Monday, January 7, 2019

Brian Cashman will pay Chapman and Britton $30 million for 140 innings.

Brian Cashman has been general manager of the New York Yankees since February 1998. In other words, way too long.

Cashman overpaid Mariano Rivera: career (1995-2013) $169 million for 1,283 innings, 62 more than Babe Ruth.

Jack Curry: you're stupid if you wouldn't vote Mariano Rivera into the Hall of Fame. I guess I'm stupid. Monday, March 12, 2018

If Hall of Fame voters make Mariano Rivera the first ever unanimous selection in 2019 as Jack Curry advocates, that will seal Rivera as the most overrated "player" in at least half a century.

Curry is a former reporter for The New York Times who has worked for the Yankees in recent years as a TV analyst who never noticed a single mistake by Yankee general manager Brian Cashman...

In his 18 "full" seasons the number of times Rivera pitched these innings:
- 80 or more: 2
- 70-79: 8
- 60-69: 7
and another with 46.
So in none of his seasons did Rivera even come close to qualifying for the league lead in Earned Run Average (ERA): 162 innings.
______________________________

Topping out with $15 million per year for these innings (rounded):
2008 71
2009 66
2010 60
2011 61
2012  8

Should Mariano Rivera be elected to the Hall of Fame? Tuesday, July 4, 2017

What? Isn't that a forgone conclusion? Conventional wisdom? Isn't Mariano Rivera the greatest closer in history? ...

Rivera's best Strike Outs per 9 innings (SO9) (10.9) was in 1996 when Rivera was not a closer but the setup man to John Wetland. Rivera also pitched by far his most innings in 1996: 107. His second most innings was 80.66 in 2001 at age 31. His second best SO9 was 9.8 in 2008 at age 38.

Pitchers are part time performers and relief pitchers are part time pitchers, especially the closers. Excluding 2012 when Rivera was injured, in his 18 seasons Rivera pitched these innings these number of times:
>= 100 1 in 1996
90-99 0
80-89 1 in 2001
70-79 8
60-69 7
50-59 0
40-49 1 in 2002 ...


But there's more.

http://retrosheet.org/Research/SmithD/MythOfTheCloser.pdf

The Myth of the Closer
By David W. Smith
Presented July 29, 2016
SABR46, Miami, Florida

Every team spends much effort and money to select its closer, the pitcher who enters in the ninth inning to seal the deal and nail down a win. Of course, this now universal use of a closer only became the norm relatively recently and the reason given is simple: teams feel their chance of winning is increased by having this ace specialist. I decided to look at this assumption more closely and came to a probably startling conclusion: it isn’t true that closers increase the chance for a team to win, or at least it is marginally true at best...


Others have addressed the use of closers: Bill James suggests that using an ace in the 7th inning in a crucial situation may be more important; I agree. Mike Emeigh believes that closers are more important in extra innings. Wayne Towers has a presentation tomorrow afternoon on the possible changing meaning of high save totals.


Conclusions
1. The entry of a new pitcher to start the 9th inning has increased dramatically since 1980.
2. The presence of this new pitcher has had almost no effect on a team’s chances to win.
3. Ace closers bring slightly more wins than other 9th inning pitchers (92% vs 88%)
4. Performance of 9th inning pitchers is almost indistinguishable between closers and others.
5. Increased use 9th inning pitchers correlates with overall increase of relief pitchers.
6. Pitchers have had progressively shorter stints for over 100 years.
7. Current pattern of closer usage is not justified by their contributions to team wins.
________________________________________

Brian Cashman continues his folly.

Aroldis Chapman
Bats: Left  •  Throws: Left
6-4212lb (193cm, 96kg)
Team: New York Yankees (majors)
Born: February 281988 (Age: 30-313d)

After the Cubs overused relief ace Chapman to win the 2016 World Series, Cashman re-signed Chapman as a free agent for $17.2 million for each season 2017-2021. Chapman pitched 50 innings in 2017 and 51 in 2018. His most innings ever: 72 with Cincinnati in 2012.

Now comes word that Cashman has re-signed free agent relief pitcher:

Zach Britton
Bats: Left  •  Throws: Left
6-3195lb (190cm, 88kg)
Born: December 221987 (Age: 31-016d)

Britton will receive $13 million for each season 2019, 2020, 2021.

Britton's most innings pitched: 76 in 2014 with Baltimore.

So, after the closer role has been degraded, Brian Cashman has signed two one inning pitchers who might, if Cashman is lucky, average 70 innings each. That's 140 innings for $30 million for each of the next three seasons.

For perspective, Cashman could have signed free agent starting pitcher Max Scherzer after the 2014 season. Cashman made no effort to sign Scherzer, who had won the AL Cy Young award with Detroit in 2013. Since joining Washington in 2014 Scherzer has won the NL Cy Young award in in 2016 and 2017; second in 2018.

In four seasons with Washington Scherzer has led the NL in innings twice and thrown a total of 878
innings.


For the last three seasons Scherzer has received $22.1 million per season.


For the next three seasons Scherzer will receive $42.1 million per season with a portion deferred until 2028. But even at $42 million, aren't 220 innings a better value than 140 innings at $30 million? $191,000 per inning for Scherzer versus $214,000 per inning for Chapman/Britton? And the Yankees could have already had Scherzer four years at a relative bargain.


Brian Cashman is a moron.

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