Friday, September 24, 2021

Most season home runs by Red Sox younger than 25: features Rafael Devers. But Devers relative home run rate is worst.

It's been mentioned more than once. I think it's most home runs in a season by a Red Sox batter younger than 25. It's apparently intended to feature current third baseman Rafael Devers.

Photo of Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

Position: Third Baseman

Bats: Left  •  Throws: Right

6-0240lb (183cm, 108kg)

Team: Boston Red Sox (majors)

Born: October 241996 (Age: 24-335d) in Sanchez, Dominican Republic do






Devers hit season home run number 35 tonight in a losing game against the Yankees. Devers is the fourth Red Sox batter to hit at least 35 home runs when he was younger than 25.

The following table shows the relative home run rate, which is home runs per plate appearance (PA) and per at bat (AB), take your pick. The difference is very small. Lower is better. That rate or ratio is compared to the American League (AL). The two seasons for Ted Williams are three decades before the introduction of the designated hitter (DH), so the pitchers batted, which makes the AL home rate worse and makes the percent difference for Williams a little better than it would with a DH. On the other hand, sacrifice flies (SF) were not separated from AB in the 1940s.

The percent difference (%Dif) is the difference divided by the AL rate. That's the bottom line number. Devers is dead last, the worst by far. Obviously, that's because Devers is hitting his home runs in a season when a lot of home runs are being hit. A lot.

This link has the data, which is also below. It's derived from an ad hoc query at stathead.com via baseball-reference.com.

ALALALALALPAPAABAB
PlayerYearAgeHRPAABPA/HRAB/HRHRPAABPA/HRAB/HRDif%DifDif%DifPlayerYear
Jim Rice1977243971064418.20516.5132,01386,64277,27543.04138.38824.83657.70%21.87556.98%Jim Rice1977
Ted Williams1941223760645616.37812.32473448,68243,12566.32458.75349.94675.31%46.42979.02%Ted Williams1941
Ted Williams1942233667152218.63914.50053347,13541,95588.43378.71569.79578.92%64.21581.58%Ted Williams1942
Nomar Garciaparra1998243565260418.62917.2572,49988,17578,41635.28431.37916.65647.20%14.12245.00%Nomar Garciaparra1998
Rafael Devers2021243562855717.94315.9142,89885,72776,73129.58126.47711.63939.34%10.56339.89%Rafael Devers2021
max78.92%81.58%
min39.34%39.89%


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