Friday, May 17, 2013

Mickey Mantle: 64 HR in Twilight Zone Squared.

Batting only righty but not in Yankee Stadium: 64 home runs (HR) in 1960 in 154 games.  Wow.   Mickey Mantle might have already broken the Babe Ruth HR record of 60, which would have deprived teammate Roger Maris of the record in 1961 when Maris hit 61 HR in 162 games.

Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Mickey Mantle batting only righty: 461 to 468 homers.

Mickey Mantle might have lost as many as 75 home runs (HR) had he batted only right handed instead of switch hitting...

Mickey in the Twilight Zone (TZ) of batting only righty would have been penalized greatly by playing his home games in Yankee Stadium, which had very long distances to the outfield walls in left and center...

Method two used Mickey's season HR rates (AB/HR) per season: 468 HR.
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Real Mickey hit 536 HR.  I'll use his TZ road HR from method two and simply double them.

Click link to view details.

home and road are TZ.
YS: TZ total: TZ home in Yankee Stadium plus TZ road
road*2: TZ road * 2
Leading the league in bold.

Year home road YS road*2 Real Dif
1951 2 2 5 5 13 -8
1952 9 21 30 43 23 20
1953 9 21 30 42 21 21
1954 10 10 20 19 27 -8
1955 6 21 27 42 37 5
1956 19 21 40 41 52 -11
1957 10 13 24 27 34 -7
1958 18 14 32 29 42 -13
1959 12 8 20 16 31 -15
1960 21 32 53 64 40 24
1961 10 26 36 52 54 -2
1962 8 4 12 7 30 -23
1963 7 10 17 20 15 5
1964 25 19 45 38 35 3
1965 13 10 23 19 19 0
1966 11 10 21 20 23 -3
1967 5 7 12 14 22 -8
1968 9 13 23 27 18 9
204 264 468 527 536 -9
Year home road YS road*2 Real Dif

Led league:
TZ YS: 1956, 1960
TZ R*2: 1952, 1955, 1956, 1960
Real: 1955, 1956, 1958, 1960

Career:
TZ: 468
TZ R*2: 527
Real: 536

Batting only righty Yankee Stadium cost Mickey: 527-468=59.

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Mickey Mantle: .400 BA batting only righty?

Righty against lefty pitchers:
Year  Tot vLhome vLroad   vLefties
1956 .353     .408 .338        .375
1957 .365     .417 .426        .421
1958 .304     .328 .436        .377
1961 .317     .337 .413        .371
1963 .314     .350 .435        .409 (66 AB v. lefties, 172 total AB)
1964 .303     .473 .381        .424

Four times on the road, three times at home, two times overall Mickey batted over .400 batting righty against lefty pitchers.  How rare is this?

From 1951 to 2013, vs LHP as RHB (within Platoon Splits), (requiring AB≥150 and batting_avg≥.400)
Rk I Player Split Year G BA GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1 Buster Posey vs LHP as RHB 2012 68 .433 181 164 71 18 1 13 47 0 1 14 21 .433 .470 .793 1.262 130 5 0 0 3 1 4 .436 160 229
2 Mickey Mantle vs LHP as RHB 1964 75 .424 186 158 67 11 1 15 51 3 2 28 26 .424 .511 .791 1.302 125 5 0 0 0 5 2 .444 155 263
3 Elston Howard vs LHP as RHB 1961 68 .423 178 163 69 7 3 8 35 0 0 12 20 .423 .466 .650 1.117 106 3 2 0 1 2 5 .449 139 199
4 Mickey Mantle vs LHP as RHB 1957 60 .421 175 152 64 13 4 8 28 2 1 23 19 .421 .497 .717 1.214 109 1 0 0 0 6 5 .448 105 230
5 Albert Pujols vs LHP as RHB 2008 83 .411 195 158 65 15 0 11 32 2 0 35 11 .411 .518 .715 1.233 113 4 1 0 1 14 1 .394 122 216
6 Mariano Duncan vs LHP as RHB 1990 81 .410 202 188 77 17 4 4 27 5 3 10 22 .410 .437 .606 1.044 114 5 0 3 1 1 3 .448 154 182
7 I Roberto Clemente vs LHP as RHB 1964 74 .409 203 176 72 17 2 7 27 0 1 22 19 .409 .468 .648 1.115 114 5 0 2 3 12 1 .425 154 212
8 Kirby Puckett vs LHP as RHB 1991 65 .406 165 155 63 8 5 7 24 3 2 8 19 .406 .436 .658 1.094 102 7 0 2 0 0 0 .434 167 196
9 Victor Martinez vs LHP as RHB 2010 69 .400 167 155 62 17 0 12 39 0 0 10 14 .400 .431 .742 1.173 115 9 0 0 2 3 1 .382 173 210
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/16/2013.

Thursday, May 9, 2013
Mickey Mantle batting only righty: .319 BA; .400 twice.

Mickey in the Twilight Zone (TZ) of batting only righty ...
1957 .407
1964 .414
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As indicated in the post above, TZ Mickey for full seasons batting right handed against all pitchers might have had batting averages (BA) over .400 in 1957 and 1964: .407 and .414.

In 1957 and 1964 Real Mickey had BA over .400 batting righty but, of course, only against lefty pitchers.  I did NOT simply assume that Mickey would have the same BA batting righty against righty pitchers.  Instead, as I have done in recent posts on Mickey Mantle, I applied to his real average, in this case BA, against righty pitchers home and righty pitchers road, the percent difference for that season for all MLB batters between:
- righty batters against lefty pitchers (the base)
- righty batters against righty pitchers.

I weighted Mickey's BA by his AB, home and road, in figuring his season BA.

Here are the MLB percent differences for each of Mantle's 18 seasons:
Year  MLB BA% Dif
1951 -6.37%
1952 -8.99%
1953 -3.75%
1954 -5.62%
1955 -6.37%
1956 -7.12%
1957 -6.37%
1958 -6.74%
1959 -5.99%
1960 -7.12%
1961 -6.37%
1962 -7.12%
1963 -11.99%
1964 -8.61%
1965 -11.61%
1966 -8.61%
1967 -11.61%
1968 -14.98%
tot -8.07%

In 1957 TZ Mickey got a break in that the MLB percent difference was below the overall 8%, it was only 6.37%.  So TZ Mickey's "penalty" was less than the general average during his career.  However, in 1964 the "penalty" was slightly higher: 8.61% .

Now you be completely anal about this and simply blow it off as idle conjecture or you can think about whether Mickey Mantle could have been the only .400 hitter since Ted Williams batted .406 in 1941 had Mickey's father not forced Mickey to switch hit.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Frankie Mantle?

FrankieFrischGoudeycard
1933
By Goudey [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
Frankie Frisch, the old Fordham (University) Flash, may have been the model for Elvin Charles "Mutt" Mantle (1912-1952) in teaching his son Mickey to hit both his natural righty and also lefty, to switch hit.  If that's the case then one wonders why Mutt named Mickey after Mickey Cochrane.  Both Frisch and Cochrane are in the Hall of Fame.  Both threw righty.  Cochrane, a catcher, chose to bat lefty.  Frisch, a second baseman, chose to switch hit.

Frisch played for his home town New York Giants (1919-1926) then was traded with Jimmy Ring to the St. Louis Cardinals (1927-1937) for second baseman Rogers Hornsby who had also managed the Cardinals to the 1926 World Series championship over the Yankees.  Hornsby's batting averages (BA) 1920-1926: .370, .397, .401, .384, .424, .403, .317.  Gee, one off season and he gets traded.  Hornsby was also 2.5 years older than Frisch and not as good a fielder.

Mutt Mantle must have known:
- Hornsby was a great righty hitter
- Frisch was a great switch hitter but not as good as Hornsby
- Cochrane was a great lefty hitter but not as good as Hornsby.

Why did Mutt Mantle choose to have his son switch hit like Frisch?  Did he really foresee an era of platooning and that being a switch hitter would give Mickey his best chance to play full time?  Obviously being as good as Hornsby would ensure that Mickey would play full time but who could be as good as Hornsby?  As it turned out: Mickey Mantle but how could Mutt have expected that?

In addition to Cochrane impressing Mutt enough to name his son after him, Frisch must have influenced Mutt even more.  Frisch was the best switch hitter before Mickey Mantle.  Mutt modeled his son's baseball career, not on Cochrane, but on Frisch.  Mickey Mantle became a middle infielder (shortstop) and switch hitter like Frisch, not a catcher and opportunist lefty batter like Cochrane.

Cochrane played in the World Series in 1929, 1930, 1931, 1934, 1936.

Frisch played in the World Series in 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1928, 1930, 1931, 1934.

Cochrane and Frisch played against each other in these World Series: 1930, 1931, 1934; Frisch won in 1931 and 1934.

Mickey Charles Mantle was born October 20, 1931 in Spavinaw, Oklahoma.  St. Louis, Missouri was the closest major league city and Mutt Mantle, born in 1912, must have followed those World Series between Cochrane and Frisch in the newspapers and possibly on the radio.  If Mutt knew enough about Cochrane to name his son after him he must have also known enough about Frisch to have his son switch hit starting just a few years later.

http://www.mickeymantle.com/bio.htm:

Every day when Mutt would come from from the mines, they would practice baseball next to an old tin barn.  Mutt would pitch tennis balls (right handed) to Mickey while he batted lefty.  Mickey's grandfather, Charlie, would then pitch left handed to Mickey while he batted righty. 

By the age of five, Mickey was already showing promising signs as a baseball player and impressing the neighbors.
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That means that Mickey Mantle was switch hitting in 1936, Joe DiMaggio's rookie season.  See previous post: Tuesday, May 14, 2013 Mickey Mantle: father knew best but for the wrong reason.

Mutt could have named his son Frankie.  Maybe Cochrane impressed him more than Frisch.  Maybe Mutt Mantle just liked the alliteration of Mickey Mantle.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Mickey Mantle: father knew best but for the wrong reason.

If he somehow knew that his son Mickey Mantle would have 4,848 plate appearances (PA) in Yankee Stadium, which was very difficult for right handed sluggers, then, yes, Mutt Mantle was correct when he started teaching his son to switch hit in 1936, Joe DiMaggio's rookie season.

FoxxRuthGehrigCochrane
Jimmie Foxx, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Mickey Cochrane
[CC-BY-1.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/1.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance (1962): "When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."

Yankee manager Casey Stengel won the World Series in his first five Yankee seasons (1949-1953) and was known for platooning players like Hank Bauer/Gene Woodling, Johnny Mize/Joe Collins.  I'm guessing that sports writers in the early 1950s retrofitted that into the Mantle legend and credited Mutt with seeing the future of platoon baseball (righty batters against lefty pitchers, lefty batters against righty pitchers).  That could have been reinforced by:

Father Knows Best (radio 1949-1954, television 1954–1960): TV actor Robert Young often, but not always, knew best.  In real life "he suffered from depression and alcoholism, culminating in a suicide attempt in January 1991".

Maybe it's documented somewhere but I cannot imagine what drove Mutt Mantle to force young Mickey to learn to switch hit.  Even now we do not have good lefty/righty splits for seasons before 1950.  Probably it was just Mutt's experience trying to hit curve balls and side arm pitchers.

We know that Mutt named his son after a player later elected to the as yet to be created Hall of Fame: Gordon Stanley Cochrane, better known as Mickey, also Black Mike.  In later life this became one of Mickey Mantle's standard laugh lines, that he was glad that his father didn't know Cochrane's real first name was Gordon.

Cochrane was a catcher who batted lefty and, of course, threw righty.  So he may have been a lefty batter of opportunity as most are.  Fewer than half of all lefty batters throw lefty.

By October 20, 1931 when Mickey Mantle was born Cochrane was 28 and had just completed his seventh full season, all with the Philadelphia As.  Philadelphia won the American League pennants in 1929, 1930, 1931, also winning the World Series in 1929 and 1930.  In 1928 Cochrane won the old MVP award.  The fact that Cochrane won the modern MVP award in 1934 as player/manager of the pennant winning Detroit Tigers is usually cited as influencing Mutt but obviously Mickey Mantle was already three years old by then.

Didn't Mutt realize the difficulty the great DiMaggio was having hitting home runs (HR) in Yankee Stadium?  Here are DiMaggio's splits for his career, rookie season, two seasons leading AL in HR and WS (lower is better):

           AB HR AB/HR
Home 2,758 126 21.89
Road 2,851 177 16.11

1936 home 288 8 36.00
1936 road 349 21 16.62

1937 home 306 19 16.11
1937 road 315 27 11.67

1948 home 294 15 19.60
1948 road 300 24 12.50

WS home  90 0
WS road       109 8 13.63

Not that Mutt knew that Mickey would one day play for the Yankees but that ball parks influence hitting too.

Friday, February 10, 2012
New way to switch hit.

While playing for the Angels 1964-1970 hot shot bonus baby righty slugger Rick Reichardt made his manager Bill Rigney who managed the Angels from their inception in 1961 into 1969 a little nuts by suggesting that he learn to bat lefty in order to take advantage of certain ball parks.  You know, bat righty in Fenway Park, lefty in Yankee Stadium regardless of which arm the pitcher used.  Most people thought Reichardt was nuts.  However, Reichardt may have been ahead of his time.  Reichardt wanted to take advantage of another stupid baseball rule that allows for non-uniform playing areas.
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Here's the thing that Mutt Mantle did not and could not know: his son Mickey was one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time.  Except for the Yankee Stadium factor, which was an accident, Mickey did not need to switch hit.

Friday, April 19, 2013
Mickey Mantle was a great right handed hitter.

Mickey Mantle is really the only great switch hitter and that seems to be because he was a really great righty batter.  Here is a list of 21 righty batters, both switch hitters and righty only, against lefty pitchers since 1950 sorted by OPS...

Despite the disadvantage of playing his home games in the original Yankee Stadium, which was very tough on righty batters, Mantle is in a virtual tie at the top with Aaron and Mays
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In recent posts I used the metaphor of the Twilight Zone TV program from the 1950s to describe Mickey Mantle batting right handed exclusively: TZ Mickey.  Here are the basic averages:

BA OBP  SLG OPS
.298 .421 .557 .977 Real
.319 .401 .550 .951 TZ

I left Mickey's numbers against lefty pitchers alone and used Mickey's averages as a base and for each of his 18 seasons and applied the average MLB percent difference between righty batters against lefty pitchers v. righty batters against righty pitchers.  For all four averages for all 18 seasons righty v. righty performed worse.

I'll review the numbers in detail in future posts but overall it appears that Mickey Mantle would have performed comparably well batting only right handed, especially if he had played his home games in a ball park more neutral to righty/lefty batting.

Mickey Mantle batting only righty: .951 OPS

Mickey Mantle might have reduced his On Base Percentage (OBP) plus Slugging average (SLG) (OPS) from .977 to .951 had he batted only right handed instead of switch hitting.

Click link to view detailed data.

Mickey in the Twilight Zone (TZ) of batting only righty against righty pitchers was calculated by simply adding TZ Mickey's OBP and TZ Mickey's SLG.

Real Mickey led the league in OPS in 1952, 1955, 1956, 1960, 1962, 1964.

TZ Mickey would still have led in 1952, 1955, 1960, 1964 but not 1956 and not 1962.  TZ Mickey would have also led in 1958.

Real Mickey's career splits by how the pitcher throws:
Where throws OPS
home L   .966
home R 1.014
road         L 1.034
road         R   .926



Year     TZ   Real    TZ-Real
1951 0.549 0.792 -0.243
1952 0.959 0.924 0.035
1953 0.999 0.895 0.104
1954 0.885 0.934 -0.049
1955 1.029 1.041 -0.012
1956 1.062 1.171 -0.109
1957 1.140 1.179 -0.039
1958 1.076 1.034 0.042
1959 0.764 0.905 -0.141
1960 1.115 0.959 0.156
1961 1.115 1.138 -0.023
1962 0.856 1.092 -0.236
1963 1.173 1.065 0.108
1964 1.247 1.017 0.230
1965 0.820 0.832 -0.012
1966 0.822 0.930 -0.108
1967 0.758 0.827 -0.069
1968 0.610 0.784 -0.174
           .951     .977   -.026

Monday, May 13, 2013

Mickey Mantle batting only righty: .550 SLG.

Mickey Mantle might have reduced his slugging average (SLG) from .557 to .550 had he batted only right handed instead of switch hitting.

Click link to view detailed data.

Mickey in the Twilight Zone (TZ) of batting only righty against righty pitchers went down at home in Yankee Stadium from .579 to .498 but up on the road from .522 to .549.

Real Mickey led the league in SLG in 1955, 1956, 1961, 1962.

TZ Mickey would still have led:
1955 over Al Kaline: .594 to .546.
1956 over Ted Williams .612 to .605
But not:
1961 Norm Cash over TZ Mickey .662 to .659
1962 Harmon Killebrew over TZ Mickey .545 to .438

TZ Mickey would have led:
1952 over Larry Doby .564 to .541
1960 over teammate Roger Maris .705 to .581
1964 over Boog Powell .767 to .606

Real Mickey's career splits by how the pitcher throws:
Where throws SLG
home L .552
home R .579    TZ: .498
road  L .598
road  R .522    TZ: .549

Real:
home .569
road .546



Year     TZ     Real  TZ-Real
1951 0.289 0.443 -0.154
1952 0.564 0.530 0.034
1953 0.609 0.497 0.112
1954 0.492 0.525 -0.033
1955 0.594 0.611 -0.017
1956 0.612 0.705 -0.093
1957 0.678 0.665 0.013
1958 0.603 0.592 0.011
1959 0.454 0.514 -0.060
1960 0.705 0.558 0.147
1961 0.659 0.687 -0.028
1962 0.438 0.605 -0.167
1963 0.722 0.622 0.100
1964 0.767 0.591 0.176
1965 0.460 0.452 0.008
1966 0.466 0.538 -0.072
1967 0.376 0.434 -0.058
1968 0.329 0.398 -0.069
                 .550          .557         -.007