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Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Yanks, get OF who can hit 30 homers.

Is that so much to ask?

In 2015 the Yankees had three outfielders who had previously hit at least 30 homers in a season but not, of course, for the Yankees.

The 2015 Yankees had two players hit at least 30 homers:
Alex Rodriguez DH (born July 27, 1975) 33 in 523 At Bats (AB)
- Mark Teixeira 1B (born April 11, 1980) 31 in 392 AB.

Jacoby Ellsbury CF (born Sept. 11, 1983) 32 in 660 AB in 2011 for Boston; maybe Yankee GM Brian Cashman was delusional enough to think that Ellsbury would hit 30 for the Yankees.  So far 23 HR in 1,027 AB in two Yankee seasons but the seven year contract at $21 million per year is still young.

Carlos Beltran RF (born April 24, 1977) 41, 38, 33, 32; most recently in 2012 for St. Louis.  Beltran tied the Met record for homers in a season with 41 in 2006.  In two Yankees seasons: 34 HR in 880 AB.

Chris Young reserve OF (born Sept. 5, 1983) 32 HR in 569 AB for Arizona in 2007, Young's first full season.  For Yanks in 1.33 seasons: 17 HR in 389 AB.  Boston signed free agent Young to a two year contract to back up their young OF.

Aaron Hicks reserve OF (born Oct. 7, 1989) 20 HR in 819 AB.
It's not likely that Ellsbury, Beltran or LF Brett Gardner (16 HR in 571 AB in 2015) will get anywhere near 30 HR in 2016.  Brian Cashman has built his OF on the Brett Gardner model.  Cashman signed Ellsbury for the 2014 season even though Ellsbury was a more expensive version of Gardner: speedy CF, steals bases, does not hit homers.  Now Cashman has even replaced reserve Chris Young with yet another Gardner type: Aaron Hicks.  When Beltran does not play, the Yanks can use three CF who do not hit homers.

There are two free agent OF available who have hit at least 30 homers in a season:
Photo of Justin Upton
- Justin Upton (born Aug. 25, 1989) 31 HR in 592 AB (most in career) for Arizona in 2011.  Also 26 in 2009 and in the last three years: 27, 29, 26.  Not bad.
Photo of Yoenis C├ęspedes
- Yoenis Cespedes (born Oct. 18, 1985 in Cuba) 35 HR in 633 AB in 2015:
    Tigers: 18 HR in 403 AB
    Mets: 17 HR in 233 AB.

Beltran has one more year left on his contract, so why acquire an OF now?  Which Yankees are most likely to break down in 2016?  Rodriguez and Beltran.  If Rodriguez, the Yankees would replace him with Beltran.  To replace Beltran: Aaron Hicks or minor league OF Aaron Judge (born April 26, 1992).  Judge is the prospect Yankee fans like.  That's because they never bother to check his AAA numbers, all in 2015: 260 plate appearances (PA): OPS .680; 8 HR in 228 AB.

Red Sox OF Jackie Bradley in 2015 in 255 MLB PA: OPS .832; 10 HR in 221 AB.  Just for comparison and perspective.

So how about considering Upton or Cespedes?  Please.

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