Tuesday, July 16, 2024

16 Hall of Fame players with WAR >= 100: Jaffe WAR Score.

Remember, Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a total stat, not an average.

WAR for Babe Ruth below is for his predominantly batting seasons with the Yankees.

Ruth had been a starting pitcher with the Red Sox before that: primarily 1915, 1916, 1917; Ruth also batted on all games that he pitched; the Designated Hitter (DH) rule was introduced in 1973 in the American League (AL).

Ruth has an additional 20.4 WAR as a pitcher. His total WAR: 162.2 + 20.4 = 182.6. That's the career high for any AL/NL player/pitcher.

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https://cooperstowncasebook.com/about/

About Jay Jaffe

In January 2004, while at Baseball Prospectus, he introduced the system that became JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score). JAWS is a tool that facilitates the comparison of Hall of Fame candidates ...

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https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/11/28/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-introduction

It uses the baseball-reference.com version of Wins Above Replacement to estimate a player's total hitting, pitching and defensive value while accounting for the wide variations in scoring levels that have occurred throughout the game's history and from ballpark to ballpark. A player's JAWS is the average of his career WAR total and that of his peak, which I define as his best seven years. All three are useful for comparative purposes ...

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OK, that should get you into the proverbial ballpark. I created a spreadsheet for the top 16 Hall of Fame (HoF) players derived from:

For combined seasons, since 1903, Playing in the AL or NL, a member of the Hall of Fame, in the regular season, requiring Wins Above Replacement (WAR) >= 100, sorted by descending Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

https://stathead.com/tiny/tDbre

I also added Barry Bonds underneath the matrix for context, since Bonds has a slightly higher career WAR than the batting only number for Ruth. All seven of Ruth's best seven seasons are higher than the corresponding ones for Bonds: a shut-out.

Click this link to view the spreadsheet, which is also shown below.

RkPlayerWAR1234567Ave7WAR7JAWSJrkRk +-FromToAge
1Babe Ruth162.214.112.812.611.911.411.410.512.184.7123.4510Babe Ruth1914193519-40
2Willie Mays156.211.211.010.610.510.510.29.510.573.5114.8520Willie Mays1951197320-42
3Ty Cobb151.411.310.710.59.99.59.28.09.969.1110.2530Ty Cobb1905192818-41
4Henry Aaron143.19.49.18.68.58.58.08.08.660.1101.6040Henry Aaron1954197620-42
5Tris Speaker135.010.210.09.18.78.68.57.79.062.898.906-1Tris Speaker1907192819-40
6Stan Musial128.511.39.59.39.18.98.87.69.264.596.507-1Stan Musial1941196320-42
7Rogers Hornsby127.012.110.810.610.210.210.19.910.673.9100.4552Rogers Hornsby1915193719-41
8Eddie Collins124.310.59.79.49.19.08.97.99.264.594.409-1Eddie Collins1906193019-43
9Ted Williams121.810.610.510.49.79.59.08.39.768.094.9081Ted Williams1939196020-41
10Lou Gehrig113.711.910.09.79.69.58.68.39.767.690.65100Lou Gehrig1923193920-36
11Rickey Henderson111.19.99.98.86.96.76.76.37.955.283.1512-1Rickey Henderson1979200320-44
12Mel Ott110.98.98.37.87.27.27.27.27.753.882.3514-2Mel Ott1926194717-38
13Mickey Mantle110.211.311.210.49.58.76.96.49.264.487.30112Mickey Mantle1951196819-36
14Frank Robinson107.28.77.97.77.77.56.96.57.652.980.0515-1Frank Robinson1956197620-40
15Mike Schmidt106.99.88.98.98.07.97.77.78.458.982.90132Mike Schmidt1972198922-39
16Joe Morgan100.611.09.69.39.38.65.85.78.559.379.95160Joe Morgan1963198419-40
1234567Ave7WAR7JAWS
max14.112.812.611.911.411.410.512.184.7123.45
min8.77.97.76.96.75.85.77.652.979.95
Barry Bonds162.811.911.810.69.99.79.79.210.472.8117.80

Rk: rank order in the left column is for career WAR.

Columns 1 through 7 obviously have WAR in the top seven seasons in descending order. BOLD indicates that it was #1 in the league that season. Mantle's #7 is the lowest league leader: 6.4.

Ave7: the average of those seven seasons.

WAR7: Ave7 * 7

JAWS: (WAR+WAR7)/2; the average of the two

Jrk: JAWS rank order

Rk+-: Rk - Jrk; the difference; for instance:

Hornsby, Mantle and Schmidt all moved up two places.

Ott moved down 2;

Others moved up or down one.

The top four remained in their same positions.

#4 Aaron seems to be that high because of his very long career. His top season is lower than all 7 of Ruth's and 6 of Mays.

Robinson's top 3 are the lowest among these 16 players. Likewise Henderson's 4 and 5 and Morgan's 6 and 7.

Robinson has the lowest Ave7 and WAR7.

Morgan has the lowest JAWS.

Obviously, Ruth dominates, leading in everything.

Does JAWS help? My example is for all fielding positions. I wanted the top HoF in career WAR. Jaffe uses his method by position. Example: right fielders:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_RF.shtml

Fielding position starts among Jaffe's top right fielders:

Ruth: RF: 1,118; LF: 1,040

Aaron: RF: 2,134; LF: 304; CF: 297; 1B: 203

Musial: 1B: 989; LF: 868; RF: 678; CF: 306

Kaline: RF: 1,900; CF: 468; 1B: 110

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It is based on WAR, which is basically composed of oWAR and dWAR but not the simple addition of the two. As Jaffe notes, there are other versions of WAR.

There are different versions of current fielding stats and they don't always align. I am skeptical of current fielding stats. Trying to depend on fielding stats from previous epochs borders on the absurd. No disrespect to Jay Jaffe intended. He's got an interesting method.

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