Nolan Arenado hits 25% better at home in Denver than on the road.

Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado recently signed a huge seven year (ages 28-34) contract with his one and only team, the Colorado Rockies, rather than become a free agent after the 2019 season.

Arenado will be paid $35 million for ages 29-33. Some think that teams that passed on recent free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper might have been targeting Arenado a year later.

Is Nolan Arenado that good or are his batting numbers super inflated by his playing his home games in Denver, CO, the mile high city?

Road/Home OPS: where are Larry Walker and Todd Helton? Monday, January 7, 2019

Hall of Fame?
Walker: 60% of PA for Colorado. Road rank: 55 (.865). Home rank: 4 (1.068).
Helton: 100% of PA for Colorado. Road rank: 66 (.855). Home rank: 7 (1.048).
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2012 to 2018, Road (requiring PA >= 1,500), sorted by greatest OPS for this split; link with complete list

122 players met that criteria. Consider these ranks:

1. Mike Trout 1.000
8. Bryce Harper .887
42. Nolan Arenado .787
61. Manny Machado .761

Nolan Arenado:

I	Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+
	Home	438	431	1853	1677	314	536	124	19	108	376	6	6	148	258	.320	.374	.609	.984	1022	57	9	0	18	25	14	.322	121
	Away	438	433	1842	1671	210	439	98	6	78	240	7	7	137	313	.263	.318	.469	.787	783	43	9	5	20	19	14	.278	79

OPS: .886

home: .984

road: .787

Using road as base: (984-787)/787=0.25 (25%).

It would seem that Nolan Arenado is $35 million a year valuable to only one team: his current and only Colorado Rockies.

Nolan Arenado's value to any other team would be based on his likely having OPS .787.

Tops on the road 2012-2018:

Rk	I	Player	Split	From	To	G	OPS	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip
1		Mike Trout	Away	2012	2018	508	1.000	506	2312	1939	397	609	126	25	116	346	97	19	321	526	.314	.416	.584	1133	22	32	0	20	38	25	.374
2		Joey Votto	Away	2012	2018	480	.942	475	2120	1721	265	542	122	6	65	225	16	8	362	332	.315	.436	.506	871	45	21	0	16	46	5	.356
3		Paul Goldschmidt	Away	2012	2018	521	.927	512	2300	1978	316	605	126	7	104	358	58	14	283	485	.306	.393	.534	1057	48	14	0	20	46	23	.356
4		Nelson Cruz	Away	2012	2018	509	.896	500	2172	1945	296	550	99	4	134	356	11	6	187	479	.283	.351	.544	1059	51	26	0	14	25	22	.309
5		Miguel Cabrera	Away	2012	2018	452	.891	448	1986	1744	253	527	91	0	90	317	5	2	225	342	.302	.382	.509	888	71	7	0	10	42	11	.331
6		Freddie Freeman	Away	2012	2018	514	.889	507	2257	1969	317	581	139	9	88	305	24	6	250	451	.295	.380	.509	1002	47	27	0	11	35	16	.342
7		Bryce Harper	Away	2012	2018	455	.887	441	1963	1643	287	450	88	9	92	246	29	18	283	436	.274	.380	.506	832	34	12	5	20	23	12	.315
8		Edwin Encarnacion	Away	2012	2018	504	.880	500	2210	1906	322	499	78	1	140	366	18	4	266	393	.262	.356	.524	999	52	21	0	15	19	15	.259
9		Giancarlo Stanton	Away	2012	2018	439	.871	425	1911	1675	252	433	92	3	117	277	13	2	204	560	.259	.344	.527	882	29	20	0	11	32	13	.313
10		Josh Donaldson	Away	2012	2018	438	.870	434	1931	1655	286	454	85	8	91	275	18	4	239	381	.274	.370	.500	828	39	20	2	15	5	12	.303
11		Mookie Betts	Away	2014	2018	325	.859	320	1504	1339	231	384	77	12	62	181	59	15	141	197	.287	.358	.501	671	17	12	3	9	6	17	.296

Mookie Betts plays his home games in Fenway Park, where his OPS is .918.

2012 to 2018 (requiring PA >= 3,000), sorted by greatest OPS; 118 players qualified but not Mookie Betts; link with complete list; top ten:

Rk	Player	OPS	PA	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	Pos	Tm
1	Mike Trout	1.000	4538	2012	2018	20-26	1025	3747	773	1160	218	44	235	632	684	86	968	63	0	43	50	185	34	.310	.420	.579	*87/DH9	LAA
2	Joey Votto	.957	4175	2012	2018	28-34	958	3338	561	1033	219	10	150	496	769	95	711	39	0	29	86	38	12	.309	.441	.516	*3/HD	CIN
3	Miguel Cabrera	.940	3910	2012	2018	29-35	913	3415	536	1079	210	4	188	651	444	86	644	21	0	30	134	9	4	.316	.395	.545	*35/DH	DET
4	Paul Goldschmidt	.934	4531	2012	2018	24-30	1044	3819	681	1143	258	18	201	684	635	103	1006	32	0	36	95	120	32	.299	.400	.534	*3/HD	ARI
5	Giancarlo Stanton	.915	3828	2012	2018	22-28	894	3319	554	896	185	5	249	626	453	67	1062	33	0	22	72	31	7	.270	.361	.554	*9/D7H	MIA-NYY
6	Bryce Harper	.900	3957	2012	2018	19-25	927	3306	610	922	183	18	184	521	585	70	834	23	9	34	66	75	31	.279	.388	.512	*978/HD3	WSN
7	J.D. Martinez	.896	3541	2012	2018	24-30	869	3189	473	936	192	15	189	571	304	33	884	16	0	30	100	22	10	.294	.355	.541	*97D/H	HOU-DET-ARI-BOS
8	Edwin Encarnacion	.894	4381	2012	2018	29-35	1021	3732	621	994	181	5	263	764	559	40	739	44	0	43	112	32	6	.266	.365	.529	*D3/5H7	TOR-CLE
9	Freddie Freeman	.889	4352	2012	2018	22-28	1011	3761	615	1110	252	20	167	607	506	66	891	53	0	32	76	33	14	.295	.384	.506	*3/5HD	ATL
10	Nolan Arenado	.886	3695	2013	2018	22-27	876	3348	524	975	222	25	186	616	285	44	571	18	5	38	100	13	13	.291	.346	.539	*5/HD	COL
11	Josh Donaldson	.878	3783	2012	2018	26-32	869	3260	555	901	192	12	181	547	455	16	718	36	5	27	77	34	6	.276	.368	.509	*5/DH632	OAK-TOR-CLE

Nolan Arenado is number 10. Pretty good. But his road OPS .787 on this list would be:
43. Ben Zobrist .787 ages 31-37

Nolan Arenado doesn't seem like a $35 million a year player.