Monday, August 22, 2016

Former Mets GM Steve Phillips proposes "my" idea to speed up games.

The fourth post on this blog:
Start at bats with the count 3-2 Thursday, April 24, 2008
Another great idea from slow pitch softball.
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Simple and to the point. It was repeated several times.

Today my friend Paul sent this:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets-gm-steve-phillips-wild-idea-speed-games-article-1.2723421

Ken your idea  3-balls, 2-strikes has been stolen.
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I replied:

Thanks for thinking of me. Actually, my idea is start the count at 3-2. I later made a concession and wrote that I would accept 2-1 in order to get things moving.

The commissioner is too busy counting profits to even be embarrassed that his speed up changes from spring 2015 never really went into affect and almost all batters step out on almost all pitches.
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From the Daily News article with "my" idea:

Former Mets GM Steve Phillips' proposal of two strikes you're out could work as MLB rule change
by JOHN HARPER, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS Saturday, July 23, 2016, 7:48 PM

... try an idea I heard from Steve Phillips, the former Mets’ GM and current MLB Radio Network host ...

Rather than four balls and three strikes, his format would have three balls for a walk and two strikes for a strikeout.


The idea sounds a bit too radical at first blush, but when you think about it, in today’s game it would be like starting every at-bat with a count of 1-1 on the batter. Would that really be such a bad thing?
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Sunday, August 21, 2016

FANGRAPHS elitism on steroids: xHR.

I was minding my own business checking fangraphs.com for something that might be worth reading. I spotted this:

FANGRAPHS COMMUNITY RESEARCH

xHR: A Speedy and Mandatory Revision
by Jackson Mejia - August 19, 2016


Annoying does not even begin to describe it. Insufferably elitist is kind.

I'm not a statistician and I don't expect to understand a lot of the more involved stuff but fangraphs.com has the practice of not defining term, which makes much of its stuff really difficult to understand.

For the article above I opened another tab in my browser (Chrome) for the fangraphs.com glossary, figuring that I might be able to get through the article by looking up pretty much everything. Even that didn't help.

I eventually found my way to:

Complete List (Offense)

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/offensive-statistics-list/

I then used my browser find menu item to look for stuff. I started with the subject of the article written by the insufferable humanoid: xHR. Not found. Nice touch.

I then tried the first stat mentioned: xHR/BBE. BBE was not found. Then the next: FBLDEV. Not found.

Then there was wFB/C. Putting x or w in front of a stat is supposed to mean something but I don't know what. I searched for xFB. Found: Weighted Fastball Runs. I had figured that FB was fly balls. Silly me.

I even found wFB/C in the glossary. Are you ready? C is per 100 pitches. Of course. Roman numeral C (100) and the the number of pitches. Who wouldn't know that?

It goes on, oh, and with FB%, which stands for Fly Ball percentage, which the glossary defines as FB/BIP. I happened to know that BIP stands for Balls In Play.

The writer condescendingly concluded by actually showing his equation for xHR. Please sit down and secure your seat belt.

As always, the formula:

xHR= (.170102188*FB% -.014640853*K% + .0000269758*AVGDST + .005672306*FBLDEV -.541845681)*BBE
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Search of the glossary for the stuff mentioned in the definition of xHR:

FB% (Fly Ball Percentage): The percentage of a batter’s balls in play that are fly balls, calculated as FB/BIP.

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the batter has struck out, calculated as strikeouts divided by plate appearances.

AVGDST: not found

FBLDEV: not found


BBE: not found

And, of course, a nice mix of constants, which make some point. Is there any possible explanation or defense for such elitism?

Friday, August 19, 2016

25 or more home runs so far in 2016.

The list is below. It includes Giancarlo Stanton who is out for the season and had only 381 at bats (AB). Rookie Trevor Story has the fewest AB: 372. Also with fewer than 400 AB: David Ortiz and Yasmany Tomas, the Cuban free agent in his second season with Arizona.

Several others could have been acquired by any team in the last couple of years, including Trumbo, Cruz, Frazier, Khris Davis, Napoli, Donaldson, Bruce, Chris Davis, Duvall.

OPS+
highest: Ortiz 164
lowest: Frazier 102

13 of the 26 have at least 100 strike outs, led by Chris Davis with 166. Ortiz has the fewest: 62.

Rk Player HR AB OPS+ Year Age Tm Lg G PA R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Mark Trumbo 35 468 115 2016 30 BAL AL 119 503 67 120 20 1 88 33 1 133 2 0 0 11 1 0 .256 .308 .528 .836 *9D/37
2 Edwin Encarnacion 34 450 140 2016 33 TOR AL 119 520 76 121 27 0 100 59 2 108 5 0 5 14 2 0 .269 .356 .556 .912 *D3
3 Nelson Cruz 31 437 148 2016 35 SEA AL 116 501 70 124 19 1 75 52 5 123 9 0 3 15 0 0 .284 .369 .545 .914 *D9
4 Todd Frazier 31 432 102 2016 30 CHW AL 116 491 66 90 13 0 74 50 1 119 4 0 5 9 9 2 .208 .293 .454 .747 *5/3D
5 Khris Davis 30 421 116 2016 28 OAK AL 112 452 58 106 17 1 75 19 0 118 7 0 5 15 1 2 .252 .292 .511 .803 *7D/H
6 Nolan Arenado 30 459 118 2016 25 COL NL 119 521 88 128 27 3 97 53 6 69 2 0 7 15 2 3 .279 .351 .547 .898 *5
7 Kris Bryant 30 452 153 2016 24 CHC NL 117 526 96 134 29 1 78 57 4 121 15 0 2 3 8 5 .296 .392 .564 .956 *579/386D
8 Mike Napoli 29 423 120 2016 34 CLE AL 112 483 77 111 20 1 85 56 1 153 2 0 2 11 4 1 .262 .350 .520 .870 *3D/H
9 Mookie Betts 28 507 138 2016 23 BOS AL 117 547 97 161 34 5 89 33 0 67 2 0 5 8 19 3 .318 .358 .570 .928 *9/H
10 Josh Donaldson 28 450 153 2016 30 TOR AL 119 536 96 130 26 5 80 77 5 92 6 2 1 13 6 0 .289 .399 .556 .954 *5D/H
11 Evan Longoria 27 463 139 2016 30 TBR AL 117 505 63 134 31 3 72 36 6 107 2 0 4 7 0 2 .289 .341 .544 .885 *5/D
12 Robinson Cano 27 487 136 2016 33 SEA AL 119 531 78 143 28 1 75 35 3 74 7 0 2 14 0 1 .294 .348 .522 .870 *4/D
13 Chris Davis 27 419 108 2016 30 BAL AL 116 497 76 93 17 0 65 69 3 166 6 0 3 3 1 0 .222 .338 .456 .794 *3/D9
14 Brian Dozier 27 450 132 2016 29 MIN AL 116 510 73 120 28 5 73 46 3 86 7 2 5 11 8 2 .267 .341 .531 .872 *4/HD
15 Chris Carter 27 408 106 2016 29 MIL NL 118 476 58 89 22 1 66 54 0 154 6 0 8 15 2 0 .218 .313 .475 .789 *3/H
16 Jay Bruce 27 434 117 2016 29 TOT NL 113 473 65 110 24 6 86 34 3 98 2 0 3 12 4 2 .253 .309 .523 .832 *9/DH8
17 Miguel Cabrera 27 449 151 2016 33 DET AL 119 510 66 139 23 1 78 54 10 88 3 0 4 20 0 0 .310 .384 .546 .930 *3/DH5
18 David Ortiz 27 395 164 2016 40 BOS AL 111 464 57 124 38 1 93 64 13 62 1 0 4 18 2 0 .314 .407 .620 1.028 *D/H3
19 Adam Duvall 27 400 111 2016 27 CIN NL 110 438 64 97 23 3 76 28 0 122 4 0 5 6 4 5 .243 .295 .518 .813 *7/93H5
20 Manny Machado 27 467 137 2016 23 BAL AL 115 513 83 142 35 0 72 41 9 86 2 0 3 11 0 3 .304 .361 .552 .913 *56
21 Trevor Story 27 372 119 2016 23 COL NL 97 415 67 101 21 4 72 35 2 130 5 2 1 5 8 5 .272 .341 .567 .909 *6/H
22 Carlos Santana 26 437 107 2016 30 CLE AL 116 506 63 107 21 1 63 63 0 78 2 0 4 14 5 1 .245 .340 .476 .816 *D3/H
23 Yasmany Tomas 25 390 113 2016 25 ARI NL 102 415 57 105 21 1 57 23 3 99 1 0 1 14 2 3 .269 .311 .521 .831 *7*9/H3
24 Brad Miller 25 400 129 2016 26 TBR AL 111 435 58 106 21 5 57 31 0 98 2 0 2 5 6 4 .265 .320 .530 .850 *6/H3D
25 Anthony Rizzo 25 433 155 2016 26 CHC NL 117 512 72 126 36 4 86 62 8 81 14 0 3 7 3 4 .291 .395 .566 .960 *3/H
Rk Player HR AB OPS+ Year Age Tm Lg G PA R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
26 Giancarlo Stanton 25 381 121 2016 26 MIA NL 103 432 52 93 19 1 70 45 4 131 4 0 1 5 0 0 .244 .329 .496 .826 *9/HD
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/19/2016.