One seed is more valuable than most realize.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012 MLB tournament: inadvertently less random with one more team?

a less random tournament format, which will hopefully get the two top seeds through this nonsense and into the finals ...

The four seed in each conference should be at a big disadvantage because it will have to play its way into the tournament by using one of its top two pitchers, maybe both.  The one seed is unlikely to have to break a division tie (MLB should just use head to head as a tie breaker, then record in division), although it may have to play hard down the stretch to win the division.  Most likely is that the one seed will be rested and waiting for a tired and depleted four seed, thus ensuring that the types of upsets that occurred in 2011 will become rare.
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The Yankees have a problem entering the final month of the 2012 regular season.  It's not just that Baltimore and Tampa are challenging the Yankees for first place in the American Conference (AC) East division.  Losing first place would drop the Yankees into the dreaded wild card group, almost ensuring that the Yanks go yet another season without winning the Major Baseball League (MBL) tournament.  The Yanks are also in trouble because even if they finish first in their division the Texas Rangers currently would be the number one seed in the AC.

Here are my non-statistical guesses for how this will work.

1. The one seed will defeat the four seed (winner of the play-in game between the two wild card teams) 75% of the time in the five game series, often in a sweep.  The four seed may be starting it's three or four starter in game one v. the one seed's ace.  The four seed will have all hands on deck in that play-in game, probably after battling just to get into the game.

2. The two and three seeds, both division winners, will be evenly matched and will play a long and difficult series in the first round.

3. In round two a rested one seed will defeat a depleted 2/3 seed 60% of the time in the seven game series.

If my guesses are even close, teams should make a conscious decision to be the one seed.  Will they? Will Yankee manager Joe Girardi go after it?  Will Texas manager Ron Washington?  I'm guessing that neither the field mangers, nor the general managers of MBL teams have realized the obvious, that the one seed has a much easier path to the finals.