My basic view is that pitchers are not players. They are part time performers. Pitchers need to perform well at only one of the five fundamental skills:
- hit
- hit with power
- run
- field
- throw.
In Japan Ohtani performed well at at least three:
- hit
- hit with power
- throw.
That at least makes Ohtani very interesting. But baseball in Japan is not major league caliber.
The most likely scenario is that the best that can reasonably be expected of Ohtani is that he will be a competent fourth or fifth starting pitcher. I've already explained anecdotally why Ohtani will fail as a hitter in the U.S. major league.
Shohei Ohtani: Babe Ruth or not even Zelous Wheeler/Kei Igawa? Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Cool or Kool-Aid? I'm not buying either. Pretty much everybody thinks that Shohei Ohtani is sure to succeed in the U.S. Major League. My guess is that as a hitter, Ohtani is a very long shot. As a pitcher, maybe. Ohtani is viewed as Babe Ruth in his youth, both a great starting pitcher and then the great home run hitting slugger we know. If Ohtani plays in the Major League in 2018, that will be exactly 100 years since Ruth led the league in home runs for the first time: tied Tillie Walker at 11...
There's a reason there's only one Babe Ruth. He's the only pitcher who could hit and he stopped pitching to concentrate on hitting. In 100 years no one has come close. With increased specialization, the idea that a guy from Japan will be another Babe Ruth, even if only in skill sets, seems absurd. Pitchers are not players...
It's not clear to me why Ohtani has so few plate appearances and at bats. Why doesn't he simply be the designated hitter (DH) in the games that he does not start as a pitcher? And if he can't in Japan where he pitches only once a week, how will he get 600 PA in the USA? ...
So without doing any heavy lifting and just doing common sense research, I found two failed USA players thriving in the same league in Japan where Ohtani plays...
Hideki Matsui ... came over as "Godzilla" after hitting 50 home runs in his final season in Japan at age 28. Matsui hit 31 homers in his second Yankee season and for seven seasons OPS+ 123. Matsui may be the only hitter from any Asian country to hit 30 or more home runs in the U.S. Major League.
Pitchers from Japan have succeeded in the U.S. Major League but not many hitters and Matsui seems to be the only slugger and Matsui was not a big time home run hitter in the U.S. Major League.
If Shohei Ohtani continues to divide his energy and concentration, he may fail at both. Hitting is by far the most difficult skill and Ohtani is not likely to be an impact Major League hitter. Ohtani is more likely to be a Major League pitcher.
If Shohei Ohtani is another Babe Ruth, that would be a great story that I'd like to see as much as anyone, especially if Ohtani plays for the Yankees. However, I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid.
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This post will compare Ohtani as a pitcher to two active pitchers who have succeeded here in the U.S. major league after being star pitchers in Japan.
Shohei Ohtani
Bats: Left • Throws: Right
6-3, 189
Born: July 5, 1994 (Age: 23 and 210 days)
Yu Darvish
Bats: Right • Throws: Right
6-5, 220
Born: August 16, 1986 (Age: 31 and 168 days)
Masahiro Tanaka
Bats: Right • Throws: Right
6-3, 215
Born: November 1, 1988 (Age: 29 and 91 days)
All three started at age 18 and all three pitched exclusively in the Japan Pacific League (JPPL):
Darvish: Nippon Ham Fighters 2005-2011
Tanaka: Rakuten Golden Eagles 2007-2013Ohtani: Nippon Ham Fighters 2013-2017
In 2013, Ohtani's rookie season, Tanaka was 24-0, 1.27 ERA, 212 innings. That was by far the best season in Japan by any of the three.
All three struggled a bit in their first two seasons. Ohtani was the only one with more total SO than total Innings. Tanaka had the most innings and SO in a season and the most total innings and total SO of the three through age 22.
Ohtani was injured in 2017. Both Darvish and Tanaka were outstanding in their final two seasons in Japan at ages 23 and 24. In his final season Darvish had 276 SO in 232 Innings.
Obviously, both Darvish and Tanaka were better pitchers in Japan than Ohtani, even through age 22. The extra two years of experience that Darvish and Tanaka had before coming to the U.S. major league may have been critical in their immediate success. Ohtani lacks quite a bit that was on their resumes, plus Ohtani has the distraction of also being a hitter, at least batting lefty against righty pitchers. How often, if at all, did Ohtani bat against lefty pitchers?
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