Tuesday, December 10, 2019

17. Home Run rates: totals, averages, etc. Who qualifies?

695 players were in the study (1920-2019). This post contains summary data and observations. It concludes with determining how many of the 695 players will be considered in final rankings.

AB: At Bats
HR: Home Runs
MLB: Major League Baseball: both American League and National League
Home Run Rate: AB/HR (lower is better)
N: number of MLB teams that season
Top home run hitters: N hitters with the most HR, plus any ties at the bottom
Home Run Rate MLB: for N hitters: total AB / total HR
Home Run Rate hitters: AB/HR
Dif: Home Run Rate hitter - Home Run Rate MLB
PctDif: Dif/Home Run Rate MLB
HR#: rank among N hitters for HR
PctDif#: rank among N hitters for PctDif


PctDifMax: maximum year for an individual year for a player
PctDifMin: minimum year for an individual year for a player
PctDifAve: just that, an unweighted average for a player

Hitters are ranked by relative position: 1, 2, 3, ... Ties would have the same number and then rank number would resume. For example, if four players are tied at third place: 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 7, 8, ...


42 players had at least 10 years which qualified. Here are the 21 with at least 12 years sorted by Years, PctDifAve (Babe Ruth highest of all 695 players: 49.70%):
qryPctDifTotals
FirstN LastN Years Bat YearMin YearMax DifSum PctDifMax PctDifMin PctDifAve PctDif#Ave HR#Ave HRmax HRmin AB/HRmin AB/HRmax Nmax
Mel Ott 17 L 1928 1945 5706.09% 44.31% -22.26% 14.54% 4.82 5.24 42 18 12.98 25.22 16
Hank Aaron 17 R 1955 1973 2684.68% 45.38% -42.89% 8.47% 7.00 5.35 47 27 9.80 22.30 24
Reggie Jackson 16 L 1968 1985 2306.53% 33.03% -12.14% 7.69% 9.13 10.00 47 15 11.68 22.27 26
Willie Mays 16 R 1954 1970 687.87% 39.60% -29.14% 2.61% 9.19 7.81 52 22 10.73 22.09 24
Babe Ruth 15 L 1920 1934 18674.93% 76.34% 11.15% 49.70% 1.47 2.20 60 22 8.46 16.59 16
Barry Bonds 15 L 1990 2007 5593.48% 52.52% -4.30% 24.59% 5.07 9.00 73 28 6.52 15.73 30
Ted Williams 15 L 1939 1960 5223.54% 43.78% -27.82% 17.98% 4.87 7.47 43 23 10.69 24.39 16
Alex Rodriguez 15 R 1996 2015 1325.78% 34.93% -20.40% 5.46% 12.07 11.27 57 30 10.80 17.40 30
Albert Pujols 15 R 2001 2016 381.93% 24.30% -21.73% 1.83% 13.93 9.93 49 28 10.92 22.61 30
Frank Robinson 15 R 1956 1974 191.35% 29.27% -34.26% 0.42% 8.93 8.27 49 22 11.76 21.68 24
Lou Gehrig 14 L 1925 1938 4746.21% 41.00% -24.03% 16.86% 5.14 4.57 49 16 11.82 35.75 16
Jimmie Foxx 13 R 1929 1941 6405.71% 49.99% -25.79% 24.44% 3.92 4.15 58 19 10.09 25.63 16
Mike Schmidt 13 R 1974 1987 5841.09% 42.81% 4.31% 23.47% 3.54 2.92 48 31 11.42 16.64 26
Willie Stargell 13 L 1965 1979 2541.09% 41.14% -11.11% 10.75% 8.54 11.69 48 20 10.65 21.40 26
Rafael Palmeiro 13 L 1991 2003 -1758.10% 18.47% -47.30% -7.68% 16.92 13.23 47 22 12.02 27.64 30
Harmon Killebrew 12 R 1959 1972 4207.82% 35.80% 1.27% 20.77% 3.83 4.33 49 26 11.33 17.86 24
Sammy Sosa 12 R 1993 2004 1590.66% 34.35% -18.46% 9.51% 10.00 8.75 66 25 9.02 18.12 30
Mickey Mantle 12 B 1952 1967 1640.09% 33.22% -24.69% 9.38% 6.42 7.58 54 22 9.52 23.87 20
Eddie Mathews 12 L 1952 1965 606.57% 26.22% -26.16% 2.95% 7.67 6.75 47 25 11.90 21.12 20
Eddie Murray 12 B 1977 1993 -2645.11% 13.96% -41.76% -13.22% 18.58 13.67 33 22 17.18 22.63 28
Stan Musial 12 L 1943 1957 -6156.95% 13.15% -69.58% -23.71% 12.42 10.00 39 13 15.67 47.46 16

Count of the Years for the 695 players:

Years CountOfplayers
17 2
16 2
15 6
14 1
13 4
12 6
11 9
10 12
9 21
8 13
7 23
6 34
5 50
4 53
3 75
2 111
1 273

Clearly those with fewer than three years should not be considered among the top and bottom PctDifAve. That reduces:
695-(111+273)=311

311 still seems like a lot. Here are the top ten of the 75 with exactly 3 qualifying years:
qryPctDifTotals
FirstN LastN Years Bat YearMin YearMax DifSum PctDifMax PctDifMin PctDifAve PctDif#Ave HR#Ave HRmax HRmin AB/HRmin AB/HRmax Nmax
Tillie Walker 3 R 1920 1922 1555.83% 36.49% 3.79% 19.54% 3.33 3.33 37 17 15.27 34.41 16
Chris Carter 3 R 2013 2016 842.68% 28.96% 1.27% 15.53% 6.00 7.67 41 29 13.39 17.45 30
Mark Reynolds 3 R 2009 2011 695.08% 17.49% 10.86% 13.97% 5.00 6.67 44 32 13.14 15.59 30
Bo Jackson 3 R 1988 1990 758.97% 16.29% 9.86% 13.74% 7.00 12.33 32 25 14.46 17.56 26
Gene Tenace 3 R 1974 1976 862.86% 14.82% 12.66% 13.57% 7.33 9.67 29 22 17.17 18.95 24
Chet Laabs 3 R 1942 1946 729.88% 28.25% -20.19% 11.13% 5.33 8.00 27 16 16.50 34.12 16
Pat Seerey 3 R 1944 1946 754.38% 32.43% -18.75% 10.31% 6.33 11.67 26 14 15.54 29.57 16
Carlos Gonzalez 3 L 2010 2015 497.16% 14.90% 1.31% 9.81% 8.33 12.67 40 26 13.85 17.26 30
Jim Gentile 3 L 1961 1964 399.29% 25.43% -7.29% 8.98% 7.33 10.67 46 28 10.57 16.52 20
Steve Balboni 3 R 1984 1986 489.64% 16.46% 4.00% 8.85% 8.33 10.33 36 28 15.64 17.66 26

Exactly 4 qualifying years:
qryPctDifTotals
FirstN LastN Years Bat YearMin YearMax DifSum PctDifMax PctDifMin PctDifAve PctDif#Ave HR#Ave HRmax HRmin AB/HRmin AB/HRmax Nmax
Charlie Keller 4 L 1941 1946 2681.64% 41.81% 18.88% 26.83% 3.75 3.00 33 26 15.36 20.92 16
Kevin Mitchell 4 R 1989 1994 1789.79% 39.03% 13.35% 25.96% 3.00 9.25 47 27 10.33 14.97 28
Rob Deer 4 R 1986 1992 1275.74% 34.54% 5.41% 17.21% 6.75 11.00 33 26 12.28 17.92 26
Khris Davis 4 R 2015 2018 989.83% 24.92% 9.02% 15.68% 5.75 8.25 48 27 12.00 14.52 30
Ted Kluszewski 4 L 1953 1956 949.84% 27.50% 3.76% 14.90% 4.25 4.25 49 35 11.69 14.77 16
Howard Johnson 4 B 1987 1991 499.73% 16.29% -5.87% 6.96% 10.75 8.75 38 24 14.84 20.63 26
David Justice 4 L 1990 2000 422.96% 9.26% 0.36% 6.71% 10.50 11.75 41 28 12.78 15.68 30
Roger Maris 4 L 1958 1962 71.28% 31.74% -26.72% 2.08% 9.25 7.25 61 28 9.67 20.82 20
Mark Trumbo 4 R 2011 2016 13.47% 18.52% -11.31% 0.44% 14.25 11.50 47 29 13.04 18.59 30
Gary Gaetti 4 R 1986 1995 73.02% 14.21% -20.87% 0.09% 13.00 11.25 35 28 14.69 18.84 28

Even Roger Maris is at only PctDifAve 2.08% and below number 10 Gary Gaetti all are negative, so eliminating those with 4 years seems reasonable.

Exactly 5 qualifying years: 19 of 50 have positive PctDifAve; top 10:
qryPctDifTotals
FirstN LastN Years Bat YearMin YearMax DifSum PctDifMax PctDifMin PctDifAve PctDif#Ave HR#Ave HRmax HRmin AB/HRmin AB/HRmax Nmax
Jose Bautista 5 R 2010 2015 1912.67% 39.77% 8.65% 22.00% 5.60 6.40 54 28 10.54 16.14 30
Chris Davis 5 L 2012 2016 1452.87% 37.65% 6.11% 16.92% 7.00 8.60 53 26 11.02 17.31 30
Eric Davis 5 R 1986 1990 1088.68% 28.29% -9.24% 12.02% 7.20 14.00 37 24 12.81 18.88 26
Carlos Pena 5 L 2007 2011 964.74% 35.80% -5.44% 11.83% 9.80 18.00 46 28 10.65 17.61 30
Roy Campanella 5 R 1950 1955 881.14% 21.64% -8.98% 10.89% 6.00 8.00 41 22 12.66 21.27 16
Mickey Tettleton 5 B 1989 1995 829.10% 16.57% -2.36% 9.26% 8.40 12.60 32 26 13.41 16.41 28
J.D. Martinez 5 R 2014 2019 634.41% 35.33% -14.65% 8.04% 12.80 12.80 45 23 9.60 19.17 30
Jim Edmonds 5 L 1995 2005 518.39% 22.37% -12.43% 7.06% 10.60 13.40 42 29 11.46 16.91 30
Tony Armas 5 R 1980 1984 605.31% 20.64% -6.15% 6.46% 9.20 6.20 43 22 14.86 20.00 26
Jack Fournier 5 L 1921 1926 748.93% 23.36% -21.20% 5.68% 6.00 7.60 27 11 20.85 35.88 16

Jose Bautista is number one among players with exactly 5 qualifying years. And among all 183 with at least 5 qualifying years, Bautista is number 7:
qryPctDifTotals
FirstN LastN Years Bat YearMin YearMax DifSum PctDifMax PctDifMin PctDifAve PctDif#Ave HR#Ave HRmax HRmin AB/HRmin AB/HRmax Nmax
Babe Ruth 15 L 1920 1934 18674.93% 76.34% 11.15% 49.70% 1.47 2.20 60 22 8.46 16.59 16
Mark McGwire 10 R 1987 1999 5313.97% 49.17% 11.78% 33.93% 2.10 2.60 70 32 7.27 17.19 30
Ralph Kiner 8 R 1946 1953 3781.31% 45.73% 0.60% 25.58% 2.88 2.38 54 23 10.17 21.83 16
Barry Bonds 15 L 1990 2007 5593.48% 52.52% -4.30% 24.59% 5.07 9.00 73 28 6.52 15.73 30
Jimmie Foxx 13 R 1929 1941 6405.71% 49.99% -25.79% 24.44% 3.92 4.15 58 19 10.09 25.63 16
Mike Schmidt 13 R 1974 1987 5841.09% 42.81% 4.31% 23.47% 3.54 2.92 48 31 11.42 16.64 26
Jose Bautista 5 R 2010 2015 1912.67% 39.77% 8.65% 22.00% 5.60 6.40 54 28 10.54 16.14 30
Hank Greenberg 8 R 1934 1947 3488.50% 48.31% -22.14% 21.72% 3.63 3.75 58 25 9.59 22.81 16
Giancarlo Stanton 6 R 2011 2018 2082.71% 35.25% -1.59% 21.01% 5.17 8.33 59 27 10.12 16.24 30
Harmon Killebrew 12 R 1959 1972 4207.82% 35.80% 1.27% 20.77% 3.83 4.33 49 26 11.33 17.86 24

But 183 seems like too many players. At least:
6 years: 133 players 7 years: 99 players

Seven qualifying years gives 99 players in this 100 year study. Let's go with at least 7 qualifying years. See subsequent posts for results.

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