Saturday, July 20, 2024

Yankees top 23 in career WAR analysed on Top7, JAWS, WAR/162, oWAR/dWAR.

Yankees in this post are analysed on their Yankee stats only.

Data for this post can be viewed by clicking this link. The data is also below in this post in segments with my comments. It was derived from:

For combined seasons, since 1903, Playing for NYY, in the regular season, requiring Wins Above Replacement (WAR) >= 40, sorted by descending Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

https://stathead.com/tiny/pdN6J

Note: Stats for Aaron Judge, the only active player, are through July 14, 2024

It was run for batting stats only. The result was 23 Yankee batters. WAR at least 40 excluded some who played only a few Yankee seasons: Jackson, Henderson, Gordon, Giambi, ... It includes Rizzuto, the surprise leader in dWAR:

Yankees top 50 career dWAR (defensive Wins Above Replacement). Thursday, June 27, 2024

Read about JAWS:

16 Hall of Fame players with WAR >= 100: Jaffe WAR Score. Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Remember, Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a total stat, not an average.

https://cooperstowncasebook.com/about/

About Jay Jaffe

In January 2004, while at Baseball Prospectus, he introduced the system that became JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score). JAWS is a tool that facilitates the comparison of Hall of Fame candidates ...

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https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/11/28/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-introduction

It uses the baseball-reference.com version of Wins Above Replacement to estimate a player's total hitting, pitching and defensive value while accounting for the wide variations in scoring levels that have occurred throughout the game's history and from ballpark to ballpark. A player's JAWS is the average of his career WAR total and that of his peak, which I define as his best seven years. All three are useful for comparative purposes ...

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It is based on WAR, which is basically composed of oWAR and dWAR but not the simple addition of the two. As Jaffe notes, there are other versions of WAR.

There are different versions of current fielding stats and they don't always align. I am skeptical of current fielding stats. Trying to depend on fielding stats from previous epochs borders on the absurd. No disrespect to Jay Jaffe intended. He's got an interesting method.

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Baseball-Reference.com WAR Explained

So why don't we compute Wins Above Average rather than Wins above Replacement? When computing the value of a major league player, average is a poor baseline for comparison. Average players are relatively rare and can be expensive to acquire. Average players don't make the league minimum. Plus, not all average performances are equal. A team would pay much more for 200 league average innings than for 50. When a star player is injured, they are rarely replaced by an average player -- usually their replacement is much worse.

That last point is our premise here. Average players are relatively rare and difficult to obtain. Replacement level players, by their very definition, are players easy to obtain when a starter goes down. These are the players who receive non-roster invites at the start of the year, or the players who are 6-year minor league free agents.

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It gets a lot worse if you click on the link above and try reading it.

Top7:

The top 7 WAR seasons for each player are in descending horizontal order 1 through 7; BOLD indicates that the value led the American League (AL) that season. All 7 of Ruth's led the AL. Red is minimum in that column.

Elsewhere generally:
maximum: BOLD in that column
minimum: red in that column

Rk: WAR rank
Ave7: average of 1 through 7
WAR7: Ave7 * 7 or total of 1 through 7
JAWS: (WAR+WAR7)/2  the average of the two
Jrk: JAWS rank order
Rk+-: Rk - Jrk; the difference; for instance, Lazzeri dropped 5 places, Cano moved up 5.

RkPlayerWAR1234567Ave7WAR7JAWSJrkRk +-Player
1Babe Ruth142.814.112.812.611.911.411.410.512.184.7113.7510Babe Ruth
2Lou Gehrig113.711.910.09.79.69.58.68.39.767.690.6520Lou Gehrig
3Mickey Mantle110.211.311.210.49.58.76.96.49.264.487.3030Mickey Mantle
4Joe DiMaggio79.19.38.48.37.16.96.45.77.452.165.6040Joe DiMaggio
5Derek Jeter71.38.07.56.65.65.25.04.66.142.556.9050Derek Jeter
6Yogi Berra59.66.26.15.85.35.34.94.55.438.148.857-1Yogi Berra
7Bill Dickey56.46.55.95.45.04.44.24.15.135.545.959-2Bill Dickey
8Willie Randolph54.16.65.85.35.04.74.64.15.236.145.1010-2Willie Randolph
9Álex Rodríguez54.09.49.47.66.84.54.24.26.646.150.0563Álex Rodríguez
10Bernie Williams49.66.45.55.45.25.25.24.55.337.443.5012-2Bernie Williams
11Aaron Judge47.810.58.06.46.15.95.64.56.747.047.4083Aaron Judge
12Roy White46.86.86.75.55.34.44.24.05.336.941.8513-1Roy White
13Tony Lazzeri46.37.86.44.74.43.93.53.14.833.840.0518-5Tony Lazzeri
14Thurman Munson46.17.26.65.55.34.94.13.55.337.141.60140Thurman Munson
15Earle Combs45.17.15.35.25.04.84.74.15.236.240.6517-2Earle Combs
16Robinson Canó44.48.48.16.76.65.84.53.26.243.343.85115Robinson Canó
17Graig Nettles44.48.05.75.65.54.94.72.75.337.140.75152Graig Nettles
18Brett Gardner44.37.45.04.34.24.13.83.64.632.438.3521-3Brett Gardner
19Jorge Posada42.75.95.55.44.44.04.03.54.732.737.7022-3Jorge Posada
20Charlie Keller42.46.86.66.66.15.64.92.55.639.140.75164Charlie Keller
21Don Mattingly42.47.26.56.35.14.23.72.85.135.839.10192Don Mattingly
22Phil Rizzuto42.26.85.85.44.64.64.03.65.034.838.50202Phil Rizzuto
23Gil McDougald40.75.85.15.14.53.93.93.84.632.136.40230Gil McDougald
RkPlayerWAR1234567Ave7WAR7JAWSJrkRk +-Player
max14.112.812.611.911.411.410.512.184.7113.75
min5.85.04.34.23.93.52.54.632.136.40

JAWS in rank order:

JrkPlayerJAWSRk +-
1Babe Ruth113.750
2Lou Gehrig90.650
3Mickey Mantle87.300
4Joe DiMaggio65.600
5Derek Jeter56.900
6Álex Rodríguez50.053
7Yogi Berra48.85-1
8Aaron Judge47.403
9Bill Dickey45.95-2
10Willie Randolph45.10-2
11Robinson Canó43.855
12Bernie Williams43.50-2
13Roy White41.85-1
14Thurman Munson41.600
15Graig Nettles40.752
16Charlie Keller40.754
17Earle Combs40.65-2
18Tony Lazzeri40.05-5
19Don Mattingly39.102
20Phil Rizzuto38.502
21Brett Gardner38.35-3
22Jorge Posada37.70-3
23Gil McDougald36.400
JrkPlayerJAWSRk +-

WAR7 in rank order:

WAR7 RkPlayerWAR7Rk difWAR RkWAR
1Babe Ruth84.701142.8
2Lou Gehrig67.602113.7
3Mickey Mantle64.403110.2
4Joe DiMaggio52.10479.1
5Aaron Judge47.061147.8
6Álex Rodríguez46.13954.0
7Robinson Canó43.391644.4
8Derek Jeter42.5-3571.3
9Charlie Keller39.1112042.4
10Yogi Berra38.1-4659.6
11Bernie Williams37.4-11049.6
12Thurman Munson37.121446.1
13Graig Nettles37.141744.4
14Roy White36.9-21246.8
15Earle Combs36.201545.1
16Willie Randolph36.1-8854.1
17Don Mattingly35.842142.4
18Bill Dickey35.5-11756.4
19Phil Rizzuto34.832242.2
20Tony Lazzeri33.8-71346.3
21Jorge Posada32.7-21942.7
22Brett Gardner32.4-41844.3
23Gil McDougald32.102340.7
WAR7 RkPlayerWAR7Rk difWAR RkWAR

Keller up and Dickey down move an astonishing 11 positions. Judge moves up 6 and replaces Jeter at #5. The top 4 reaming the same and in the same order. Second basemen: Cano moved up 9, Randolph down 8, Lazzeri down 7.

WAR/162: WAR/(Games/162):

WAR/162RkWAR
RkPlayerWAR/162difRkWARGG/162PAPA/GFromToAgePlayer
1Babe Ruth11.1001142.82,08412.8649,2034.4161920193419-40Babe Ruth
2Lou Gehrig8.5102113.72,16413.3589,6654.4661923193920-36Lou Gehrig
3Aaron Judge8.3281147.89315.7474,0434.3432016202424-32Aaron Judge
4Mickey Mantle7.44-13110.22,40114.8219,9104.1271951196819-36Mickey Mantle
5Joe DiMaggio7.38-1479.11,73610.7167,6724.4191936195121-36Joe DiMaggio
6Charlie Keller6.44142042.41,0666.5804,4664.1891939195222-35Charlie Keller
7Álex Rodríguez5.802954.01,5099.3156,5204.3212004201628-40Álex Rodríguez
8Thurman Munson5.2561446.11,4238.7845,9054.1501969197922-32Thurman Munson
9Robinson Canó5.2371644.41,3748.4815,7914.2152005201322-30Robinson Canó
10Willie Randolph5.17-2854.11,69410.4577,4654.4071976198821-33Willie Randolph
11Bill Dickey5.11-4756.41,78911.0437,0653.9491928194621-39Bill Dickey
12Earle Combs5.0231545.11,4558.9816,5144.4771924193525-36Earle Combs
13Gil McDougald4.94102340.71,3368.2475,3984.0401951196023-32Gil McDougald
14Graig Nettles4.6931744.41,5359.4756,2484.0701973198328-38Graig Nettles
15Yogi Berra4.56-9659.62,11613.0628,3553.9481946196321-38Yogi Berra
16Tony Lazzeri4.52-31346.31,65910.2417,0684.2601926193722-33Tony Lazzeri
17Brett Gardner4.2511844.31,68810.4206,6143.9182008202124-37Brett Gardner
18Derek Jeter4.20-13571.32,74716.95712,6024.5881995201421-40Derek Jeter
19Phil Rizzuto4.1232242.21,66110.2536,7194.0451941195623-38Phil Rizzuto
20Roy White4.03-81246.81,88111.6117,7364.1131965197921-35Roy White
21Bernie Williams3.87-111049.62,07612.8159,0534.3611991200622-37Bernie Williams
22Don Mattingly3.85-12142.41,78511.0197,7224.3261982199521-34Don Mattingly
23Jorge Posada3.78-41942.71,82911.2907,1503.9091995201124-40Jorge Posada
WAR/162PlayerWAR/162RkWARWARGG/162PAPA/GFromToAgePlayer
RkdifRk
max11.1014142.82,74716.95712,6024.58820162024max
min3.78-1340.79315.7474,0433.90919201934min

Judge moves up to third, past Mantle and DiMaggio. Keller moves up 14 to #6. McDougald moves up 10. Jeter takes a pounding, dropping 13 places. Williams is minus 11.

It's a fundamental re-ordering as WAR the total becomes an average and not dominated by those with very long careers such as Jeter.

PA/G: all three catchers (Dickey, Berra, Posada) and Gardner are lower than 4. Of the usual top 4, Ruth, Gehrig and DiMaggio are all 4.4 but Mantle is only 4.1, maybe because he pinch hit a lot and came out of games because of injuries. That may account for his slipping from #3 to #4.

oWAR/dWAR:

RkPlayerWARoWARdWARFromTo
1Babe Ruth142.8135.7-1.919201934
2Lou Gehrig113.7113.6-9.019231939
3Mickey Mantle110.2116.3-9.619511968
4Joe DiMaggio79.174.43.219361951
5Derek Jeter71.396.3-9.419952014
6Yogi Berra59.656.39.319461963
7Bill Dickey56.452.010.219281946
8Willie Randolph54.144.317.019761988
9Álex Rodríguez54.053.41.020042016
10Bernie Williams49.663.2-9.519912006
11Aaron Judge47.841.93.020162024
12Roy White46.844.1-5.819651979
13Tony Lazzeri46.346.75.219261937
14Thurman Munson46.143.211.919691979
15Earle Combs45.144.5-2.719241935
16Robinson Canó44.443.05.720052013
17Graig Nettles44.435.513.919731983
18Brett Gardner44.329.412.920082021
19Jorge Posada42.748.62.619952011
20Charlie Keller42.438.6-.919391952
21Don Mattingly42.439.7-6.219821995
22Phil Rizzuto42.229.723.019411956
23Gil McDougald40.731.214.019511960
RkPlayerWARoWARdWARFromTo
Max142.8135.723.020162024
Min40.729.4-9.619201934

dWAR: As noted earlier, Rizzuto is the all time Yankee leader and by a lot, especially considering his relatively short career (6,719 PA). Also at least plus 10: Randolph, McDougald, Nettles, Gardner, Munson, Dickey.

dWAR most negative:
Mantle -9.6 (-3.8 at 1B; -5.8 mostly in CF)
Williams -9.5
Jeter -9.4 (SS was his only fielding position)
Gehrig -9.0
Mattingly -6.2 (What!?)
White -5.8

Don Mattingly was a bad fielder? 1987 was his only season with positive dWAR: 0.2. Combine that with his modest top 7 WAR: 7.2 6.5 6.3 5.1 4.2 3.7 2.8 Those who advocate for Mattingly to be elected to the Hall of Fame have a weak case.

Mattingly was AL MVP in 1985. Here are AL fielding stats for 1985:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/1985-fielding-leaders.shtml

See if you can figure out why his dWAR was -0.8.

Mt. Rushmore: Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle. Giants come close. Tuesday, June 25, 2024

They're not going anywhere.

***   The End   ***

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