Tuesday, February 19, 2019

On what planet is Manny Machado an all time great 25 year old? Planet MLB Network.

MLB Network today during a discussion of free agent Manny Machado signing a ten year $300 million contract with the San Diego Padres featured six players with high WAR (Wins Above Replacement) through age 25. Machado was shown ahead of legendary players. But it's flashed on the screen for only a few seconds and unless you record the program you miss a lot. I recorded.

WAR is a total, so the more you play, the higher your WAR. This alone made the photo display silly. But let's try to recreate the list.

RkPlayerWAR/posFromToAgeGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
26Manny Machado33.82012201819-2592640743720522105021112175513296346691514291085324.282.335.487.822*56BAL-LAD
27Joe DiMaggio33.61936194021-256863116282761397017158168691260147181127173.343.402.6231.025*8/79HNYY
28Barry Bonds33.31986199021-25717300926014686881562611733737756448113172816951.265.358.479.837*78/H9PIT
29Stan Musial32.71941194620-25611265523234398121856452357299441031221343028.350.426.551.978973/8HSTL
30Willie Mays32.51951195620-2561026292314419708102431524122865525910117538324.306.382.584.966*8NYG
31Lou Gehrig31.71923192820-25613263121935047531746211151035828310682627.343.438.6311.069*3/H97NYY

MLB Network did not show data other than WAR. It had photos of the six players above from left to right. And it noted at the bottom that Ty Cobb had the highest WAR all time through age 25 season. The announcer does say that these are the five right behind Manny Machado.

What you tend to overlook are the rank numbers. Machado is only number 26. And obviously the only reason his WAR is higher than the next five is because he played a lot more. Look at PA (plate appearances). Machado has 24% more PA than DiMaggio and is still only .2 WAR higher. In fact these six players are almost exactly in rank order by PA; Gehrig has two more PA than Mays, who spent almost two full seasons (1952-1953) in the Army.

Here is a complete list of 32 players:
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1871 to 2018, Younger than 26, (requiring WAR/pos>=30), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players

RkPlayerWAR/posFromToAgeGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
1Ty Cobb56.01905191218-251021435139197371433230109436912863233710040234.366.414.513.92798/7H4DET
2Mike Trout54.22011201719-259254065339969210402004020156957161874550404716532.306.410.566.976*87/D9HLAA
3Mickey Mantle52.81951195719-2595241143418763108016449207669670576535914265919.316.427.5741.002*89/H6475NYY
4Rogers Hornsby46.91915192119-25858357631845001073165905748629528528708430.337.398.499.897645/3H798STL
5Alex Rodriguez46.41994200118-2595242473758760116722814241730385157474716418015139.311.378.571.949*6/HDSEA-TEX
6Jimmie Foxx45.21925193317-25959394033237371127196662228305564706533136.339.435.6381.073*35/H2967PHA
7Mel Ott44.21926193417-2511364649394979912492244121184662230121532038.316.412.554.966*98/H745NYG
8Ken Griffey Jr.40.31989199519-259173920344057010392011918958542610653018531689243.302.379.536.915*8/DH39SEA
9Arky Vaughan39.41932193720-25849371231645721057166785850146614827553040.334.424.491.915*6/7HPIT
10Eddie Mathews39.01952195720-2588038073206606902147332225865617752271519392915.281.388.556.943*5/H7BSN-MLN
11Tris Speaker38.71907191319-25757325028174959581707635383301195417219628.340.412.492.903*8/H97BOS
12Hank Aaron38.61954195920-258863866352461211372054617961728159315131830107209.323.372.559.931*978/4H5MLN
13Albert Pujols37.62001200521-2579034282954629982227112016214017034444128942915.332.416.6211.037*37/59HD6STL
14Andruw Jones37.61996200219-25981397135205749401882318555937728745396297011440.267.342.491.833*89/H7DATL
15Frank Robinson37.51956196120-25888379032866189941773420257339255491661335898124.302.384.561.946*738/9H5CIN
16Eddie Collins36.91906191219-257133016255645585611157103162901813010925422.335.409.435.844*4/6H9875PHA
17Al Kaline36.11953196018-25105144053919598120018538140612409463361924351027035.306.372.480.851*98/H7DET
18Johnny Bench35.51967197319-259343880344450492215915179616371685538551972422.268.336.479.814*2/93H758CIN
19Mookie Betts35.22014201821-25644292326064787891892111039027419363164233011022.303.370.518.888*98/4HDBOS
20Cesar Cedeno35.11970197619-2597041263735597109722133121523318435062912328431398.294.351.468.819*8/9H73HOU
21Vada Pinson34.91958196419-2596242283899661117721661125530275195221810256713947.302.349.485.833*8/9H7CIN
22Cal Ripken Jr.34.61981198620-25830356232105299271832013347231310417102271111113.289.351.483.834*6/5HDBAL
23Rickey Henderson34.21979198420-257913488291658685012929512715202141620161640493138.291.400.408.808*7/8HD9OAK
24Ted Williams34.21939194220-23586261321045417491543312751549545196124451111.356.481.6421.123*79/H1BOS
25Sherry Magee34.01904191019-25984409535825521062205962855334930153107287.296.367.431.798*7/983HPHI
RkPlayerWAR/posFromToAgeGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
26Manny Machado33.82012201819-2592640743720522105021112175513296346691514291085324.282.335.487.822*56BAL-LAD
27Joe DiMaggio33.61936194021-256863116282761397017158168691260147181127173.343.402.6231.025*8/79HNYY
28Barry Bonds33.31986199021-25717300926014686881562611733737756448113172816951.265.358.479.837*78/H9PIT
29Stan Musial32.71941194620-25611265523234398121856452357299441031221343028.350.426.551.978973/8HSTL
30Willie Mays32.51951195620-2561026292314419708102431524122865525910117538324.306.382.584.966*8NYG
31Lou Gehrig31.71923192820-25613263121935047531746211151035828310682627.343.438.6311.069*3/H97NYY
32Babe Ruth31.11914192019-25533194815683605141183910335934026411242714.328.451.6501.10171/9H83BOS-NYY
Note two young Machado contemporaries ranked higher than Machado but not mentioned at all by MLB Network:
2. Mike Trout 54.2
19. Mookie Betts 35.2

Like Machado, free agent Bryce Harper is also 25 but his WAR is only 27.4.

Here are the top ten of the 32 sorted by PA:
kPlayerWAR/posFromToAgeGPA
ABRH2B3BHRRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
1Mel Ott44.21926193417-2511364649394979912492244121184662230121532038.316.412.554.966*98/H745NYG
2Al Kaline36.11953196018-25105144053919598120018538140612409463361924351027035.306.372.480.851*98/H7DET
3Ty Cobb56.01905191218-251021435139197371433230109436912863233710040234.366.414.513.92798/7H4DET
4Alex Rodriguez46.41994200118-2595242473758760116722814241730385157474716418015139.311.378.571.949*6/HDSEA-TEX
5Vada Pinson34.91958196419-2596242283899661117721661125530275195221810256713947.302.349.485.833*8/9H7CIN
6Cesar Cedeno35.11970197619-2597041263735597109722133121523318435062912328431398.294.351.468.819*8/9H73HOU
7Mickey Mantle52.81951195719-2595241143418763108016449207669670576535914265919.316.427.5741.002*89/H6475NYY
8Sherry Magee34.01904191019-25984409535825521062205962855334930153107287.296.367.431.798*7/983HPHI
9Manny Machado33.82012201819-2592640743720522105021112175513296346691514291085324.282.335.487.822*56BAL-LAD
10Mike Trout54.22011201719-259254065339969210402004020156957161874550404716532.306.410.566.976*87/D9HLAA

Machado has the lowest WAR among these ten players.

So what the heck? Was MLB Network trying to be deceptive? Trying to hype a current player? Trying to hype a story?

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