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Sunday, March 29, 2015

Alex Rodriguez 2015 home run projections.

Alex Rodriguez has not been given much chance of hitting a significant number of home runs in 2015.  Rodriguez will be trying to hit homers in the least favorable environment of his career.  Through 2013 Rodriguez has 654 home runs.  Here are the only players with at least 600 homers:


Rk Player HR From To Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
1 Barry Bonds 762 1986 2007 21-42 2986 12606 9847 2227 2935 601 77 1996 2558 688 1539 106 4 91 165 514 141 .298 .444 .607 1.051 *78H/D9 PIT-SFG
2 Hank Aaron 755 1954 1976 20-42 3298 13941 12364 2174 3771 624 98 2297 1402 293 1383 32 21 121 328 240 73 .305 .374 .555 .928 *9783DH/45 MLN-ATL-MIL
3 Babe Ruth 714 1914 1935 19-40 2504 10622 8399 2174 2873 506 136 2214 2062 1330 43 113 2 123 117 .342 .474 .690 1.164 971/H83 BOS-NYY-BSN
4 Willie Mays 660 1951 1973 20-42 2992 12496 10881 2062 3283 523 140 1903 1464 192 1526 44 13 91 251 338 103 .302 .384 .557 .941 *8H/39675 NYG-SFG-NYM
5 Alex Rodriguez 654 1994 2013 18-37 2568 11344 9818 1919 2939 519 30 1969 1240 92 2075 169 16 101 240 322 76 .299 .384 .558 .942 65D/H SEA-TEX-NYY
6 Ken Griffey 630 1989 2010 19-40 2671 11304 9801 1662 2781 524 38 1836 1312 246 1779 81 8 102 199 184 69 .284 .370 .538 .907 *89DH/73 SEA-CIN-CHW
7 Jim Thome 612 1991 2012 20-41 2543 10313 8422 1583 2328 451 26 1699 1747 173 2548 69 1 74 165 19 20 .276 .402 .554 .956 3D5H CLE-CHW-LAD-MIN-BAL-PHI
8 Sammy Sosa 609 1989 2007 20-38 2354 9896 8813 1475 2408 379 45 1667 929 154 2306 59 17 78 202 234 107 .273 .344 .534 .878 *98D/H7 CHW-CHC-BAL-TEX
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/29/2015.

Rodriguez has the fourth most at bats (AB) among the eight.  Ruth has the fewest.

For his career Rodriguez has homered about every 15 AB.  That's AB, not plate appearances (PA).  Here are his home run rates for recent seasons:


YearABHRAB/HR
20094443014.80
20105223017.40
20113731623.31
20124631825.72
2013156722.29
2014
20154001625.00
20154501825.00
20155002025.00

One home run every 25 AB seems reasonable, especially considering how much power Rodriguez has generated in exhibition games this spring.  Pretty much all of the nonsensical predictions of his demise even before the start of the regular season have faded away.  Now it's mostly how many AB Rodriguez can get.  Implicit in that is a HR rate and a resulting number of HR.  We seem forever stuck with HR totals, not HR rates.

Above are actual HR rates for recent seasons and then possible totals based on a rate of one homer every 25 AB.  500 AB with a HR rate of 20 would yield 25 HR.

Alex Rodriguez: why do people think A-Rod will break down in spring training? PED voodoo?  Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Rodriguez is one year younger than former best buddy and former Yankee teammate Derek Jeter.  Jeter played a significant amount in 2014, primarily at shortstop, and performed pretty well for a 40 year old player.  Jeter had played only 17 games in 2013, so he was about as rusty as Rodriguez will be in 2015.
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