PItchers WAR in 1978 is curious.

In 1978, before Wins Above Replacement (WAR) had been invented, the issue was the American League (AL) Most Valuable Player (MVP) award. Should it go to Yankee pitcher Ron Guidry or Red Sox outfielder Jim Rice? Rice led the AL in Hits, 3B, HR, RBI, SLG, TB and unbeknownst back then OPS+. Rice was awarded the MVP and Guidry the Cy Young award as best pitcher with what was considered an historically great season.

But look what the magic of WAR reveals:

Rk	Player	WAR	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	GS	CG	SHO	GF	W	L	W-L%	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	ERA+	HR	BF	AB	2B	3B	IBB	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	PO	BK	WP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	Pit	Str
1	Phil Niekro	10.0	1978	39	ATL	NL	44	42	22	4	1	19	18	.514	1	334.1	295	129	107	102	248	2.88	2.76	142	16	1389	1254	42	10	5	13	13	6	13	34	12	4	3	11	.235	.298	.323	.621	71
2	Ron Guidry	9.6	1978	27	NYY	AL	35	35	16	9	0	25	3	.893	0	273.2	187	61	53	72	248	1.74	2.19	208	13	1057	969	34	5	1	1	13	2	15	9	14	2	1	7	.193	.249	.279	.528	50
3	Mike Caldwell	8.1	1978	29	MIL	AL	37	34	23	6	1	22	9	.710	1	293.1	258	90	77	54	131	2.36	2.94	160	14	1176	1102	36	0	3	7	7	6	25	11	7	1	1	8	.234	.273	.305	.578	62
4	Dennis Eckersley	7.3	1978	23	BOS	AL	35	35	16	3	0	20	8	.714	0	268.1	258	99	89	71	162	2.99	3.70	139	30	1121	1028	38	4	8	7	7	8	19	26	5	0	0	3	.251	.302	.383	.685	83
5	Dave Goltz	6.6	1978	29	MIN	AL	29	29	13	2	0	15	10	.600	0	220.1	209	72	61	67	116	2.49	3.17	155	12	913	826	39	5	1	1	10	8	17	10	13	1	1	4	.253	.307	.356	.663	84
6	Jon Matlack	6.4	1978	28	TEX	AL	35	33	18	2	2	15	13	.536	1	270.0	252	93	68	51	157	2.27	2.71	165	14	1097	1027	31	7	4	4	12	3	14	16	13	7	0	8	.245	.283	.330	.613	72
7	Jim Palmer	6.3	1978	32	BAL	AL	38	38	19	6	0	21	12	.636	0	296.0	246	94	81	97	138	2.46	3.48	143	19	1197	1085	33	6	1	1	10	4	21	18	17	1	1	5	.227	.290	.321	.611	76
8	Bob Knepper	6.3	1978	24	SFG	NL	36	35	16	6	1	17	11	.607	0	260.0	218	85	76	85	147	2.63	2.98	131	10	1062	953	40	2	11	4	11	9	19	16	8	0	0	6	.229	.292	.306	.599	76
9	Vida Blue	5.8	1978	28	SFG	NL	35	35	9	4	0	18	10	.643	0	258.0	233	87	80	70	171	2.79	2.68	123	12	1042	948	31	9	4	0	16	8	19	14	15	3	0	5	.246	.295	.335	.631	84
10	Luis Tiant	5.6	1978	37	BOS	AL	32	31	12	5	1	13	8	.619	0	212.1	185	80	78	57	114	3.31	3.98	126	26	863	790	34	1	4	5	7	3	18	14	6	2	2	0	.234	.289	.378	.667	77
11	Craig Swan	5.6	1978	27	NYM	NL	29	28	5	1	0	9	6	.600	0	207.1	164	62	56	58	125	2.43	3.00	143	12	819	750	33	4	8	2	5	4	12	16	9	2	0	1	.219	.275	.321	.597	75

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/12/2016.

Those are the pitching WAR leaders for both the AL and National League (NL). Back then the Milwaukee Brewers were in the AL before commissioner/owner Allan Huber "Bud" Selig moved his team to the NL in 1998.

I doubt that anyone back then would have thought that Phil Niekro was a better pitcher than Ron Guidry or that Niekro had a better season in 1978. Part of that would have been influenced by their won loss records: Niekro 19-18, Guidry 25-3. But Guidry's ERA was more than a run lower and his uninvented ERA+ advantage was huge: 208 to 142.

But WAR is a total, not an average like ERA or ERA+. Niekro had many more innings: 334 to 273. And they were tied in SO. OPS+ against them: big advantage Guidry:

The only explanation is that the AL replacement pitcher was better and that Guidry had to exceed a higher level. Of the top 11 pitchers listed above, only 4 are NL and numbers 2-7 are all AL.

Niekro was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1997 and he is a member of its board of directors. Guidry has not been elected and his 15 years of eligibility have expired; Guidry is unlikely to ever be elected by any of the increasing number and variety of veterans committees.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml

Pitcher WAR Calculations and Details

... Runs Allowed (both earned and unearned) and Innings Pitched ...

Adjusting for Team Defense

Adjusting Averages for Starters and Relievers

Custom Park Factors

Adjusting for Leverage

Setting Replacement Level for all Pitchers

Fine-Tuning Replacement Level

Computing WAR

WAR = WAR_rep + WAA + WAA_adj
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1978 Cy Young and MVP votes. Tuesday, April 12, 2016 3:57 PM