Wednesday, August 31, 2022

The case against Roger Maris 61 Home Runs in 1961: expansion (25% more teams) and EIGHT (5.2%) more games.

Photo of Roger Maris

Roger Maris

Position: Rightfielder

Bats: Left  •  Throws: Right

6-0197lb (183cm, 89kg)

Born: September 101934 in Hibbing, MN us

Died: December 141985 (Aged 51-095d) in Houston, TX

Buried: Holy Cross Cemetery, Fargo, ND











Modern expansion started in 1961 in the American League (AL). Two new teams were added: Los Angeles Angels and new Washington Senators. The original Senators moved to Minnesota and were renamed the Twins. The new Senators moved in 1972 and became the Texas Rangers.

The National League (NL) added two new teams in 1962: New York Mets and Houston Colt 45's, renamed Astros.

Both leagues expanded from 8 to 10 teams. That's only two but the percentage increase was 25%. Both pitching and hitting was diluted because 25% of the participants would not have been in the league the previous year. So the average difference in runs scored and home runs (HR) might not be so much. But the difference among the league leaders might be significant.

The schedule was also increased 5.2%: 8 games from 154 to 162. That alone could be significant. At a 60 HR pace, it would add three HR: 63 instead of 60.

Here are the AL HR leaders for 1960, 1961, 1962:

196019611962
1Mantle • NYY401Maris • NYY611Killebrew • MIN48
2Maris • NYY392Mantle • NYY542Cash • DET39
3Lemon • WSH383Gentile • BAL463Colavito • DET37
4Colavito • DET35Killebrew • MIN46Wagner • LAA37
5Killebrew • WSH315Colavito • DET455Gentile • BAL33
6Williams • BOS296Cash • DET41Maris • NYY33
7Sievers • CHW287Allison • MIN297Mantle • NYY30
8Skowron • NYY268Smith • CHW288Kaline • DET29
9Maxwell • DET24Wagner • LAA28Allison • MIN29
10Hansen • BAL22Skowron • NYY2810Thomas • LAA26

Note: Mickey Mantle was injured and missed about one month in 1962; only 123 games and 502 PA; he was still voted AL MVP.

Of the six who hit at least 40 HR in 1961, all but Killebrew had career highs and Killebrew had a career high to that point; he would later hit 48, 49, 49. Here are the second most for the other five:

Maris • NYY391960
Mantle • NYY521956
Gentile • BAL331962
Killebrew • MIN
Colavito • DET421959
Cash • DET391962

Roger Maris had the same number of At Bats (AB) in 1961 and 1962: 590.

ABHRAB/HR
Maris590619.672131148
Maris5903317.87878788

60 Home Runs in 154 games: Ruth yes. Maris no. Bonds, McGwire, Sosa? Monday, June 12, 2017

But did he (Maris) reach 60 homers in his team's first 154 games?

Both the 1927 and 1961 Yankees played a tie game and so the team played 155 and 163 games respectively. Ruth broke his 1921 record of 59 HR when he hit number 60 in Yankee game 154 at the Stadium. Ruth did not homer in the final game, number 155.

In 1961 Maris for some reason was allowed that extra game, too, since the Yankees had already played their tie game way back on April 22, 1961 in Baltimore. Maris reached Yankee game 155 with 58 HR. Maris hit number 59 in that fateful night game Sept. 20, 1961, also in Baltimore. Maris would eventually tie and then pass Ruth in Yankee Stadium in Yankee games 159 and 163.

But what of Bonds, McGwire, Sosa? Here are the team game numbers for when they hit home runs 59, 60, 61.

RkPlayerHRABYear596061
1Barry Bonds734762001139141144
2Mark McGwire705091998139141143
3Sammy Sosa666431998148149150
4Mark McGwire655211999150155156
5Sammy Sosa645772001153157158
6Sammy Sosa636251999140148149
7Roger Maris615901961155159163
8Babe Ruth605401927152154

Maris was last for all three home runs, taking the most team games to hit them. Bonds and McGwire were almost dead even for the lead. After they hit number 60, they had 21 games remaining. McGwire hit another 10 and Bonds hit another 13. Amazing no matter what they were using.

So the performance enhancing drug (PED) users out performed Maris.
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Roger Maris is the only player to hit 60 Home Runs who did not do it in his team's first 154 games at least once.

Just yesterday a conventional wisdom for some was repeated:

Aaron Judge home run debate: Roger Maris’ untainted 61 is real record By Jon Heyman August 30, 2022 nypost.com

Of course, Roger Maris remains the real single-season home run record holder. In our hearts and minds, we all know that to be true...

... the misguided commissioner of the time threatening an asterisk ...
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How quaint.

Roger Maris, Ford Frick and the asterisk (*) for 61 Home Runs in 1961. Tuesday, June 6, 2017

... baseball commissioner Ford Frick, a former writer and an old friend of Ruth's. In late October 1960 Frick was quoted in the New York Times as saying: "It's a question that has been bothering me for some time. The principal records in the book seem safe … My opinion on that (Babe's record of 60) is almost a conviction. I don't think the Babe's record is vulnerable … but I intend to ask the rules committee to study this problem and try to soften the impact when necessary. My own idea is that some records might deserve to be listed in two categories - the one made during a 154-game schedule and the other one made during a 162-game schedule."

The origins of what would become known as the asterisk were earlier than most people realize.
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There was never an asterisk. Read that post. It's got some pretty interesting stuff.

So, basic common sense is that Roger Maris did not break the season record of Babe Ruth because Maris did not do it in his team's first 154 games. It seems pretty clear and fair. Maris hit his final two in these Yankee games:
159: 60
163: 61.

163

Come on. How much of a break does Maris deserve? Forget the steroids. Think about the number of games. And for something really refreshing:

Stop staring at Batting Average and Home Runs. Look at their percentage above the league. Sunday, January 30, 2022

We baseball fans are simple. That's a euphemism for stupid. We stare at numbers and marvel at them even when they are completely lacking context...

Home Runs: uh, that's it. Just a total. Not even a simple average or rate like AB divided by HR to get the common sense stat of the average number of AB to hit a homer.
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