Alex Rodriguez 2015 home run projections.

Alex Rodriguez has not been given much chance of hitting a significant number of home runs in 2015.  Rodriguez will be trying to hit homers in the least favorable environment of his career.  Through 2013 Rodriguez has 654 home runs.  Here are the only players with at least 600 homers:

Rk	Player	HR	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Barry Bonds	762	1986	2007	21-42	2986	12606	9847	2227	2935	601	77	1996	2558	688	1539	106	4	91	165	514	141	.298	.444	.607	1.051	*78H/D9	PIT-SFG
2	Hank Aaron	755	1954	1976	20-42	3298	13941	12364	2174	3771	624	98	2297	1402	293	1383	32	21	121	328	240	73	.305	.374	.555	.928	*9783DH/45	MLN-ATL-MIL
3	Babe Ruth	714	1914	1935	19-40	2504	10622	8399	2174	2873	506	136	2214	2062		1330	43	113		2	123	117	.342	.474	.690	1.164	971/H83	BOS-NYY-BSN
4	Willie Mays	660	1951	1973	20-42	2992	12496	10881	2062	3283	523	140	1903	1464	192	1526	44	13	91	251	338	103	.302	.384	.557	.941	*8H/39675	NYG-SFG-NYM
5	Alex Rodriguez	654	1994	2013	18-37	2568	11344	9818	1919	2939	519	30	1969	1240	92	2075	169	16	101	240	322	76	.299	.384	.558	.942	65D/H	SEA-TEX-NYY
6	Ken Griffey	630	1989	2010	19-40	2671	11304	9801	1662	2781	524	38	1836	1312	246	1779	81	8	102	199	184	69	.284	.370	.538	.907	*89DH/73	SEA-CIN-CHW
7	Jim Thome	612	1991	2012	20-41	2543	10313	8422	1583	2328	451	26	1699	1747	173	2548	69	1	74	165	19	20	.276	.402	.554	.956	3D5H	CLE-CHW-LAD-MIN-BAL-PHI
8	Sammy Sosa	609	1989	2007	20-38	2354	9896	8813	1475	2408	379	45	1667	929	154	2306	59	17	78	202	234	107	.273	.344	.534	.878	*98D/H7	CHW-CHC-BAL-TEX

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/29/2015.

Rodriguez has the fourth most at bats (AB) among the eight.  Ruth has the fewest.

For his career Rodriguez has homered about every 15 AB.  That's AB, not plate appearances (PA).  Here are his home run rates for recent seasons:

Year	AB	HR	AB/HR
2009	444	30	14.80
2010	522	30	17.40
2011	373	16	23.31
2012	463	18	25.72
2013	156	7	22.29
2014
2015	400	16	25.00
2015	450	18	25.00
2015	500	20	25.00

One home run every 25 AB seems reasonable, especially considering how much power Rodriguez has generated in exhibition games this spring.  Pretty much all of the nonsensical predictions of his demise even before the start of the regular season have faded away.  Now it's mostly how many AB Rodriguez can get.  Implicit in that is a HR rate and a resulting number of HR.  We seem forever stuck with HR totals, not HR rates.

Above are actual HR rates for recent seasons and then possible totals based on a rate of one homer every 25 AB.  500 AB with a HR rate of 20 would yield 25 HR.

Alex Rodriguez: why do people think A-Rod will break down in spring training? PED voodoo?  Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Rodriguez is one year younger than former best buddy and former Yankee teammate Derek Jeter.  Jeter played a significant amount in 2014, primarily at shortstop, and performed pretty well for a 40 year old player.  Jeter had played only 17 games in 2013, so he was about as rusty as Rodriguez will be in 2015.
___________________________________