Sunday, January 30, 2022

Stop staring at Batting Average and Home Runs. Look at their percentage above the league.

We baseball fans are simple. That's a euphemism for stupid. We stare at numbers and marvel at them even when they are completely lacking context. The two traditional stats stared at the most are:

Batting Average: Hits divided by At Bats (AB).

Home Runs: uh, that's it. Just a total. Not even a simple average or rate like AB divided by HR to get the common sense stat of the average number of AB to hit a homer. Some may prefer using Plate Appearances (PA), which is mostly AB + Bases on Balls (BB) also known as Walks. The idea is the same.

I have written a series of recent posts, mostly with the preface: Batting Average (BA). They advocate using the BA percent above the league BA for that season. I have also advocated the same for the average AB/HR, which I sometimes call HRrate. In the most recent I explicitly tied the two together:

Batting Average (BA): champs home runs and home run rates percent above league. Saturday, January 29, 2022

Mickey Mantle is the leader with 52 Home Runs, homering every 10.25 AB...

Let's reverse the sort order so that we're not simply staring at Home Runs without the context of Home Run hitting in the league that season...

The leader in Home Runs, Mickey Mantle, is number 8 in HRrate%aboveL.

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Maybe you don't think that you stare. Are you impressed by a .400 BA? 60 HR?

Comparing BA leaders Bill Terry (.401 in 1930) and Carl Yastrzemski (.301 in 1968). Monday, December 27, 2021

If you read that, you probably still react with: but Bill Terry hit .400.

Batting Average (BA): .400 1903-2021 percent above league. Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Seven players had BA at least .400 twelve times from 1903 through 2021, actually between 1911 and 1941.

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What now?

Batting Average (BA): Ted Williams percent above league .406 v. .388 considering SF. Sunday, January 23, 2022

Ted Williams had a slightly higher percent above the league BA with his .388 in 1957 than with his .406 in 1941.

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1. Ted Williams, Home Run King? Yes, using AB/HR. Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Say what?

Is the league's best hitter the one with the most hits? No, we still persist in calling the league leader in batting average (BA) the batting champion, the one who led the league in hitting.

Quaint, right. But even BA is significantly better than mindlessly considering the Home Run King to be the one with the most Home Runs.

Perhaps most pathetic is that this must even be pointed out.

A series of recent posts grouped under the label Home Run rates addresses this. The methodology, such as it is, could be improved. This new series will address that but the point of all this is that Home Run hitting by individuals should be judged by more than the total.

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Batting Average (BA) champs 1903-2021 percent above league ranked for NL and for AL.
Wednesday, January 5, 2022

All 119 seasons with rank numbers 1-119 for the National League (NL) and rank numbers 1-119 for the American League (AL)...

The objective here is to not simply stare at the player's BA but to put it in some context.

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Do you take the position that Roger Maris is the real holder of the season home run record, not those steroid guys like Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire or Sammy Sosa? Maris broke the 1927 record of 60 home runs by Babe Ruth by hitting 61 in 1961 ... in the first season expanded from 154 to 162 games. How do you compare Maris to Ruth? Heck, in the American League in 1961, did Maris even have the best HR rate among the home run leaders? And how would his percentage above the league in 1961 compare to Ruth's in 1927? Hint: Ruth out homered every other AL team.

qryBAleader%AboveLeag_HRrateAboveLeag
Year L First Last BA%aboveL HRrate%aboveL BAp HRrateP HR AB
1927 AL Babe Ruth 24.54% 90.62% .3555556 9 60 540
1961 AL Roger Maris 5.41% 72.98% .2694915 9.672131 61 590

Check out the next few posts, which should explore some pretty interesting stuff.

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