Bonds and Aaron: Home Run Rate (AB/HR) percentages above the league. Comparison by age.

The posts referenced below are relevant. You might want to read them first. This post will refine the older comparison with the new concept and not just merely stare at home run totals. In the new table that follows, age is simply and more accurately season year minus birth year. Bonds and Aaron will be compared year by year linked by age.

Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron: Home Runs. Monday, December 3, 2012

Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron are one, two in career home runs, yet neither was considered a big time home run hitter during most of his career.   Data from baseball-reference.com

Bonds:
Born: July 24, 1964
Position: Leftfielder
Bats: Left, Throws: Left
Height: 6' 1", Weight: 185 lb.
AB: 9,847
HR: 762

Aaron:
Born: February 5, 1934
Positions: Rightfielder and First Baseman
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6' 0", Weight: 180 lb.
AB: 12,367
HR: 755

Season high:
Bonds 2001 73, 476 AB; final team game 10/7/2001; age 37.2
Aaron 1971 47, 495 AB; final team game 9/28/1971; age 37.7

Aaron was 160 days older than Bonds...

Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Those 1973 Atlanta Braves: was there something in the water?

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HR% is the percentage that a player's Home Run rate (AB/HR; lower is better) is above the league Home Run rate that season.

First an overview table, aligning their seasons by age for ages 22 through 40:

Maximum. Minimum.

Aaron	Aaron	Aaron	Aaron	Aaron	Aaron	Aaron	Aaron	Bonds	Bonds	Bonds	Bonds	Bonds	Bonds	Bonds	Bonds
Age	HR%	yearID	team	AB	HR	HRrateP	HRrateL	Age	HR%	yearID	team	AB	HR	HRrateP	HRrateL
20	4.58%	1954	MLN	468	13	36.000	37.72621
21	32.59%	1955	MLN	602	27	22.296	33.07442
22	31.77%	1956	MLN	609	26	23.423	34.33060	22	40.19%	1986	PIT	413	16	25.813	43.15824
23	61.64%	1957	MLN	615	44	13.977	36.43378	23	39.34%	1987	PIT	551	25	22.040	36.33553
24	43.76%	1958	MLN	601	30	20.033	35.62384	24	56.27%	1988	PIT	538	24	22.417	51.26114
25	55.84%	1959	MLN	629	39	16.128	36.52287	25	36.69%	1989	PIT	580	19	30.526	48.21758
26	63.56%	1960	MLN	590	40	14.750	40.47601	26	63.74%	1990	PIT	519	33	15.727	43.37147
27	49.65%	1961	MLN	603	34	17.735	35.22408	27	55.37%	1991	PIT	510	25	20.400	45.70979
28	65.62%	1962	MLN	592	45	13.156	38.26708	28	73.30%	1992	PIT	473	34	13.912	52.09826
29	68.21%	1963	MLN	631	44	14.341	45.10535	29	70.42%	1993	SFG	539	46	11.717	39.61605
30	47.98%	1964	MLN	570	24	23.750	45.65153	30	70.60%	1994	SFG	391	37	10.568	35.94517
31	57.61%	1965	MLN	570	32	17.813	42.01593	31	57.43%	1995	SFG	506	33	15.333	36.01930
32	65.90%	1966	ATL	603	44	13.705	40.19231	32	64.83%	1996	SFG	517	42	12.310	35.00496
33	69.19%	1967	ATL	600	39	15.385	49.93285	33	62.74%	1997	SFG	532	40	13.300	35.69256
34	66.09%	1968	ATL	606	29	20.897	61.63075	34	56.86%	1998	SFG	552	37	14.919	34.58090
35	72.21%	1969	ATL	547	44	12.432	44.72857	35	66.06%	1999	SFG	355	34	10.441	30.76772
36	65.62%	1970	ATL	516	38	13.579	39.49198	36	66.83%	2000	SFG	480	49	9.796	29.53178
37	77.96%	1971	ATL	495	47	10.532	47.79043	37	78.15%	2001	SFG	476	73	6.521	29.84417
38	71.57%	1972	ATL	449	34	13.206	46.44297	38	74.10%	2002	SFG	403	46	8.761	33.83199
39	77.02%	1973	ATL	392	40	9.800	42.63677	39	73.46%	2003	SFG	390	45	8.667	32.65362
40	67.14%	1974	ATL	340	20	17.000	51.72813	40	73.38%	2004	SFG	373	45	8.289	31.13914
41	13.16%	1975	MIL	465	12	38.750	44.62184	41			SFG
42		1976	MIL					42	54.88%	2006	SFG	367	26	14.115	31.28310
								43	63.30%	2007	SFG	340	28	12.143	33.08281
Age	HR%	yearID		AB	HR	HRrateP	HRrateL	Age	HR%	yearID		AB	HR	HRrateP	HRrateL
Aaron	Aaron	Aaron		Aaron	Aaron	Aaron	Aaron	Bonds	Bonds	Bonds		Bonds	Bonds	Bonds	Bonds
40	77.96%	1974		631	47	23.750	61.63075	40	78.15%	2004		580	73	30.526	52.09826
22	31.77%	1956		340	20	9.800	34.33060	22	36.69%	1986		355	16	6.521	29.53178

Teams are shown because Aaron's home run numbers improved when the Braves moved from Milwaukee to Atlanta in 1966. The San Francisco Giants hired former Aaron teammate on the 1973 Braves Dusty Baker as their manager for the 1993 season, the first for Bonds with the Giants. Baker managed the Giants through 2002 when they lost the World Series to the Angels.

Above you can see that Aaron didn't reach HR% 70% until ages 35, 37, 38, 39. Bonds: 28, 29, 30, 37, 38, 39, 40. They both peaked at age 37 and their HR% almost even: 0.29% apart.

	HR%	HR%	Team	Team
Age	Aaron	Bonds	Aaron	Bonds
22	31.77%	40.19%	MLN	PIT
23	61.64%	39.34%	MLN	PIT
24	43.76%	56.27%	MLN	PIT
25	55.84%	36.69%	MLN	PIT
26	63.56%	63.74%	MLN	PIT
27	49.65%	55.37%	MLN	PIT
28	65.62%	73.30%	MLN	PIT
29	68.21%	70.42%	MLN	SFG
30	47.98%	70.60%	MLN	SFG
31	57.61%	57.43%	MLN	SFG
32	65.90%	64.83%	ATL	SFG
33	69.19%	62.74%	ATL	SFG
34	66.09%	56.86%	ATL	SFG
35	72.21%	66.06%	ATL	SFG
36	65.62%	66.83%	ATL	SFG
37	77.96%	78.15%	ATL	SFG
38	71.57%	74.10%	ATL	SFG
39	77.02%	73.46%	ATL	SFG
40	67.14%	73.38%	ATL	SFG

Bonds is ahead ages 26-30, then about even age 31. Then Aaron starts playing his home games in Atlanta at age 32 and he sustains higher HR% than any in Milwaukee except for age 29 when Aaron hit 44 HR in 1963. His 45 HR in 1962 yielded a lower HR%.

But if his surge is because of the move to Atlanta, why did Aaron get a second boost ages 35-39 when all but age 36 were well over 70%?

Hank Aaron HR% Home/Road:

Maximum. Minimum for ages 22-40.

Cumulative career Home Runs are in the right column.

				Home	Road		Home	Road		Home	Road		Car
age	year	team	HR	HR	HR	AB	AB	AB	HR%	HR%	HR%	age	HR
20	1954	MLN	13	1	12	468	215	253	4.58%	-469.90%	44.11%	20
21	1955	MLN	27	14	13	602	283	319	32.59%	38.88%	25.81%	21	40
22	1956	MLN	26	15	11	609	295	314	31.77%	42.71%	16.85%	22	66
23	1957	MLN	44	18	26	615	304	311	61.64%	53.64%	67.17%	23	110
24	1958	MLN	30	10	20	601	279	322	43.76%	21.68%	54.81%	24	140
25	1959	MLN	39	20	19	629	300	329	55.84%	58.93%	52.59%	25	179
26	1960	MLN	40	21	19	590	283	307	63.56%	66.71%	60.08%	26	219
27	1961	MLN	34	19	15	603	287	316	49.65%	57.12%	40.19%	27	253
28	1962	MLN	45	18	27	592	286	306	65.62%	58.48%	70.38%	28	298
29	1963	MLN	44	19	25	631	302	329	68.21%	64.76%	70.82%	29	342
30	1964	MLN	24	11	13	570	265	305	47.98%	47.23%	48.61%	30	366
31	1965	MLN	32	19	13	570	291	279	57.61%	63.55%	48.92%	31	398
32	1966	ATL	44	21	23	603	294	309	65.90%	65.17%	66.57%	32	442
33	1967	ATL	39	23	16	600	283	317	69.19%	75.36%	60.32%	33	481
34	1968	ATL	29	17	12	606	294	312	66.09%	71.94%	57.81%	34	510
35	1969	ATL	44	21	23	547	266	281	72.21%	71.68%	72.69%	35	554
36	1970	ATL	38	23	15	516	252	264	65.62%	72.26%	55.43%	36	592
37	1971	ATL	47	31	16	495	243	252	77.96%	83.60%	67.04%	37	639
38	1972	ATL	34	19	15	449	221	228	71.57%	74.96%	67.27%	38	673
39	1973	ATL	40	24	16	392	208	184	77.02%	79.67%	73.03%	39	713
40	1974	ATL	20	11	9	340	165	175	67.14%	71.00%	62.41%	40	733
41	1975	MIL	12	4	8	465	218	247	13.16%	-22.14%	30.81%	41	745
42	1976	MIL	10	6	4	271	134	137	37.21%	48.25%	20.64%	42	755
40		Max	47	31	27	631	304	329	77.96%	83.60%	73.03%	40
22		Min	20	10	9	340	165	175	31.77%	21.68%	16.85%	22
age	year	team	HR	HR	HR	AB	AB	AB	HR%	HR%	HR%	age	HR
				Home	Road		Home	Road		Home	Road		Car

At age 39 both Aaron's home and road HR% are well above 70%.

At age 34 when he reached 500 home runs, did Aaron make a conscious decision to adjust his swing and approach to hit more home runs and try to break Babe Ruth's record of 714 career home runs?

Of his nine seasons in Atlanta, Aaron had only two which had higher HR% on the road and they were close. At age 37 Aaron had his highest total HR%: almost 78%, which broke down home/road: 83%, 67%.

Nolan Ryan, Tom House and steroids. Monday, August 11, 2014