Friday, November 10, 2017

World Series: Yanks 1960. 9 of 9.

1. Sunday in the park
2. Nine game series, eight games and tie
3. Home sweet home
4. Travel
5. Best of Seven WS
6. Sweeps
7. Regular Season
8. Yankees
9. Yanks 1960

This file contain pertinent data:


9. Yanks 1960:

In 1960 the Yankees lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-3 despite scoring at least nine runs in each of four games.  It was considered a great upset by Pittsburgh.  However, in the regular season the Yanks won only two more games: 97 to 95.  The Yanks bettered Pittsburgh per regular season game by only 0.1419355 runs scored minus runs allowed.  Among all 113 WS through 2017 that difference is 46th most, about in the middle.  Among the Yanks 40 WS it ranks 20th, again in the middle.  It was only an upset because the Yankees outscored Pittsburgh 55-27.  Based on regular season data the teams were about even.  This may have been overlooked because of the Yankees reputation and because the Yanks had won their final 15 regular season games.

There is a conventional wisdom that indicates that if Yankee manager Casey Stengel had started pitcher Whitey Ford in game one instead of waiting until game three that the Yankees would have won the 1960 WS.  Ford won games 3 and 6, pitching complete game shutouts in each, the second coming on three days rest.  This supposes that Ford would pitch and win games 1, 4, 7 with three days rest before games 4 and 7.  He was well rested for game one.  The WS was scheduled to go nine days and this made it possible for a pitcher to start three games.  However, Ford never pitched in a WS game seven in his entire career.  Ford started three games in only two WS:
- 1958: 0-1, 4.11 ERA
- 1962: 1-1, 4.12 ERA.

Pittsburgh's Vern Law did start games 1,4,7 in the 1960 WS.  He won the first two but had no decision in game 7:

Pittsburgh Pirates       IP     H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Law                           5      4    3   3   1    0   1

Ford's 1960 game log.

Ford's game log indicates that he usually (25 of 29 starts) got at least 4 days rest during the 1960 regular season.

Less than two months before his two WS shutouts, Ford had pitched consecutive shutouts.  Pitching on 4 days rest at home against Washington on Aug. 13 Ford threw a complete game 3 hit shutout.  Ford next pitched on TWO days rest against Baltimore and again threw a complete game 3 hit shutout.  His next start was on 4 days rest on Aug. 21 in Washington; he allowed one run (earned) on 4 hits in 5 innings and lost.

Ford's 1960 splits.

Ford's splits indicate that in an equal number of innings home and away he had these ERA: 2.51 Home, 3.66 Road.  If Ford started games 1,4,7 they would have been road, home, road.  In September Ford had his highest ERA in 1960: 4.41; second highest: 3.67 in July.  In his 12 wins Ford's ERA was 1.15; in his other games about 4.75.  When Ford was good he was very good.

Art Ditmar, who started game one, had an even worse home road ERA split: 2.29 v. 3.87.  Ditmar's September ERA of 3.11 was his third best.  Ditmar's ERA in his wins was 2.03, less than half his ERA in his other games.  Ditmar led the Yanks with 15 wins.

Bob Turley in 1960 had this home road ERA split: 3.63 v. 2.85.  Turley's 1.72 September ERA was his second best.  Turley's ERA in his wins was 1.84, about half his ERA in his other games.  Even though Turley was only 9-3 in 1960, the 1958 Cy Young award winner was a good choice to start one of the first two games in Pittsburgh.

Pirate batter splits in 1960.

Pirate OPS of top righty batters v. lefty pitchers:
Groat .893 (v. righty pitchers .718)
Clemente 1.033 (v. righty pitchers .717)
Stuart .726 (v. righty pitchers .807 - go figure)

Stuart was and always will be inexplicable.  Of the eight starting players catcher Smoky Burgess was the only lefty batter.  The reserves with the most at bats, Gino Cimoli and Hal Smith, were both righty batters.

Pirate record vs. left-handed starters: 31-17 (.646) , vs. right-handed starters: 64-42 (.604).

Obviously the lefty Ford would have been at a disadvantage against the heavily right hand batting Pirates.  Stengel must have known this.

Could Ford have pitched and won games 1, 4, 7?  Probably not.  It was rarely done.

The Yanks real problem was how the scores lined up.  Almost any realignment results in the Yankees winning.  For instance, if Turley and Ditmar had been switched in the first two games, instead of splitting 4-6, 16-3, the Yanks would sweep 4-3, 16-4 and win the WS 4-2.

In 1956 Stengel could have started Ford in game seven on three days rest.  However, Stengel started Johnny Kucks who pitched a shutout in his only WS start, probably because Stengel did not want to pitch Ford in Ebbets Field against the Dodgers righty batters.  In game one in Ebbets Field Ford allowed five runs in three innings.  George Wilson pinch hit for Ford in the top of the fourth with two out, nobody on base Dodgers leading 5-3; Wilson struck out.   Kucks pitched innings 4 and 5, allowing one run.  Two days later Kucks relieved Larsen in the second inning of game 2: Kucks faced one batter, a single to Reese.

In the Yanks previous WS (1958) with the Yanks trailing Milwaukee in games 3-2 Stengel started Ford in Milwaukee in game six on TWO days rest.  Ford was replaced in the second inning by Ditmar trailing 2-1 with bases loaded one out but the Yanks won 4-3 in 10 innings, then won game seven the next day.  Milwaukee started Spahn and Burdette in games 6 and 7 on TWO days rest.  Both lost.

In 1960 Stengel started Ford in game six on three days rest.  It was Turley's turn.  Turley would have had five days rest in game six.  Had Stengel simply started Turley and Ford in their normal rotation, Yanks would have won both games 6 and 7: 12-10, 9-0.

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