Edwin Encarnacion: all but one team will regret NOT signing him.

Home Run leaders 2012-2016:

Rk	Player	HR	AB	OPS+	PA	From	To	Age	G	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Chris Davis	197	2688	130	3095	2012	2016	26-30	743	442	669	130	1	496	341	36	968	42	1	23	26	11	8	.249	.340	.518	.858	*3/D957H1	BAL
2	Edwin Encarnacion	193	2678	146	3133	2012	2016	29-33	727	451	728	145	3	550	392	33	474	31	0	31	80	27	6	.272	.367	.544	.912	3D/57H	TOR
3	Nelson Cruz	178	2790	134	3098	2012	2016	31-35	734	408	775	144	4	472	259	26	712	28	0	21	59	22	12	.278	.343	.524	.866	*9D/7H	TEX-BAL-SEA
4	Miguel Cabrera	169	2812	166	3224	2012	2016	29-33	745	469	922	177	4	569	368	76	507	18	0	26	113	9	3	.328	.406	.574	.980	*35/DH	DET
5	David Ortiz	163	2425	154	2825	2012	2016	36-40	666	360	712	176	3	502	364	93	415	6	0	30	83	6	2	.294	.383	.570	.953	*D/3H	BOS
6	Mike Trout	163	2874	173	3423	2012	2016	20-24	771	580	890	169	37	481	468	46	754	46	0	35	37	139	28	.310	.410	.564	.975	*87/D9H	LAA
7	Jose Bautista	152	2303	140	2783	2012	2016	31-35	634	423	590	118	4	424	429	18	452	24	1	26	82	28	10	.256	.375	.509	.884	*9/D385H	TOR
8	Adam Jones	150	3110	113	3321	2012	2016	26-30	770	451	864	148	9	451	141	10	612	46	1	23	75	42	12	.278	.317	.476	.792	*8/DH	BAL
9	Mark Trumbo	149	2613	112	2838	2012	2016	26-30	692	344	658	114	10	428	205	14	728	8	0	12	64	13	10	.252	.307	.474	.781	93D7/H5	LAA-ARI-SEA-BAL
10	Chris Carter	147	2171	116	2521	2012	2016	25-29	649	304	480	101	4	367	298	10	834	24	0	27	47	11	5	.221	.318	.474	.793	*3D/7H9	OAK-HOU-MIL
11	Albert Pujols	146	2826	123	3119	2012	2016	32-36	721	379	752	147	1	488	239	51	349	23	0	31	104	23	6	.266	.325	.474	.799	*3D/5H	LAA
12	Todd Frazier	142	2759	113	3069	2012	2016	26-30	750	377	693	141	11	407	246	8	667	35	4	25	62	57	28	.251	.318	.465	.782	*5/3H7D9	CIN-CHW
13	Jay Bruce	141	2798	107	3113	2012	2016	25-29	756	395	678	161	17	460	271	44	760	13	1	29	46	41	16	.242	.309	.463	.772	*9/HD38	CIN-NYM
14	Josh Donaldson	140	2658	139	3068	2012	2016	26-30	704	460	743	157	12	446	348	13	553	33	5	24	69	30	4	.280	.367	.506	.873	*5/DH236	OAK-TOR

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/16/2016.

Of the top 14, three are currently free agents who could be signed by any team:
2. Edwin Encarnacion OPS+ 146
7. Jose Bautista OPS+ 140
9. Mark Trumbo OPS+ 112

Trumbo hit a career high 47 HR in 2016, the most of any player. Trumbo is fairly one dimensional, which is the general knock on sluggers this off season. Encarnacion and Bautista have solid OPS+ (On Base plus Slugging averages adjusted for ball parks and era), so they are not all or nothing players in the batter's box.

One recent explanation for not signing Bautista is that teams are tired of his angry act. Bautista is already 36 years old. Encarnacion, however, will turn 34 January 7. So while he is older than teams want he is by no means ancient. Yet there he sits, waiting for a deal.

Jason Heyward was the big free agent signing a year ago. The Chicago Cubs acted according to the then prevailing wisdom that Jason Heyward would save them so many runs in the outfield and was young enough that he was worth it.

2016	26	Chicago Cubs	$21,666,666	6.000	contracts
2017	27	Chicago Cubs	$28,166,667	7.000
2018	28	Chicago Cubs	$28,166,667		Has right to opt out of contract following 2018 season.
2019	29	Chicago Cubs	$20,000,000		Has right to opt out of contract following 2019 season if he has 550 PA that year.
2020	30	Chicago Cubs	$21,000,000
2021	31	Chicago Cubs	$21,000,000
2022	32	Chicago Cubs	$22,000,000
2023	33	Chicago Cubs	$22,000,000
		Earliest Free Agent: 2024

2016 OPS+ 70. That means that Heyward in the batter's box was 70 percent of league average. In other words he was a good hitting pitcher, just one with 592 plate appearances. Do you think that Heyward will opt out after next season?

Encarnacion HR, AB:
2012 42  542
2013 36  530
2014 34  477
2015 39  529
2016 42  601

The guy will turn 34 in January. Who the heck couldn't use his bat for the next few years? Number five in Home Runs the last five years was David Ortiz, who was 40 years old during the 2016 season. 2012-2016 OPS+ 154.

It seems that general managers would rather follow the prevailing conventional wisdom than basic common sense. Theo Epstein of the Cubs is hailed as a genius for winning championships with two teams that had not won for VERY long times: Red Sox and Cubs. The Cubs won in spite of Epstein signing Heyward to what may be the worst free agent deal of all time.

Should Cubs fire manager Joe Maddon? Thursday, November 3, 2016

Joe Maddon just won the World Series as manager of the Chicago Cubs, their first championship since 1908. Maddon made fundamental mistakes and was lucky they didn't give the title to the Cleveland Indians.

The worst were Maddon's use of monster closer Aroldis Chapman.
__________________________

See, winning makes mistakes acceptable. But it's foolish to copy obvious mistakes. Which brings us to such an example, the continuing madness of Yankee general manager Brian Cashman.

Yankees are beyond stupid: bad and boring. Sign Aroldis Chapman: $86 million, five years. Thursday, December 8, 2016

Aroldis Chapman back in Yankee Stadium in front of hundreds of Yankee fans at 11 PM wondering how 105 MPH fastball pitcher ages. Thursday, December 8, 2016

Pay per inning: Aroldis Chapman $239,000, Masahiro Tanaka $110,000. Friday, December 9, 2016

Paying exorbitant sums for the outdated closer and passing on a slugger. Tuesday, December 13, 2016

The Toronto Blue Jays acquired Edwin Encarnacion from Cincinnati in 2009. It looks like multiple teams made mistakes.

• July 31, 2009: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds with Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart to the Toronto Blue Jays for Scott Rolen.
• November 12, 2010: Selected off waivers by the Oakland Athletics from the Toronto Blue Jays.
• December 2, 2010: Granted Free Agency.
• December 16, 2010: Signed as a Free Agent with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Encarnacion preferred to re-sign with Toronto this off season but turned down $20 million for each of the next four years. Encarnacion may have been foolish. But what about a team like the Yankees? In addition to committing to 29 year old Chapman for $17 million for each of the next five, the Yankees also signed 37 year old Matt Holliday for $13 million but for just one year. But that's $30 million in 2017 for a team that is supposed to be committed to a youth movement. Wouldn't the $30 million have been better spent on Encarnacion who is likely to do something that no Yankee did in 2016 and are unlikely to do in 2017: hit at least 30 home runs?

It's not too late. The Yankees could offer Encarnacion the same deal that he turned down from the Toronto Blue Jays: $80 million for four years. Those would be Encarnacion playing ages 34, 35, 36, 37. That seems perfectly reasonable but maybe just not according to current and fleeting conventional Wisdom.