Sunday, March 10, 2019

Ten year contract for seasons 4-13: 191 batters considered 1903-2018.

Year four is when a player is now eligible for salary arbitration and some big bucks three years before becoming a free agent. For a really good player, his team might want to sign him to a long term contract.

Current conventional wisdom is that ten year contracts are too long. Free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper just signed for ten and thirteen years respectively. Both are entering age 26 season.

What if current rules existed since 1903? How many batters would have been productive for ten years? More than you might have thought. Data from baseball-reference.com

Note post written the next day:
baseball-reference.com baseball-reference.com defines first three seasons literally. Monday, March 11, 2019

191 batters made this list:

1903 to 2018, From 4th season to 13th season, (requiring OPS+>=125 and At least 5000 plate appearances), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+

RkPlayerOPS+WAR/posHRABPAFromToAgeGRH2B3BRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
1Babe Ruth21587.7349418153281917192622-31123610901471296861061106569329518579.352.486.7141.200*79/183HBOS-NYY
2Ted Williams19670.1275399151421942195423-35114598513742753510091134132341141399126.344.490.6371.128*7/H9BOS
3Ty Cobb19288.356527460801908191721-3014051079200032716491360537455130629113.379.448.535.984*89/H743DET
4Lou Gehrig18787.8357577469851926193523-321538138519964001301489109056227898389.346.452.6451.097*3/679NYY
5Mickey Mantle18680.0362471758601954196322-3113751120147719252943109489971119315611518.313.441.6061.047*8/H964NYY
6Rogers Hornsby18186.1203529161041918192722-311387105919483501201041647409321319262.368.440.5951.035*46/53H798STL-NYG
7Barry Bonds17584.3346511963911989199824-3314911096152931346105111662707784326199360102.299.429.5811.009*7/H8PIT-SFG
8Stan Musial17281.3268589768721944195423-331525119320314251211093918145331271471204851.344.435.5941.0289378/H1STL
9Shoeless Joe Jackson17061.553486655661911192023-32130285517373051637755102195912819881.357.424.519.944798/3HCLE-CHW
10Jimmie Foxx16971.0376538064171928193720-291464118317943048713209708418576853.333.436.6321.068*35/2H796PHA-BOS
11Tris Speaker16676.538529062191910191922-311438967182136713371870222468143340109.344.428.485.913*8/H391BOS-CLE
12Albert Pujols16572.1378553965102004201324-3314831058175638681117847244608590652158529.317.409.5941.003*3D/H54STL-LAA
13Willie Mays16593.4388588066941955196424-331542118418522979310897341246882215413824872.315.390.595.985*8/H635NYG-SFG
14Willie McCovey16449.3326449353601962197124-33137277512721932991676916982450542891517.283.391.557.947*37H/9SFG
15Frank Robinson16462.9320526661921959196823-3214661008160532143103675914178010805914515460.305.399.564.964*973/H85CIN-BAL
16Hank Aaron16381.6376600467091957196623-321536113719143165211656251476781416515316341.319.381.577.957*98/4H53MLN-ATL
17Miguel Cabrera16155.7330572866062006201523-32153398318723971011557791851043431552013216.327.408.572.980*35/DHFLA-DET

Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are the only batters on that list to have actually signed a big contracts but their long contracts were at these ages:
Pujols 32-41 (OPS+ 112 ages 32-38 for Angels 2012-2018)
Cabrera 33-42 (Tigers 2016-2025)

The group above contains the players you'd expect. Note that Barry Bonds made the list for years 1989-1998, i.e., probably before he started using performance enhancing drugs (PED).

Babe Ruth's years start with his last of three as a full time pitcher: 1917. Ruth played no other position through 1917. It ends in 1926, one year before he broke the season home run record for the fourth and final time by hitting 60 in 1927. He then also led the league the next four seasons: 54, 46, 49, 46. Ruth should have gotten a 15 year contract.

Yankee catchers are tied with others at number 140 with OPS+ 129:
Bill Dickey 1931-1940; WAR 40.8
Yogi Berra 1949-1958; WAR 45.7

Among the 191, tops in WAR:

RkPlayerOPS+WAR/pos
HRABPAFromToAgeGRH2B3BRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
1Willie Mays16593.4388588066941955196424-331542118418522979310897341246882215413824872.315.390.595.985*8/H635NYG-SFG
2Ty Cobb19288.356527460801908191721-3014051079200032716491360537455130629113.379.448.535.984*89/H743DET
3Lou Gehrig18787.8357577469851926193523-321538138519964001301489109056227898389.346.452.6451.097*3/679NYY
4Babe Ruth21587.7349418153281917192622-31123610901471296861061106569329518579.352.486.7141.200*79/183HBOS-NYY
5Rogers Hornsby18186.1203529161041918192722-311387105919483501201041647409321319262.368.440.5951.035*46/53H798STL-NYG
6Barry Bonds17584.3346511963911989199824-3314911096152931346105111662707784326199360102.299.429.5811.009*7/H8PIT-SFG
7Hank Aaron16381.6376600467091957196623-321536113719143165211656251476781416515316341.319.381.577.957*98/4H53MLN-ATL
8Stan Musial17281.3268589768721944195423-331525119320314251211093918145331271471204851.344.435.5941.0289378/H1STL
9Mickey Mantle18680.0362471758601954196322-3113751120147719252943109489971119315611518.313.441.6061.047*8/H964NYY
10Eddie Collins15578.120520863861909191822-3114541008171520111765782330451273519103.329.426.424.850*4/6HPHA-CHW
11Tris Speaker16676.538529062191910191922-311438967182136713371870222468143340109.344.428.485.913*8/H391BOS-CLE
12Mike Schmidt15576.5370522263551975198425-34148210081403253441009100512212544712699213671.269.387.547.934*5/H634PHI
13Alex Rodriguez14676.2423597068891997200621-3015351198180830423120375258123810285714321954.303.387.574.961*65/DHSEA-TEX-NYY
14Albert Pujols16572.1378553965102004201324-3314831058175638681117847244608590652158529.317.409.5941.003*3D/H54STL-LAA
15Jimmie Foxx16971.0376538064171928193720-291464118317943048713209708418576853.333.436.6321.068*35/2H796PHA-BOS
16Mel Ott16170.4323549065591929193820-2914981148173030154120696946235604454.315.421.566.987*958/H4NYG
17Ted Williams19670.1275399151421942195423-35114598513742753510091134132341141399126.344.490.6371.128*7/H9BOS
18Rickey Henderson14170.1168511861631982199123-3213871146147825837565976297083562887805170.289.404.452.856*78/DHNYY-OAK

It does not include Ruth's pitching WAR in 1917, 1918, 1919. Number of players in these WAR ranges:
90s: 1
80s: 8
70s: 9
60s: 10
50s: 38
40s: 53
30s: 47
20s: 26
Jeff Burroughs 117; OPS+ 125
Matt Kemp 16.8; OPS+ 125

Finally, most home runs and remember Ruth was still pitching and Bonds was still clean:

RkPlayerOPS+WAR/posHR
ABPAFromToAgeGRH2B3BRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
1Alex Rodriguez14676.2423597068891997200621-3015351198180830423120375258123810285714321954.303.387.574.961*65/DHSEA-TEX-NYY
2Sammy Sosa13949.0421543961041992200123-321398955156023430112357711213953454911817978.287.356.573.929*98/HCHC
3Ken Griffey Jr.15062.6400511659311992200122-3113559921509269271094707152927552519812540.295.383.593.976*8/DH379SEA-CIN
4Willie Mays16593.4388588066941955196424-331542118418522979310897341246882215413824872.315.390.595.985*8/H635NYG-SFG
5Manny Ramirez16051.3385529962631996200524-331437103816863621412428351281157720571572422.318.414.6101.02497D/HCLE-BOS
6Albert Pujols16572.1378553965102004201324-3314831058175638681117847244608590652158529.317.409.5941.003*3D/H54STL-LAA
7Hank Aaron16381.6376600467091957196623-321536113719143165211656251476781416515316341.319.381.577.957*98/4H53MLN-ATL
8Jimmie Foxx16971.0376538064171928193720-291464118317943048713209708418576853.333.436.6321.068*35/2H796PHA-BOS
9Jim Thome15651.1371484959941994200323-3214229851396271201015106493147339141811315.288.417.582.999*35D/HCLE-PHI
10Mike Schmidt15576.5370522263551975198425-34148210081403253441009100512212544712699213671.269.387.547.934*5/H634PHI
11Jeff Bagwell15661.0366545066731994200326-35149511601643358161155106612411209106615816660.301.420.574.994*3/HD9HOU
12Juan Gonzalez13833.7365512956161992200122-311312862154830220116136764972490711441912.302.350.582.9329D78/HTEX-DET-CLE
13Mickey Mantle18680.0362471758601954196322-3113751120147719252943109489971119315611518.313.441.6061.047*8/H964NYY
14Lou Gehrig18787.8357577469851926193523-321538138519964001301489109056227898389.346.452.6451.097*3/679NYY
15Carlos Delgado14640.9357530763741996200524-3314859461527379141138867144129113606410386.288.397.566.963*3D/HTOR-FLA
16Babe Ruth21587.7349418153281917192622-31123610901471296861061106569329518579.352.486.7141.200*79/183HBOS-NYY
17Barry Bonds17584.3346511963911989199824-3314911096152931346105111662707784326199360102.299.429.5811.009*7/H8PIT-SFG

Mantle, Mays, Aaron: they look like they would have been very good candidates for ten year contracts, Mantle pretty much exactly. The Mick had only one more star season: 1964. Mays and Aaron several more. If you're timid about signing current young arbitration eligible and/or free agents for ten years, consider whether you would have missed the boat on Mantle, Mays, Aaron and others.

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