Current conventional wisdom is that ten year contracts are too long. Free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper just signed for ten and thirteen years respectively. Both are entering age 26 season.
What if current rules existed since 1903? How many batters would have been productive for ten years? More than you might have thought. Data from baseball-reference.com
Note post written the next day:
baseball-reference.com baseball-reference.com defines first three seasons literally. Monday, March 11, 2019
191 batters made this list:
1903 to 2018, From 4th season to 13th season, (requiring OPS+>=125 and At least 5000 plate appearances), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+
Rk | Player | WAR/pos | HR | AB | PA | From | To | Age | G | R | H | 2B | 3B | RBI | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | SH | SF | GDP | SB | CS | Pos | Tm | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Babe Ruth | 215 | 87.7 | 349 | 4181 | 5328 | 1917 | 1926 | 22-31 | 1236 | 1090 | 1471 | 296 | 86 | 1061 | 1065 | 693 | 29 | 51 | 85 | 79 | .352 | .486 | .714 | 1.200 | *79/183H | BOS-NYY | |||
2 | Ted Williams | 196 | 70.1 | 275 | 3991 | 5142 | 1942 | 1954 | 23-35 | 1145 | 985 | 1374 | 275 | 35 | 1009 | 1134 | 132 | 341 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 99 | 12 | 6 | .344 | .490 | .637 | 1.128 | *7/H9 | BOS |
3 | Ty Cobb | 192 | 88.3 | 56 | 5274 | 6080 | 1908 | 1917 | 21-30 | 1405 | 1079 | 2000 | 327 | 164 | 913 | 605 | 374 | 55 | 130 | 629 | 113 | .379 | .448 | .535 | .984 | *89/H743 | DET | |||
4 | Lou Gehrig | 187 | 87.8 | 357 | 5774 | 6985 | 1926 | 1935 | 23-32 | 1538 | 1385 | 1996 | 400 | 130 | 1489 | 1090 | 562 | 27 | 89 | 83 | 89 | .346 | .452 | .645 | 1.097 | *3/679 | NYY | |||
5 | Mickey Mantle | 186 | 80.0 | 362 | 4717 | 5860 | 1954 | 1963 | 22-31 | 1375 | 1120 | 1477 | 192 | 52 | 943 | 1094 | 89 | 971 | 11 | 9 | 31 | 56 | 115 | 18 | .313 | .441 | .606 | 1.047 | *8/H964 | NYY |
6 | Rogers Hornsby | 181 | 86.1 | 203 | 5291 | 6104 | 1918 | 1927 | 22-31 | 1387 | 1059 | 1948 | 350 | 120 | 1041 | 647 | 409 | 32 | 131 | 92 | 62 | .368 | .440 | .595 | 1.035 | *46/53H798 | STL-NYG | |||
7 | Barry Bonds | 175 | 84.3 | 346 | 5119 | 6391 | 1989 | 1998 | 24-33 | 1491 | 1096 | 1529 | 313 | 46 | 1051 | 1166 | 270 | 778 | 43 | 2 | 61 | 99 | 360 | 102 | .299 | .429 | .581 | 1.009 | *7/H8 | PIT-SFG |
8 | Stan Musial | 172 | 81.3 | 268 | 5897 | 6872 | 1944 | 1954 | 23-33 | 1525 | 1193 | 2031 | 425 | 121 | 1093 | 918 | 145 | 331 | 27 | 14 | 7 | 120 | 48 | 51 | .344 | .435 | .594 | 1.028 | 9378/H1 | STL |
9 | Shoeless Joe Jackson | 170 | 61.5 | 53 | 4866 | 5566 | 1911 | 1920 | 23-32 | 1302 | 855 | 1737 | 305 | 163 | 775 | 510 | 219 | 59 | 128 | 198 | 81 | .357 | .424 | .519 | .944 | 798/3H | CLE-CHW | |||
10 | Jimmie Foxx | 169 | 71.0 | 376 | 5380 | 6417 | 1928 | 1937 | 20-29 | 1464 | 1183 | 1794 | 304 | 87 | 1320 | 970 | 841 | 8 | 57 | 68 | 53 | .333 | .436 | .632 | 1.068 | *35/2H796 | PHA-BOS | |||
11 | Tris Speaker | 166 | 76.5 | 38 | 5290 | 6219 | 1910 | 1919 | 22-31 | 1438 | 967 | 1821 | 367 | 133 | 718 | 702 | 224 | 68 | 143 | 340 | 109 | .344 | .428 | .485 | .913 | *8/H391 | BOS-CLE | |||
12 | Albert Pujols | 165 | 72.1 | 378 | 5539 | 6510 | 2004 | 2013 | 24-33 | 1483 | 1058 | 1756 | 386 | 8 | 1117 | 847 | 244 | 608 | 59 | 0 | 65 | 215 | 85 | 29 | .317 | .409 | .594 | 1.003 | *3D/H54 | STL-LAA |
13 | Willie Mays | 165 | 93.4 | 388 | 5880 | 6694 | 1955 | 1964 | 24-33 | 1542 | 1184 | 1852 | 297 | 93 | 1089 | 734 | 124 | 688 | 22 | 1 | 54 | 138 | 248 | 72 | .315 | .390 | .595 | .985 | *8/H635 | NYG-SFG |
14 | Willie McCovey | 164 | 49.3 | 326 | 4493 | 5360 | 1962 | 1971 | 24-33 | 1372 | 775 | 1272 | 193 | 29 | 916 | 769 | 169 | 824 | 50 | 5 | 42 | 89 | 15 | 17 | .283 | .391 | .557 | .947 | *37H/9 | SFG |
15 | Frank Robinson | 164 | 62.9 | 320 | 5266 | 6192 | 1959 | 1968 | 23-32 | 1466 | 1008 | 1605 | 321 | 43 | 1036 | 759 | 141 | 780 | 108 | 0 | 59 | 145 | 154 | 60 | .305 | .399 | .564 | .964 | *973/H85 | CIN-BAL |
16 | Hank Aaron | 163 | 81.6 | 376 | 6004 | 6709 | 1957 | 1966 | 23-32 | 1536 | 1137 | 1914 | 316 | 52 | 1165 | 625 | 147 | 678 | 14 | 1 | 65 | 153 | 163 | 41 | .319 | .381 | .577 | .957 | *98/4H53 | MLN-ATL |
17 | Miguel Cabrera | 161 | 55.7 | 330 | 5728 | 6606 | 2006 | 2015 | 23-32 | 1533 | 983 | 1872 | 397 | 10 | 1155 | 779 | 185 | 1043 | 43 | 1 | 55 | 201 | 32 | 16 | .327 | .408 | .572 | .980 | *35/DH | FLA-DET |
Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are the only batters on that list to have actually signed a big contracts but their long contracts were at these ages:
Pujols 32-41 (OPS+ 112 ages 32-38 for Angels 2012-2018)
Cabrera 33-42 (Tigers 2016-2025)
The group above contains the players you'd expect. Note that Barry Bonds made the list for years 1989-1998, i.e., probably before he started using performance enhancing drugs (PED).
Babe Ruth's years start with his last of three as a full time pitcher: 1917. Ruth played no other position through 1917. It ends in 1926, one year before he broke the season home run record for the fourth and final time by hitting 60 in 1927. He then also led the league the next four seasons: 54, 46, 49, 46. Ruth should have gotten a 15 year contract.
Yankee catchers are tied with others at number 140 with OPS+ 129:
Bill Dickey 1931-1940; WAR 40.8
Yogi Berra 1949-1958; WAR 45.7
Among the 191, tops in WAR:
Rk | Player | WAR/pos ▼ | HR | AB | PA | From | To | Age | G | R | H | 2B | 3B | RBI | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | SH | SF | GDP | SB | CS | Pos | Tm | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Willie Mays | 165 | 93.4 | 388 | 5880 | 6694 | 1955 | 1964 | 24-33 | 1542 | 1184 | 1852 | 297 | 93 | 1089 | 734 | 124 | 688 | 22 | 1 | 54 | 138 | 248 | 72 | .315 | .390 | .595 | .985 | *8/H635 | NYG-SFG |
2 | Ty Cobb | 192 | 88.3 | 56 | 5274 | 6080 | 1908 | 1917 | 21-30 | 1405 | 1079 | 2000 | 327 | 164 | 913 | 605 | 374 | 55 | 130 | 629 | 113 | .379 | .448 | .535 | .984 | *89/H743 | DET | |||
3 | Lou Gehrig | 187 | 87.8 | 357 | 5774 | 6985 | 1926 | 1935 | 23-32 | 1538 | 1385 | 1996 | 400 | 130 | 1489 | 1090 | 562 | 27 | 89 | 83 | 89 | .346 | .452 | .645 | 1.097 | *3/679 | NYY | |||
4 | Babe Ruth | 215 | 87.7 | 349 | 4181 | 5328 | 1917 | 1926 | 22-31 | 1236 | 1090 | 1471 | 296 | 86 | 1061 | 1065 | 693 | 29 | 51 | 85 | 79 | .352 | .486 | .714 | 1.200 | *79/183H | BOS-NYY | |||
5 | Rogers Hornsby | 181 | 86.1 | 203 | 5291 | 6104 | 1918 | 1927 | 22-31 | 1387 | 1059 | 1948 | 350 | 120 | 1041 | 647 | 409 | 32 | 131 | 92 | 62 | .368 | .440 | .595 | 1.035 | *46/53H798 | STL-NYG | |||
6 | Barry Bonds | 175 | 84.3 | 346 | 5119 | 6391 | 1989 | 1998 | 24-33 | 1491 | 1096 | 1529 | 313 | 46 | 1051 | 1166 | 270 | 778 | 43 | 2 | 61 | 99 | 360 | 102 | .299 | .429 | .581 | 1.009 | *7/H8 | PIT-SFG |
7 | Hank Aaron | 163 | 81.6 | 376 | 6004 | 6709 | 1957 | 1966 | 23-32 | 1536 | 1137 | 1914 | 316 | 52 | 1165 | 625 | 147 | 678 | 14 | 1 | 65 | 153 | 163 | 41 | .319 | .381 | .577 | .957 | *98/4H53 | MLN-ATL |
8 | Stan Musial | 172 | 81.3 | 268 | 5897 | 6872 | 1944 | 1954 | 23-33 | 1525 | 1193 | 2031 | 425 | 121 | 1093 | 918 | 145 | 331 | 27 | 14 | 7 | 120 | 48 | 51 | .344 | .435 | .594 | 1.028 | 9378/H1 | STL |
9 | Mickey Mantle | 186 | 80.0 | 362 | 4717 | 5860 | 1954 | 1963 | 22-31 | 1375 | 1120 | 1477 | 192 | 52 | 943 | 1094 | 89 | 971 | 11 | 9 | 31 | 56 | 115 | 18 | .313 | .441 | .606 | 1.047 | *8/H964 | NYY |
10 | Eddie Collins | 155 | 78.1 | 20 | 5208 | 6386 | 1909 | 1918 | 22-31 | 1454 | 1008 | 1715 | 201 | 117 | 657 | 823 | 304 | 51 | 273 | 519 | 103 | .329 | .426 | .424 | .850 | *4/6H | PHA-CHW | |||
11 | Tris Speaker | 166 | 76.5 | 38 | 5290 | 6219 | 1910 | 1919 | 22-31 | 1438 | 967 | 1821 | 367 | 133 | 718 | 702 | 224 | 68 | 143 | 340 | 109 | .344 | .428 | .485 | .913 | *8/H391 | BOS-CLE | |||
12 | Mike Schmidt | 155 | 76.5 | 370 | 5222 | 6355 | 1975 | 1984 | 25-34 | 1482 | 1008 | 1403 | 253 | 44 | 1009 | 1005 | 122 | 1254 | 47 | 12 | 69 | 92 | 136 | 71 | .269 | .387 | .547 | .934 | *5/H634 | PHI |
13 | Alex Rodriguez | 146 | 76.2 | 423 | 5970 | 6889 | 1997 | 2006 | 21-30 | 1535 | 1198 | 1808 | 304 | 23 | 1203 | 752 | 58 | 1238 | 102 | 8 | 57 | 143 | 219 | 54 | .303 | .387 | .574 | .961 | *65/DH | SEA-TEX-NYY |
14 | Albert Pujols | 165 | 72.1 | 378 | 5539 | 6510 | 2004 | 2013 | 24-33 | 1483 | 1058 | 1756 | 386 | 8 | 1117 | 847 | 244 | 608 | 59 | 0 | 65 | 215 | 85 | 29 | .317 | .409 | .594 | 1.003 | *3D/H54 | STL-LAA |
15 | Jimmie Foxx | 169 | 71.0 | 376 | 5380 | 6417 | 1928 | 1937 | 20-29 | 1464 | 1183 | 1794 | 304 | 87 | 1320 | 970 | 841 | 8 | 57 | 68 | 53 | .333 | .436 | .632 | 1.068 | *35/2H796 | PHA-BOS | |||
16 | Mel Ott | 161 | 70.4 | 323 | 5490 | 6559 | 1929 | 1938 | 20-29 | 1498 | 1148 | 1730 | 301 | 54 | 1206 | 969 | 462 | 35 | 60 | 44 | 54 | .315 | .421 | .566 | .987 | *958/H4 | NYG | |||
17 | Ted Williams | 196 | 70.1 | 275 | 3991 | 5142 | 1942 | 1954 | 23-35 | 1145 | 985 | 1374 | 275 | 35 | 1009 | 1134 | 132 | 341 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 99 | 12 | 6 | .344 | .490 | .637 | 1.128 | *7/H9 | BOS |
18 | Rickey Henderson | 141 | 70.1 | 168 | 5118 | 6163 | 1982 | 1991 | 23-32 | 1387 | 1146 | 1478 | 258 | 37 | 565 | 976 | 29 | 708 | 35 | 6 | 28 | 87 | 805 | 170 | .289 | .404 | .452 | .856 | *78/DH | NYY-OAK |
It does not include Ruth's pitching WAR in 1917, 1918, 1919. Number of players in these WAR ranges:
90s: 1
80s: 8
70s: 9
60s: 10
50s: 38
40s: 53
30s: 47
20s: 26
Jeff Burroughs 117; OPS+ 125
Matt Kemp 16.8; OPS+ 125
Finally, most home runs and remember Ruth was still pitching and Bonds was still clean:
Rk | Player | WAR/pos | HR ▼ | AB | PA | From | To | Age | G | R | H | 2B | 3B | RBI | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | SH | SF | GDP | SB | CS | Pos | Tm | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Alex Rodriguez | 146 | 76.2 | 423 | 5970 | 6889 | 1997 | 2006 | 21-30 | 1535 | 1198 | 1808 | 304 | 23 | 1203 | 752 | 58 | 1238 | 102 | 8 | 57 | 143 | 219 | 54 | .303 | .387 | .574 | .961 | *65/DH | SEA-TEX-NYY |
2 | Sammy Sosa | 139 | 49.0 | 421 | 5439 | 6104 | 1992 | 2001 | 23-32 | 1398 | 955 | 1560 | 234 | 30 | 1123 | 577 | 112 | 1395 | 34 | 5 | 49 | 118 | 179 | 78 | .287 | .356 | .573 | .929 | *98/H | CHC |
3 | Ken Griffey Jr. | 150 | 62.6 | 400 | 5116 | 5931 | 1992 | 2001 | 22-31 | 1355 | 992 | 1509 | 269 | 27 | 1094 | 707 | 152 | 927 | 55 | 2 | 51 | 98 | 125 | 40 | .295 | .383 | .593 | .976 | *8/DH379 | SEA-CIN |
4 | Willie Mays | 165 | 93.4 | 388 | 5880 | 6694 | 1955 | 1964 | 24-33 | 1542 | 1184 | 1852 | 297 | 93 | 1089 | 734 | 124 | 688 | 22 | 1 | 54 | 138 | 248 | 72 | .315 | .390 | .595 | .985 | *8/H635 | NYG-SFG |
5 | Manny Ramirez | 160 | 51.3 | 385 | 5299 | 6263 | 1996 | 2005 | 24-33 | 1437 | 1038 | 1686 | 362 | 14 | 1242 | 835 | 128 | 1157 | 72 | 0 | 57 | 157 | 24 | 22 | .318 | .414 | .610 | 1.024 | 97D/H | CLE-BOS |
6 | Albert Pujols | 165 | 72.1 | 378 | 5539 | 6510 | 2004 | 2013 | 24-33 | 1483 | 1058 | 1756 | 386 | 8 | 1117 | 847 | 244 | 608 | 59 | 0 | 65 | 215 | 85 | 29 | .317 | .409 | .594 | 1.003 | *3D/H54 | STL-LAA |
7 | Hank Aaron | 163 | 81.6 | 376 | 6004 | 6709 | 1957 | 1966 | 23-32 | 1536 | 1137 | 1914 | 316 | 52 | 1165 | 625 | 147 | 678 | 14 | 1 | 65 | 153 | 163 | 41 | .319 | .381 | .577 | .957 | *98/4H53 | MLN-ATL |
8 | Jimmie Foxx | 169 | 71.0 | 376 | 5380 | 6417 | 1928 | 1937 | 20-29 | 1464 | 1183 | 1794 | 304 | 87 | 1320 | 970 | 841 | 8 | 57 | 68 | 53 | .333 | .436 | .632 | 1.068 | *35/2H796 | PHA-BOS | |||
9 | Jim Thome | 156 | 51.1 | 371 | 4849 | 5994 | 1994 | 2003 | 23-32 | 1422 | 985 | 1396 | 271 | 20 | 1015 | 1064 | 93 | 1473 | 39 | 1 | 41 | 81 | 13 | 15 | .288 | .417 | .582 | .999 | *35D/H | CLE-PHI |
10 | Mike Schmidt | 155 | 76.5 | 370 | 5222 | 6355 | 1975 | 1984 | 25-34 | 1482 | 1008 | 1403 | 253 | 44 | 1009 | 1005 | 122 | 1254 | 47 | 12 | 69 | 92 | 136 | 71 | .269 | .387 | .547 | .934 | *5/H634 | PHI |
11 | Jeff Bagwell | 156 | 61.0 | 366 | 5450 | 6673 | 1994 | 2003 | 26-35 | 1495 | 1160 | 1643 | 358 | 16 | 1155 | 1066 | 124 | 1120 | 91 | 0 | 66 | 158 | 166 | 60 | .301 | .420 | .574 | .994 | *3/HD9 | HOU |
12 | Juan Gonzalez | 138 | 33.7 | 365 | 5129 | 5616 | 1992 | 2001 | 22-31 | 1312 | 862 | 1548 | 302 | 20 | 1161 | 367 | 64 | 972 | 49 | 0 | 71 | 144 | 19 | 12 | .302 | .350 | .582 | .932 | 9D78/H | TEX-DET-CLE |
13 | Mickey Mantle | 186 | 80.0 | 362 | 4717 | 5860 | 1954 | 1963 | 22-31 | 1375 | 1120 | 1477 | 192 | 52 | 943 | 1094 | 89 | 971 | 11 | 9 | 31 | 56 | 115 | 18 | .313 | .441 | .606 | 1.047 | *8/H964 | NYY |
14 | Lou Gehrig | 187 | 87.8 | 357 | 5774 | 6985 | 1926 | 1935 | 23-32 | 1538 | 1385 | 1996 | 400 | 130 | 1489 | 1090 | 562 | 27 | 89 | 83 | 89 | .346 | .452 | .645 | 1.097 | *3/679 | NYY | |||
15 | Carlos Delgado | 146 | 40.9 | 357 | 5307 | 6374 | 1996 | 2005 | 24-33 | 1485 | 946 | 1527 | 379 | 14 | 1138 | 867 | 144 | 1291 | 136 | 0 | 64 | 103 | 8 | 6 | .288 | .397 | .566 | .963 | *3D/H | TOR-FLA |
16 | Babe Ruth | 215 | 87.7 | 349 | 4181 | 5328 | 1917 | 1926 | 22-31 | 1236 | 1090 | 1471 | 296 | 86 | 1061 | 1065 | 693 | 29 | 51 | 85 | 79 | .352 | .486 | .714 | 1.200 | *79/183H | BOS-NYY | |||
17 | Barry Bonds | 175 | 84.3 | 346 | 5119 | 6391 | 1989 | 1998 | 24-33 | 1491 | 1096 | 1529 | 313 | 46 | 1051 | 1166 | 270 | 778 | 43 | 2 | 61 | 99 | 360 | 102 | .299 | .429 | .581 | 1.009 | *7/H8 | PIT-SFG |
Mantle, Mays, Aaron: they look like they would have been very good candidates for ten year contracts, Mantle pretty much exactly. The Mick had only one more star season: 1964. Mays and Aaron several more. If you're timid about signing current young arbitration eligible and/or free agents for ten years, consider whether you would have missed the boat on Mantle, Mays, Aaron and others.
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