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Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Donn Clendenon: could he have hit 50 homers in 1966 playing only on the road? What about all batters with at least 25 road homers but fewer than 50?

Donn Clendenon hit 25 home runs (HR) on the road in 1966 playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  By then the short fence in left field that boosted Ralph Kiner to two 50 HR seasons in 1947 and 1949 had been removed.  I examined seasons in which batters hit 50 HR and how they would have done playing only in the road parks.  See this post:

Tuesday, January 21, 2014  50 homers home/road splits. How many would they hit without their home park?

Jimmie Foxx is the big loser and Brady Anderson the big winner...

Obviously, some batters who finished with fewer than 50 HR might boost into the 50s but that is beyond the scope of this post.
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Now I will examine batters who hit at least 25 HR on the road but did not hit 50 HR for the season to determine whether playing only on the road they could have reached 50 HR.

Click link to view details; tab "25 HR road but < 50 total" is sorted by total HR.

Tuesday, January 14, 2014  25 homers home and/or road: the possibility of 50.

Clendenon homered every 90.7 at bats (AB) at home, every 12 AB on the road: 87 percent better on road.  Percent of home HR: 11.
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Clendenon hit only three HR at home for a total of 28, the lowest of any of the 59 seasons with at least 25 HR on the road but fewer than 50 HR for the season.  Next lowest HR total is Matt Williams: 7+25=32 with a whopping 324 at bats (AB) on the road, exceeded in this group only by:
Hank Aaron 329; 19+25=44 1963
Ryan Howard 325; 18+27=45 2009
Jeff Kent 325; 11+26=37 2002

Three with fewer than 250 AB:
Frank Thomas 246 15+25=40  1995
Barry Bonds 215 19+27=46  2002
Ted Williams 214 12+26=38  1957

Most recent:
Miguel Cabrera 2013 17+27=44  AB: 265 home/290 road; projects to 52.

Batters with few road AB are likely to project to >= 50.  So are those who just missed but had at least 25 HR on the road:


Player Year Team HRyear HRhome HRroad
Shawn Green 2001 LAN 49 19 30
Larry Walker 1997 COL 49 20 29
Mark McGwire 1987 OAK 49 21 28
Sammy Sosa 2002 CHN 49 24 25
Albert Pujols 2006 SLN 49 24 25
Harmon Killebrew 1962 MIN 48 20 28
Albert Belle 1996 CLE 48 22 26
Adrian Beltre 2004 LAN 48 23 25
Willie Stargell 1971 PIT 48 21 27

So will those with the highest road HR:

Player Year Team HRyear HRhome HRroad
Shawn Green 2001 LAN 49 19 30
Eddie Mathews 1953 ML1 47 17 30
Jim Gentile 1961 BAL 46 16 30
Jeff Bagwell 1999 HOU 42 12 30
Larry Walker 1997 COL 49 20 29
Mike Schmidt 1979 PHI 45 16 29
Jason Giambi 2003 NYA 41 12 29

Results in his post:

Thursday, January 30, 2014  At least 25 road homers but fewer than 50. Could they have hit 50 homers playing only on the road?

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