Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Wins Above Replacement (WAR): somewhere between a mystery and a joke.

TWO 10 WAR teammates same year? Wednesday, June 1, 2022

WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is a total.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

Data is from
stathead.com via baseball-reference.com American League and National League 1903-2021. Click this link to view all the data.

This post uses but does not endorse WAR.

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https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_top_ten.shtml

2022 top ten (players and pitchers) in WAR so far:

1.Manny Machado3.2
2.Mookie Betts3.0
3.Mike Trout3.0
4.Martin Perez2.9
5.Tommy Edman2.8
Paul Goldschmidt2.8
7.Ty France2.7
Pablo Lopez2.7
9.Rafael Devers2.6
10.Nolan Arenado2.6

I had to look up 4, 5 (Edman), 7 (both). Where is Aaron Judge?

Photo of Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

Positions: Designated Hitter and Pitcher

Bats: Left  •  Throws: Right

6-4210lb (193cm, 95kg)

Team: Los Angeles Angels (majors)

Born: July 51994 (Age: 27-331d) in Oshu, Japan jp






2021 top ten (players and pitchers) in WAR:

1.Shohei Ohtani9.0
2.Zack Wheeler7.6
3.Marcus Semien7.3
4.Carlos Correa7.2
5.Juan Soto7.1
6.Vladimir Guerrero Jr.6.8
7.Jose Ramirez6.7
8.Walker Buehler6.6
9.Fernando Tatis Jr.6.6
10.Robbie Ray6.5

I only had to look up 8. He's a pitcher.

Shohei Ohtani was 2021 AL MVP. He is both a designated hitter and a starting pitcher. His WAR is apparently the sum of his player WAR and his pitcher WAR: 4.9 + 4.1 = 9.0.

His player WAR:

oWAR 4.9

dWAR -1.1

You're not supposed to  add them.

His pitcher WAR does not appear to have either oWAR or dWAR. And it's different for relief pitchers.

2021 American League players:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2021-batting-leaders.shtml

WAR:

1.Semien • TOR7.3
2.Correa • HOU7.2
3.Guerrero • TOR6.8
4.Ramirez • CLE6.7
5.Judge • NYY6.0
6.Bichette • TOR5.9
7.Olson • OAK5.8
8.Tucker • HOU5.7
9.Mullins • BAL5.7
10.Perez • KCR5.3

Ohtani with 4.9 oWAR is not in the top ten.

oWAR:

1.Guerrero • TOR6.6
2.Semien • TOR6.0
3.Mullins • BAL5.8
4.Ramirez • CLE5.7
5.Bichette • TOR5.7
6.Lowe • TBR5.7
7.Bogaerts • BOS5.4
8.Correa • HOU5.2
9.Olson • OAK5.2
10.Judge • NYY5.0

dWAR:

1.Correa • HOU2.9
2.Taylor • KCR2.3
3.Simmons • MIN2.3
4.Hernandez • BOS2.1
5.Kiner-Falefa • TEX2.0
6.Fletcher • LAA1.9
7.Semien • TOR1.8
8.Crawford • SEA1.8
9.Merrifield • KCR1.7
10.Kiermaier • TBR1.6

2021 American League pitchers:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2021-standard-pitching.shtml

1.Ray • TOR6.6
2.Cole • NYY5.7
3.Lynn • CHW5.3
4.Rodon • CHW5.1
5.Eovaldi • BOS4.5
6.Giolito • CHW4.2
7.Ohtani • LAA4.1
8.Bassitt • OAK4.0
9.Quantrill • CLE3.9
10.Means • BAL3.7

So, in 2021 Shohei Ohtani was not top ten in player WAR and #7 in pitching WAR. There is no other WAR list for pitchers. Apparently, they are not evaluated on batting, fielding or baserunning.

2021 AL fielding stats are here:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2021-fielding-leaders.shtml

However, WAR is not there.

So, let's swing back to the link from my earlier post:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

baseball-reference WAR Explained

Also:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml

Pitcher WAR Calculations and Details

At its most basic level, our pitching WAR calculation requires only overall Runs Allowed (both earned and unearned) and Innings Pitched.

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So a pitcher who is good at other stuff like fielding, limiting stolen bases, ... has no additional value in WAR.

If you cruise through the WAR explanations, your teeth will hurt.

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