World Series: how much is it simply how the scores line up? Look at the 1960 Pirate win over the Yankees.

The Houston Astros are the 2017 World Series winners, having defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 in games. In the semi-final round the Astros defeated the New York Yankees 4-3 with the home team winning all seven games. In the WS, Dodgers won game four in Houston and the Astros won games two and seven in Los Angeles.

Even with starting pitchers often going no more than four innings, the starter will almost always pitch more innings in a game than any other pitcher on his team. And in a seven game series the starting pitcher only repeats every third or fourth game. The most important player changes often.

So should victory be attributed to merit or chance? Obviously both are involved but how much? And more to the point, how much is it simply how the scores line up?

In the 2017 WS Houston won two high scoring games in extra innings by one run, each flanked by 3-1 Dodger victories. But for real randomness nothing beats the 1960 4-3 Pirate WS win over the Yankees.

Their 1960 regular season records were comparable, so Yankee dominance might not be expected.

1960 World Series: Pirates 4, Yankees 3:

Baseball is very odd.  Victory in a seven game series is largely based on how the scores line up.  The 1960 WS is the classic example.  Here are the results:

Pirates 6-4

Yankees 16-3

Yankees 10-0

Pirates 3-2

Pirates 5-2

Yankees 12-0

Pirates 10-9

The Yankees losing to St. Louis in 1964 was somewhat similar but 1960 is extreme.

What are the odds that the 1960 scores, if chosen randomly, would result in Pittsburgh winning?  My probability math is very rusty so I don’t know.  Here are the scores in descending order:

Yankees Pirates

16         9

12         6

10         5

9           3

4           3

2           0

2           0

Wow.  Yanks could have won all seven games.

Margin of victory:

Pirates 2

Yankees 13

Yankees 10

Pirates 1

Pirates 3

Yankees 12

Pirates 1

Wow again.  Pirates won their four games by a total of 7 runs, an average of less than 2 runs per win.  Yanks won their three games by 35, an average of almost 12 runs per win.

Yanks out scored Pirates 55-27. Out homered them 10-4. Pirates only hit homers in games one and seven (3). Bill Mazeroski hit the first Pirate homer ... and the last. Yankees homered in six of seven games:

1. Maris, Howard but Pirates won 6-4; Pirate homer: Mazeroski

2. Mantle 2; Yanks won 16-3

3. Richardson, Mantle:; Yanks won 10-0

4. Skowron but Pirates won 3-2

5. Maris but Pirates won 5-2

6. none but Yanks won 12-0

7. Skowron, Berra but Pirates won 10-9; Pirate homers: Nelson, Smith, Mazeroski.

World Series: Yanks 1960. 9 of 9. Friday, November 10, 2017