Monday, July 19, 2021

Ohtani 34 home runs. Mantle and Maris 35 same day. Can Ohtani hit 60?

Pre steroid season home run record: 61 in 1961 by Roger Maris.

Mantle & Maris still only teammates to hit 50 HR. Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Maris, of course, broke Babe Ruth's record of 60. Mantle had 54...

Mantle and Maris are still the only teammates to hit 50 HR. Not only are they the only pair to hit 50 in the same season but they are the only teammates to do it in any seasons.

The M&M boys broke the two teammate record of Ruth and Lou Gehrig (60+47 = 107) in 1927: (61+54 = 115).

In a sense, Ruth and Gehrig come the closest to being teammates hitting 50 in the same season.
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July 18, 2021 Shohei Ohtani of the Angels hit home run number 34 in Angels team game 92 (46-46). Ohtani homered in the bottom of the 9th with one on and two out but his team lost 7-4 to Seattle.

Note: The Yankees had played a 7 inning tie April 22, 1961 in Baltimore.

July 18, 1961 Mickey Mantle of the New York Yankees hit home runs 34 and 35 in Yankee team game 89 (58-30-1). In Washington Mantle homered in the top of the 1st with one on and two outs and in the 8th to break a 3-3 tie. The Yankees won 5-3. Mantle tied teammate Roger Maris who had hit home run 35 July 15, 1961 in Chicago; Yanks won 9-8 in 10 innings.

The Yankees played team game 92 (59-32-1) in Boston July 21, 1961. The Yankees scored 5 in the top of the 9th to win 11-8. With two out in the first, the M&M boys went back-to-back off Bill Monbouquette. Maris 36, Mantle 37.

Those thrilling days of yesteryear!

Shohei Ohtani has hit 34 home runs in 358 plate appearances (PA) and 314 at bats (AB). Here are the home run rates (AB/HR; lower is better):

ABHRAB/HROPS+
Ohtani314349.24176
Mantle514549.52206
Maris590619.67167

Ohtani is also a starting pitcher. 13 starts, 67 innings, ERA+ 133. Otherwise, Ohtani is a designated hitter (DH) almost exclusively.

So, can Ohtani get enough AB and homer at a good enough rate to reach at least 60 home runs for the 2021 season, 60 years after Roger Maris became the second major league player to hit at least 60 home runs?

If Ohtani maintains his current rate of homering every 9.24 AB, he would reach 60 home runs in 554 AB. That's another 240 AB. Divide that by 4 AB and Ohtani would need another 80 games. That would mean 172 team games, which is ten more than the 162 game schedule. The Angels have 70 more regular season games to play. About the most AB Ohtani could reasonably be expected to get would be about 70 * 4 = 280.

So, Ohtani would have to improve his already excellent home run rate. He would have to hit 36 more home runs in those 280 AB for a rate of one home run every 7.78 AB. That seems very unlikely, even if Ohtani stops pitching.

But it's a great story, one which baseball fans should celebrate.

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