Aaron Judge: does .413 BA on balls in play (BAbip) suggest dominance or coming adjustment?

163 batters in 2017 have enough plate appearances (PA) to qualify for leading in average stats at the half way point of the season.

BA on balls in play (BAbip) is a somewhat odd stat: (Hits - Home Runs) / (AB - SO - HR + SF). It makes more sense for batters than applying what batters did against particular pitchers.

For batters BAbip can bounce between a couple of interpretations. Its conventional wisdom is that a player with a too high BAbip is lucky and doomed to an equal and opposite performance. The other is that it reflects the type of batter: maybe slow, maybe often making soft contact, maybe often hitting the crap out of the ball.

Here are the top and bottom batters with a league average of about .298.

Rk	Player	BAbip	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Ben Gamel	.459	2017	25	SEA	AL	57	248	221	41	77	15	2	4	27	22	0	61	1	1	3	3	2	0	.348	.405	.489	.894	*97/3
2	Aaron Judge	.413	2017	25	NYY	AL	76	334	273	70	89	12	3	27	62	58	4	96	3	0	0	10	6	2	.326	.449	.689	1.138	*9/DH
3	Miguel Sano	.385	2017	24	MIN	AL	72	301	259	46	70	11	2	18	54	42	5	106	0	0	0	6	0	0	.270	.372	.537	.909	*5D/3H
4	Avisail Garcia	.384	2017	26	CHW	AL	75	309	289	40	92	17	3	11	51	13	2	67	7	0	0	8	2	2	.318	.362	.512	.875	*9/DH
5	Tim Beckham	.383	2017	27	TBR	AL	72	289	267	28	74	5	3	10	31	18	0	91	2	1	1	6	5	3	.277	.326	.431	.757	*6/4H
6	Corey Dickerson	.374	2017	28	TBR	AL	77	340	316	60	103	20	3	17	39	19	3	70	3	0	1	5	2	3	.326	.369	.570	.938	*D7/H
7	Xander Bogaerts	.372	2017	24	BOS	AL	76	326	299	49	94	20	4	5	36	23	3	56	3	0	1	9	9	1	.314	.368	.458	.826	*6
8	Zack Cozart	.371	2017	31	CIN	NL	59	259	223	40	72	16	5	9	33	32	0	47	1	0	3	3	2	0	.323	.405	.561	.966	*6/D
9	Keon Broxton	.364	2017	27	MIL	NL	77	275	248	45	61	12	4	13	32	22	1	104	4	0	1	2	14	5	.246	.316	.484	.800	*8/H
10	Matt Kemp	.363	2017	32	ATL	NL	66	279	263	31	81	20	0	12	38	16	2	61	0	0	0	14	0	2	.308	.348	.521	.869	*7/DH

151	Albert Pujols	.250	2017	37	LAA	AL	75	323	300	24	70	9	0	11	52	20	3	56	0	0	3	12	1	0	.233	.279	.373	.652	*D/3H
152	Anthony Rizzo	.243	2017	27	CHC	NL	79	354	291	48	75	15	1	18	50	48	7	40	13	0	2	7	5	2	.258	.384	.502	.886	*3/4H7
153	Josh Bell	.242	2017	24	PIT	NL	80	302	268	39	62	13	2	15	37	32	2	60	1	0	1	10	2	1	.231	.315	.463	.777	*3/HD
154	Carlos Santana	.241	2017	31	CLE	AL	78	346	298	46	67	18	1	9	41	45	4	49	2	0	1	7	3	0	.225	.329	.383	.712	*3/D9
155	Alex Gordon	.236	2017	33	KCR	AL	70	274	238	23	46	10	1	3	20	25	2	55	8	1	2	3	1	2	.193	.289	.282	.571	*7/8H9
156	Rougned Odor	.231	2017	23	TEX	AL	80	336	319	38	66	11	2	13	34	12	1	78	4	0	1	5	9	4	.207	.244	.376	.620	*4/D
157	Joey Gallo	.228	2017	23	TEX	AL	74	279	242	47	47	11	2	21	41	34	0	107	3	0	0	1	5	0	.194	.301	.517	.818	*53/H7
158	Manny Machado	.226	2017	24	BAL	AL	74	325	291	33	63	15	0	15	38	30	2	67	1	0	3	7	4	1	.216	.289	.423	.712	*5
159	Mike Napoli	.225	2017	35	TEX	AL	65	254	225	28	43	6	0	14	32	22	3	84	4	0	2	8	0	1	.191	.273	.404	.677	*3D/H
160	Maikel Franco	.224	2017	24	PHI	NL	74	310	283	26	62	13	0	10	38	23	2	44	1	0	3	15	0	0	.219	.277	.371	.648	*5/DH
161	Todd Frazier	.216	2017	31	CHW	AL	70	289	244	34	52	11	0	15	39	41	1	61	1	0	3	2	4	3	.213	.325	.443	.768	*5D/3H
162	Jose Reyes	.214	2017	34	NYM	NL	76	296	263	33	53	10	4	6	26	28	1	39	0	3	2	2	10	1	.202	.276	.338	.615	*65/H8
163	Kyle Schwarber	.193	2017	24	CHC	NL	64	261	222	31	38	10	0	12	28	36	1	75	3	0	0	3	0	0	.171	.295	.378	.673	*7/HD23

Only Ben Gamel and Aaron Judge have BAbip at least .400. They were teammates on the Yankee AAA 2016 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. Maybe GM Brian Cashman was paying too much attention to Clint Frazier when he sent Gamel to Seattle for Juan De Paula (minors) and Jio Orozco (minors).

Gamel seems more like a lucky candidate than Judge, who has been hitting the crap out of the ball when he does hit it (number 8 in SO with 96) and leads in exit velocity.

Among the bottom batters in BAbip are: Pujols (sixth worst in 2016) and Machado. Pujols is rated the slowest runner in the league. Machado is likely hitting in bad luck and maybe more soft contact than usual. Gallo has 21 HR and a "league" leading 107 SO but neither counts in BAbip. See, it's odd, especially if used for pitchers. Frazier is third worst in 2017 and was worst in 2016, so serious problems.

Bryce Harper is number 17 in 2017 with .356 but was number 138 of 146 in 2016 with .264. Harper might have hit in bad luck in 2016.

DJ LeMahieu led in 2016 with .388 and also led in BA with .348.

2016:

Rk	Player	BAbip	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	DJ LeMahieu	.388	2016	27	COL	NL	146	635	552	104	192	32	8	11	66	66	2	80	3	8	6	19	11	7	.348	.416	.495	.911	*4/H
2	Starling Marte	.380	2016	27	PIT	NL	129	529	489	71	152	34	5	9	46	23	5	104	16	1	0	8	47	12	.311	.362	.456	.818	*78/H
3	J.D. Martinez	.378	2016	28	DET	AL	120	517	460	69	141	35	2	22	68	49	2	128	3	0	5	13	1	2	.307	.373	.535	.908	*9/HD
4	Jonathan Villar	.373	2016	25	MIL	NL	156	679	589	92	168	38	3	19	63	79	4	174	2	5	4	7	62	18	.285	.369	.457	.826	*654/H
5	Mike Trout	.371	2016	24	LAA	AL	159	681	549	123	173	32	5	29	100	116	12	137	11	0	5	5	30	7	.315	.441	.550	.991	*8D/H
6	Freddie Freeman	.370	2016	26	ATL	NL	158	693	589	102	178	43	6	34	91	89	18	171	10	0	5	12	6	1	.302	.400	.569	.968	*3
7	Joey Votto	.366	2016	32	CIN	NL	158	677	556	101	181	34	2	29	97	108	15	120	5	0	8	16	8	1	.326	.434	.550	.985	*3/HD
8	Cesar Hernandez	.363	2016	26	PHI	NL	155	622	547	67	161	14	11	6	39	66	4	116	2	5	2	6	17	13	.294	.371	.393	.764	*4/H6
9	Paul Goldschmidt	.358	2016	28	ARI	NL	158	705	579	106	172	33	3	24	95	110	15	150	7	0	8	14	32	5	.297	.411	.489	.899	*3/D
10	J.T. Realmuto	.357	2016	25	MIA	NL	137	545	509	60	154	31	0	11	48	28	1	100	5	0	3	12	12	4	.303	.343	.428	.771	*2H/D

2017 so far for them:
25. LeMahieu .346
Marte: suspended 80 games for using PED; may return July 18, 2017
Martinez: not enough PA
105. Villar .287
Trout: not enough PA
Freeman: not enough PA
104. Votto .288
Hernandez: not enough PA
12. Goldschmidt .360
47. Realmuto .328

So what about Judge? Can he sustain his .413 BAbip for the second half of 2017 and have a rookie season for the ages? Can he keep it above .388, the 2016 high, which would give Judge about .400 BAbip for the entire 2017 season? It's been done only 16 times since 1913:

Rk	Player	BAbip	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Babe Ruth	.423	1923	28	NYY	AL	152	697	522	151	205	45	13	41	130	170		93	4	3			17	21	.393	.545	.764	1.309	97/83
2	Rogers Hornsby	.422	1924	28	STL	NL	143	642	536	121	227	43	14	25	94	89		32	2	13			5	12	.424	.507	.696	1.203	*4
3	George Sisler	.422	1922	29	SLB	AL	142	655	586	134	246	42	18	8	105	49		14	3	16			51	19	.420	.467	.594	1.061	*3/H
4	Ty Cobb	.416	1922	35	DET	AL	137	613	526	99	211	42	16	4	99	55		24	4	27			9	13	.401	.462	.565	1.026	*8/H
5	Ty Cobb	.415	1913	26	DET	AL	122	504	428	70	167	18	16	4	67	58		31	4	11			51		.390	.467	.535	1.002	*8/94
6	Harry Heilmann	.414	1923	28	DET	AL	144	627	524	121	211	44	11	18	115	74		40	5	23			9	7	.403	.481	.632	1.113	*93/H
7	Rogers Hornsby	.409	1921	25	STL	NL	154	674	592	131	235	44	18	21	126	60		48	7	15			13	13	.397	.458	.639	1.097	*4/7653
8	Rod Carew	.408	1977	31	MIN	AL	155	694	616	128	239	38	16	14	100	69	15	55	3	1	5	6	23	13	.388	.449	.570	1.019	*3/H4D
9	Jose Hernandez	.404	2002	32	MIL	NL	152	582	525	72	151	24	2	24	73	52	5	188	4	0	1	19	3	5	.288	.356	.478	.834	*6/H
10	Manny Ramirez	.403	2000	28	CLE	AL	118	532	439	92	154	34	2	38	122	86	9	117	3	0	4	9	1	1	.351	.457	.697	1.154	*9D
11	Roberto Clemente	.403	1967	32	PIT	NL	147	632	585	103	209	26	10	23	110	41	17	103	3	0	3	15	9	1	.357	.400	.554	.954	*9/H8
12	George Sisler	.401	1920	27	SLB	AL	154	692	631	137	257	49	18	19	122	46		19	2	13			42	17	.407	.449	.632	1.082	*3/1
13	Ty Cobb	.401	1919	32	DET	AL	124	548	497	92	191	36	13	1	67	38		22	1	9			28		.384	.429	.515	.944	*8/H
14	Luke Appling	.400	1936	29	CHW	AL	138	618	526	111	204	31	7	6	128	85		25	1	6			10	6	.388	.474	.508	.981	*6/H
15	Bill Terry	.400	1930	31	NYG	NL	154	708	633	139	254	39	15	23	129	57		33	1	19			8		.401	.452	.619	1.071	*3
16	Ty Cobb	.400	1917	30	DET	AL	152	672	588	107	225	44	24	6	106	61		34	4	16			55		.383	.444	.570	1.014	*89/H

Jose Hernandez is the most recent and the one who least fits with the others. Hernandez and Manny Ramirez are only ones not in the Hall of Fame. Hernandez led in SO with 188. Remember, SO don't count in BAbip. Aaron Judge might lead in SO in 2017. And HR, which also don't count in BAbip.