Thursday, December 13, 2018

Hey, Adam Ottavino, how about facing Babe Ruth FOUR times in a game, not one?

One of the ironies is that 33 year old relief pitcher Adam Ottavino is both mature and intelligent, at least as far as baseball players go. After recently running his mouth about how he would strike out Babe Ruth EVERY time, he wound up with a condescending "shout out" to the Babe. I can only imagine that the Babe would tell Ottavino to insert his "shout out" where the sun don't shine.

Lost in the predictable knee jerk junk from the usual sources on the predictable subjects is that Ottavino doesn't pitch the same amount as pitchers who pitched to the Babe. Back then starting pitchers pitched most if not all of the game. Now, one inning wonders like Ottavino have dominant strike out ratios, in part, because they pitch in only about five percent off their team's innings. They can muscle up and usually face batters only once in a game. So let's look at how often and how well Ottavino does based on facing batters the first, second and third time in a game. Spoiler alert: in his entire career, Ottavino has NEVER faced a batter four times in a game. Data from baseball-reference.com

Times Facing Opponent in Game


ISplitGPAABRH2B3BHRSBCSBBSOSO/WBAOBPSLGOPSTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+
1st PA in G, as SP327242611100242.00.250.308.500.80812001000.263133
2nd PA in G, as SP327256921300231.50.360.407.8801.28722000000.316267
3rd PA in G, as SP315112420000420.50.364.533.5451.0796100011.444215
4th+ PA in G, as SP3000000003000000000
1st PA in G, as RP3631612140316832349534711614412.74.230.315.345.660484372011161912.30692
2nd PA in G, as RP186458718303005142.80.310.365.517.88230201010.366155
3rd+ PA in G, as RP155231000000.600.600.8001.4004000000.600305
Those three games for 4th PA (plate appearance) as SP (staring pitcher) has zero PA and three CS (caught stealing). Ottavino started three of five games in 2010 for St. Louis, his only major league starts. Then 2012-2018 for Colorado: 361 appearances, zero starts, 390 innings, 452 SO (strike outs). For Colorado: AB/SO: 1,426/452=3.15    One SO every 3.15 AB.

Ottavino throws righty. Ruth batted lefty.

Platoon Splits


ISplitGPAABRH2B3BHRSBCSBBSOSO/WBAOBPSLGOPSTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+
vs RHB355106293811820233322456903183.53.215.289.327.617307281371387.29579
vs LHB2956885888416125419255841461.74.274.370.427.79625112763136.333132
vs RHB as RHP355106293811820233322456903183.53.215.289.327.617307281371387.29579
vs LHB as RHP2956885888416125419255841461.74.274.370.427.79625112763136.333132
The platoon splits include his 100 AB as a starter:
vs RHB: 938/318=2.95
vs LHB: 588/146=4.0

Maybe Ottavino forgot that he strikes out lefties much less frequently than righties: (4.0-2.95)/2.95=.3559 That's about 36% less frequently.

AB%SplitGPAABAB/SOSORH2B3BHRBAOBPSLGOPS
95.70%1st PA in G, as RP3631,6121,4033.1844116832349534.230.315.345.660
3.96%2nd PA in G, as RP1864584.1414718303.310.365.517.882
0.34%3rd+ PA in G, as RP155023100.600.600.8001.400
total3821,6811,466455

Even in the roughly four percent of his AB in a second PA, Ottavino has a SO ratio (AB/SO) 30% worse than for the roughly 96% of his AB in a first PA.

Ruth often faced starting pitchers for the third or fourth time as the pitcher tired. Advantage Ruth. Ottavino faces batters only once about 92% of the time. Advantage Ottavino. Somewhere in between would be a fair meeting place. What might happen then is for you to decide. Below are older posts that might help.

Would Aroldis Chapman make Babe Ruth faint? Sunday, March 8, 2015

Many great relief pitchers or not that difficult? Saturday, March 7, 2015

Babe Ruth never batted against Satchel Paige. Neither did Jackie Robinson. Friday, May 29, 2009