Lost in the predictable knee jerk junk from the usual sources on the predictable subjects is that Ottavino doesn't pitch the same amount as pitchers who pitched to the Babe. Back then starting pitchers pitched most if not all of the game. Now, one inning wonders like Ottavino have dominant strike out ratios, in part, because they pitch in only about five percent off their team's innings. They can muscle up and usually face batters only once in a game. So let's look at how often and how well Ottavino does based on facing batters the first, second and third time in a game. Spoiler alert: in his entire career, Ottavino has NEVER faced a batter four times in a game. Data from baseball-reference.com
I | Split | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | GDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB | ROE | tOPS+ | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st PA in G, as SP | 3 | 27 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2.00 | .250 | .308 | .500 | .808 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .263 | 133 | |
2nd PA in G, as SP | 3 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.50 | .360 | .407 | .880 | 1.287 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .316 | 267 | |
3rd PA in G, as SP | 3 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.50 | .364 | .533 | .545 | 1.079 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .444 | 215 | |
4th+ PA in G, as SP | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
1st PA in G, as RP | 363 | 1612 | 1403 | 168 | 323 | 49 | 5 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 161 | 441 | 2.74 | .230 | .315 | .345 | .660 | 484 | 37 | 20 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 12 | .306 | 92 | |
2nd PA in G, as RP | 18 | 64 | 58 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 2.80 | .310 | .365 | .517 | .882 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .366 | 155 | |
3rd+ PA in G, as RP | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .600 | .600 | .800 | 1.400 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .600 | 305 |
Ottavino throws righty. Ruth batted lefty.
I | Split | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | GDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB | ROE | tOPS+ | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
vs RHB | 355 | 1062 | 938 | 118 | 202 | 33 | 3 | 22 | 45 | 6 | 90 | 318 | 3.53 | .215 | .289 | .327 | .617 | 307 | 28 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 7 | .295 | 79 | |
vs LHB | 295 | 688 | 588 | 84 | 161 | 25 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 5 | 84 | 146 | 1.74 | .274 | .370 | .427 | .796 | 251 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 6 | .333 | 132 | |
vs RHB as RHP | 355 | 1062 | 938 | 118 | 202 | 33 | 3 | 22 | 45 | 6 | 90 | 318 | 3.53 | .215 | .289 | .327 | .617 | 307 | 28 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 7 | .295 | 79 | |
vs LHB as RHP | 295 | 688 | 588 | 84 | 161 | 25 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 5 | 84 | 146 | 1.74 | .274 | .370 | .427 | .796 | 251 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 6 | .333 | 132 |
The platoon splits include his 100 AB as a starter:
vs LHB: 588/146=4.0
Maybe Ottavino forgot that he strikes out lefties much less frequently than righties: (4.0-2.95)/2.95=.3559 That's about 36% less frequently.
Even in the roughly four percent of his AB in a second PA, Ottavino has a SO ratio (AB/SO) 30% worse than for the roughly 96% of his AB in a first PA.
Ruth often faced starting pitchers for the third or fourth time as the pitcher tired. Advantage Ruth. Ottavino faces batters only once about 92% of the time. Advantage Ottavino. Somewhere in between would be a fair meeting place. What might happen then is for you to decide. Below are older posts that might help.
Would Aroldis Chapman make Babe Ruth faint? Sunday, March 8, 2015
Many great relief pitchers or not that difficult? Saturday, March 7, 2015
Babe Ruth never batted against Satchel Paige. Neither did Jackie Robinson. Friday, May 29, 2009
1 comment:
Good point
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