Monday, February 25, 2013

Bats/Throws: BAbip percent differences

See previous post.  Click link to view data and graphs.

Definitions:
Both: switch hitters
RR: bats right, throws right
RL: bats right, throws left
LR: bats left, throws right
LL: bats left, throws left
BR: bats both, throws right
BL: bats both, throws left

Batting average (BA) is for seasons 1903-2012.  BAbip (BA on balls in play) is for seasons 1910-2012.

                RL     LR     LL     BR        BL
BA    -19.05% 6.08% 5.41% 1.00% -12.99%
BAbip -10.26% 3.15% 3.82% 0.90% -5.40%
BAbip1B -8.31% 3.03% 3.14% 1.86% -3.91%
BAbip2B -22.86% 2.58% 5.13% -5.96% -15.60%
BAbip3B -23.69% 24.62% 34.25% 16.60% -0.40%

Batters who bat right and throw right (RR) are the base and the percent difference is from RR.  These are the averages for the seasons, not pure averages in the aggregate, i.e., each season counts the same regardless of the number of plate appearances (PA).

In plain old fashion BA lefty batters exceed RR: LR by 6%, LL by 5.4%.

I had expected that lefty batters to also have higher BAbip than righty batters but that the advantage would decrease with distance, that the biggest advantage would be with singles, less so with doubles, even less with triples.

Surprise!  Lefties have a whopping advantage on triples.  Why?  Beats me.

And in all four BAbip there's clearly a different advantage over righties between lefties depending on how they throw.  LL beat LR in each.
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In recent seasons that has changed.  Here are the numbers for 2012.

                RL     LR     LL     BR        BL
BA       -10.06% -1.33% -0.20% -0.43% 3.48%
BAbip -2.81% 0.20% 1.81% -0.97% 3.51%
BAbip1B -7.25% -0.57% 0.70% -1.31% 2.09%
BAbip2B 18.27% 1.50% 3.35% -4.39% 10.06%
BAbip3B -64.44% 24.44% 50.00% 45.56% 23.33%

Lefties still do a lot better in triples, especially LL, and LL continue to have the edge in all four BAbip over LR.  However, RR now have higher BA and the lefty lead in BAbip has shrunk.

My guess is home runs and strike outs have reduced the natural advantage of batting lefty with less bunting to get a hit.  But it's just a guess.

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