Saturday, August 11, 2018

Times Facing Opponent in Game for 2017 batters vs SP, 3rd and vs. RP, 1st.

We keep hearing that starting pitchers (SP) become ineffective third time through the lineup. Let's look at some data for 2017 for batters with at least 100 plate appearances (PA) third time against a SP.

Data from baseball-reference.com

Worst (OPS < .700) vs SP, 3rd:
RkIPlayerSplitYearGOPSGSPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+sOPS+
1Billy Hamiltonvs. SP, 3rd2017123.55812311625041800525.216.248.31036102001.2677640
2Asdrubal Cabreravs. SP, 3rd2017103.5621039421301800711.223.275.28727301100.2414543
3Maikel Francovs. SP, 3rd2017101.59110192213011000910.228.297.29327500000.2477751
4Nomar Mazaravs. SP, 3rd2017102.60110288165028001316.182.294.30727010021.2006453
5Xander Bogaertsvs. SP, 3rd2017108.62410895197029001214.200.287.33732300111.2136757
6Corey Dickersonvs. SP, 3rd2017108.624108107244141300122.224.231.39342200002.2475153
7Nick Castellanosvs. SP, 3rd2017110.675110102226141500726.216.264.41242200101.2476766
8Freddy Galvisvs. SP, 3rd2017102.6801029225410800917.272.343.33731210000.3339974
9Kyle Seagervs. SP, 3rd2017111.693111952150312001316.221.324.36835220100.2348275
10Dee Gordonvs. SP, 3rd2017131.69613112037310700516.308.346.35042131200.3499577
11Justin Turnervs. SP, 3rd2017106.6961069421703900717.223.302.39437440100.2404774
12Elvis Andrusvs. SP, 3rd2017119.698119111305121200715.270.311.38743400101.2957575

Best (15 batters OPS > 1.000; 32 total had OPS > .900) vs SP, 3rd:
RkIPlayerSplitYearGOPSGSPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+sOPS+
1Giancarlo Stantonvs. SP, 3rd20171341.372134121511401539001020.421.463.909110410221.409167232
2Charlie Blackmonvs. SP, 3rd20171421.25514212551941023001218.408.471.78498032021.423149207
3Aaron Judgevs. SP, 3rd20171091.2491099433811121001331.351.440.80976120010.423133203
4Mike Troutvs. SP, 3rd20171031.197103853052817001518.353.456.74163120120.367121194
5Kris Bryantvs. SP, 3rd20171201.1561209832102821001927.327.442.71470120101.375141184
6Domingo Santanavs. SP, 3rd20171001.139100893160923001127.348.420.71964300001.415156178
7Jake Lambvs. SP, 3rd20171081.136108933172826001424.333.426.71066210011.377165178
8Jonathan Schoopvs. SP, 3rd20171151.0881151053570112600719.333.374.71475410202.312153164
9Ryan Zimmermanvs. SP, 3rd20171001.06910094367062300613.383.420.64961500000.400131163
10Evan Longoriavs. SP, 3rd20171231.0671231124013072000820.357.407.66174420111.384186162
11Jean Seguravs. SP, 3rd20171191.037119108388172000813.352.398.63969410101.348164155
12Edwin Encarnacionvs. SP, 3rd20171141.0361149125101020002222.275.421.61556410022.254134156
13Joey Vottovs. SP, 3rd20171361.0341361023290513003012.314.485.54956240053.318102161
14Jose Ramirezvs. SP, 3rd20171121.0121121023314061500910.324.375.63765100110.310110147
15Khris Davisvs. SP, 3rd20171171.01111710129120824001231.287.368.64465220202.328132147

Some names among the best are not surprising: Stanton, Judge, Trout, Votto, Ramirez.

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Now let's look at how batters did the first time that they faced relief pitcher(s) (RP) in 2017 games. This should suggest whether and when a starting pitcher should be pulled. Keep in mind that first batters faced each time through the batting order are the top of the order. Again we're using 100 PA.

129 batters had OPS less than .700. Of note, at .699: Manny Machado. Here are the worst vs. RP, 1st:

RkIPlayerSplitYearGOPSGSPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+sOPS+
1Andrew Rominevs. RP, 1st201795.46313912623201800730.183.241.22228332100.2295031
2Austin Rominevs. RP, 1st201762.47110597184011000327.186.214.25825112203.2396731
3Joc Pedersonvs. RP, 1st201785.493133113155029001431.133.263.23026160000.1633640
4Gregory Polancovs. RP, 1st2017101.493147141294011100625.206.238.25536300031.2434338
5Danny Espinosavs. RP, 1st201776.49711299140041400855.141.234.26326141010.2509039
6Greg Garciavs. RP, 1st2017111.511142116211107001834.181.304.20724334102.2534647
7Guillermo Herediavs. RP, 1st2017101.51415514027102600928.193.271.24334260003.2275845
8Gorkys Hernandezvs. RP, 1st201794.532138123255106001031.203.272.26032122102.2696350
9Joey Rickardvs. RP, 1st201786.535118111228011000429.198.237.29733420103.2567248
10Chris Owingsvs. RP, 1st201789.537140130287011000634.215.245.29238101303.2764850
11Gregor Blancovs. RP, 1st201768.53810691162114001430.176.286.25323101000.2505653
12Darwin Barneyvs. RP, 1st201787.53913212125402900630.207.250.28935514000.2587950
13Evan Longoriavs. RP, 1st2017142.53923121241121220001745.193.251.28861500221.2344850

Evan Longoria 10th best vs SP, 3rd and 13th worst vs RP. So when SP is facing Longoria third time, bring in a RP!

The Romine brothers were the two worst.

31 batters had OPS greater than .900. Here are the tops vs. RP, 1st:
RkIPlayerSplitYearGOPSGSPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+sOPS+
1J.D. Martinezvs. RP, 1st20171131.14818315950731942002246.314.393.7551201000251.323114212
2Aaron Altherrvs. RP, 1st2017921.06914913141821229001637.313.389.67989410121.349146191
3Adam Lindvs. RP, 1st20171031.0481341194350932001324.361.418.63075300222.386138188
4Mike Troutvs. RP, 1st20171011.0371671253780928003730.296.461.57672230292.31896188
5Jose Altuvevs. RP, 1st20171441.00721718569140628002624.373.461.546101650131.404112181
6Bryce Harpervs. RP, 1st20171061.00417915652121930002035.333.408.59693410252.37799177
7Justin Bourvs. RP, 1st201798.99416614342601337002235.294.386.60887300171.302119173
8Jose Martinezvs. RP, 1st201795.9941361153670818002028.313.412.58367400123.350121175
9Salvador Perezvs. RP, 1st2017105.99216215350110123400623.327.358.63497620120.319149170
10Joey Vottovs. RP, 1st2017147.986233175501001132005337.286.455.531937302120.30292175
11Aaron Judgevs. RP, 1st2017151.98325420053511842005084.265.413.570114320293.35089172
12Freddie Freemanvs. RP, 1st2017116.9771751474990726002428.333.440.53779540092.375101172
13Scooter Gennettvs. RP, 1st2017130.974197181561211450001353.309.355.619112510201.362120166
14Justin Turnervs. RP, 1st2017122.9661831485190525002519.345.459.50775280251.365106170
15Aaron Hicksvs. RP, 1st201780.9591371103160823002129.282.404.55561231200.307125165

Batters among the top 15 both vs SP, 3rd and vs RP, 1st: Trout, Judge, Votto. They would seem to present the opposing manager with the toughest decision whether to replace SP with RP.

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