996 was 3.0. Fernandez's WAR in 1995 was .6, which is a bit misleading since Fernandez played in only 66% of Yankee games in 1995. However, we can reasonably assume, to the extent that WAR is accurate, that Jeter added about 2.5 wins. In 1996 the Yankees won their division with 92 wins, four more than Boston, and won the World Series for the first time since 1978.
Let's look at another Yankee shortstop from another era and the flesh and blood human being who replaced him on the field. In 1961 Tony Kubek was 25 years old and had completed his fifth full season as a Yankee, the undisputed starting shortstop in 1960 and 1961. The Yankees won pennants each of those seasons except 1959 and had won the World Series in 1958 and 1961. Kubek was also fulfilling his mandatory military obligation as an Army reservist and his unit was activated because of the Berlin crisis. The Yankees needed to replace Kubek at the start of the 1962 season.
In 1961 Tom Tresh had played 9 games for the Yankees. In spring training 1962 Tresh competed for Kubek's open shortstop spot against Phil Linz; both were 23. Tresh won the job, made the All Star team and was Rookie of the Year. Tresh played shortstop until August 17 in Kansas City when he switched to left field.
Kubek returned from the Army and played his first game in 1962 on August 7 ... in left field. He played left field in five more games and pinch hit in three others. Kubek and Tresh essentially switched positions in that August 17 game. Tresh did not play shortstop again in 1962 but became a starting Yankee outfielder for the next several seasons, primarily in left. Kubek played only shortstop for the remainder of the 1962 season (Yanks won 1962 WS and 1963, 1964 pennants) and remained the Yankees starting shortstop through 1965 when he was forced to retire at age 29 because of injuries. During the 1969 season the Yankees traded the often injured Tresh to Detroit after which Tresh retired at age 30.
There are probably other threads of such replacements, not only between Kubek and Jeter but for all teams. It's interesting to note that the replacement player is not just a theory. Baseball is a game of blood, sweat and tears.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Protect the Fans!
Last night I was watching multiple sporting events concurrently, really the only civilized way to do it. I go to the two TV offense, which may evolve into a home sports bar type three TV offense.
- NBA playoff game: San Antonio v. Oklahoma City (Try finding two small markets in the MLB semi-finals)
- Mets v. Phillies
- Red Sox v. Verlander and Detroit
- later Yankees at wherever the Angels currently claim as home.
While cruising past the Red Sox game at Fenway Park I noticed that a man sitting in what is generally considered to be one of the best seats, near a dugout, had apparently been hit by a foul ball struck by Prince Fielder of Detroit. There was some concern and the injured person was helped away for medical attention.
We've seen this many times. So why don't we take corrective action, the type that would be considered basic common sense in any normal context. Why isn't MLB considered negligent for not making its ball parks more safe for fans? Why doesn't some municipality take action? Why don't fans sue?
About 11-12 years ago Yankee coach Don Zimmer, about 70 at the time, was hit in the head by a batted ball while sitting in the dugout, I think during a World Series game; Zimmer was not seriously injured. The Yankee players made fun of it my fashioning a military style helmet for Zimmer to wear in subsequent games.
MLB took action. After 100 years of neglect it erected screened fences in front of all dugouts in MLB parks. This was to protect those in the dugouts, most of whom are or were world class athletes. However, no such protection was extended to the fans sitting in the same area.
Maybe someone can corroborate this but I seem to recall that a Japanese ball park in which the Yankees opened the regular season about a decade ago had the protective screen behind home plate extend down each line, maybe to the foul poles but I cannot recall. MLB needs to do that. Extend that screen as far as is necessary to protect fans who are unable or unwilling to protect themselves and to protect minor children who cannot make informed decisions.
- NBA playoff game: San Antonio v. Oklahoma City (Try finding two small markets in the MLB semi-finals)
- Mets v. Phillies
- Red Sox v. Verlander and Detroit
- later Yankees at wherever the Angels currently claim as home.
While cruising past the Red Sox game at Fenway Park I noticed that a man sitting in what is generally considered to be one of the best seats, near a dugout, had apparently been hit by a foul ball struck by Prince Fielder of Detroit. There was some concern and the injured person was helped away for medical attention.
We've seen this many times. So why don't we take corrective action, the type that would be considered basic common sense in any normal context. Why isn't MLB considered negligent for not making its ball parks more safe for fans? Why doesn't some municipality take action? Why don't fans sue?
About 11-12 years ago Yankee coach Don Zimmer, about 70 at the time, was hit in the head by a batted ball while sitting in the dugout, I think during a World Series game; Zimmer was not seriously injured. The Yankee players made fun of it my fashioning a military style helmet for Zimmer to wear in subsequent games.
MLB took action. After 100 years of neglect it erected screened fences in front of all dugouts in MLB parks. This was to protect those in the dugouts, most of whom are or were world class athletes. However, no such protection was extended to the fans sitting in the same area.
Maybe someone can corroborate this but I seem to recall that a Japanese ball park in which the Yankees opened the regular season about a decade ago had the protective screen behind home plate extend down each line, maybe to the foul poles but I cannot recall. MLB needs to do that. Extend that screen as far as is necessary to protect fans who are unable or unwilling to protect themselves and to protect minor children who cannot make informed decisions.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Free substitution: caddy, designated runner, courtesy runner.
I have been advocating free substitution in baseball for a while.
Here are some silly examples of how managers have tried to creatively substitute.
1. Caddy: Ross Moschitto played in 96 games (28 PA) in 1965 and 14 games (11 PA) in 1967 for the Yankees and never started. He was known as Mickey Mantle's caddy, often replacing the aging Mantle in center field in 1965. Moschitto never attempted to steal a base. Wouldn't it have been better if Moschitto could have shared the duty with Mantle, playing the field with Mantle batting?
2. Designated Runner: Herb Washington (1974 92 games, 1975 13 games) was a sprint champion hired by the Oakland As as a pinch running specialist, a designated runner (DR). Boston started it's historic comeback against the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS by having pinch runner Dave Roberts steal second base in the ninth inning against Mariano Rivera and score the tieing run on a single; it was the only steal attempt by Roberts in that series. The Yankees had their own pinch runner specialist in Homer Bush in 1998 and briefly in 2004.
3. Courtesy Runners (retrosheet.org):
Until 1950, a courtesy runner was allowed for a player if that player had been injured and at the moment couldn't continue. The original player then stayed in the game defensively in the next inning, although sometimes the injured player did not return. If the replacement runner was already in the game, we still count this as a courtesy runner. Most often the courtesy runner was already in the lineup.
This one is amazing. MLB players actually left games and were allowed to return. And the earth continued to rotate on its axis, the sun stayed where it belongs and baseball did not explode.
So what the heck? Obviously, free substitution is a viable reform. Baseball fans and MLB, Inc. need to leap into the current millenium and transform baseball into a much more dynamic sport with rules more in line with those of football and basketball.
Here are some silly examples of how managers have tried to creatively substitute.
1. Caddy: Ross Moschitto played in 96 games (28 PA) in 1965 and 14 games (11 PA) in 1967 for the Yankees and never started. He was known as Mickey Mantle's caddy, often replacing the aging Mantle in center field in 1965. Moschitto never attempted to steal a base. Wouldn't it have been better if Moschitto could have shared the duty with Mantle, playing the field with Mantle batting?
2. Designated Runner: Herb Washington (1974 92 games, 1975 13 games) was a sprint champion hired by the Oakland As as a pinch running specialist, a designated runner (DR). Boston started it's historic comeback against the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS by having pinch runner Dave Roberts steal second base in the ninth inning against Mariano Rivera and score the tieing run on a single; it was the only steal attempt by Roberts in that series. The Yankees had their own pinch runner specialist in Homer Bush in 1998 and briefly in 2004.
3. Courtesy Runners (retrosheet.org):
Until 1950, a courtesy runner was allowed for a player if that player had been injured and at the moment couldn't continue. The original player then stayed in the game defensively in the next inning, although sometimes the injured player did not return. If the replacement runner was already in the game, we still count this as a courtesy runner. Most often the courtesy runner was already in the lineup.
This one is amazing. MLB players actually left games and were allowed to return. And the earth continued to rotate on its axis, the sun stayed where it belongs and baseball did not explode.
So what the heck? Obviously, free substitution is a viable reform. Baseball fans and MLB, Inc. need to leap into the current millenium and transform baseball into a much more dynamic sport with rules more in line with those of football and basketball.