Friday, August 12, 2022

Aaron Judge: where will his 2022 Home Runs rank among 50 homer seasons by HR Rate (AB/HR) percent above league?

Aaron Judge through 112 Yankee games in 2022:

PlayerHRYearAB/HRAB/HR LDifPct DifSO/AB
Aaron Judge4520229.06731.6622.6071.36%29.41%

His "Pct Dif" or HR% above the league rate (AB/HR) of 71.36% would place Judge number 22 among the 47 seasons of at least 50 Home Runs (HR). Much better than his 2017 60.21% for his 52 Home Runs. If Judge reaches 50 HR in 2022, that would be the 10th such Yankee season, by far the most of any team:

YearLTeamFirstLastbatsHR%HRratePlayHRrate_LHRABLname
11920ALNYABabeRuthL92.56%8.46113.78354457Ruth
21927ALNYABabeRuthL90.62%9.0095.93960540Ruth
31921ALNYABabeRuthL89.81%9.1589.78859540Ruth
41928ALNYABabeRuthL88.62%9.9387.19954536Ruth
161956ALNYAMickeyMantleB73.77%10.2539.07652533Mantle
181961ALNYAMickeyMantleB73.41%9.5235.79154514Mantle
191961ALNYARogerMarisL72.98%9.6735.79161590Maris
2022ALNYAAaronJudgeR71.36%9.0731.66245408Judge
272007ALNYAAlexRodriguezR68.95%10.8034.76654583Rodriguez
432017ALNYAAaronJudgeR60.21%10.4226.19452542Judge

The full list is below. Judge's HR rate is not likely to change much, so he will likely remain number 8 among the Yankee seasons.

Stop staring at Batting Average and Home Runs. Look at their percentage above the league. Sunday, January 30, 2022

We baseball fans are simple. That's a euphemism for stupid. We stare at numbers and marvel at them even when they are completely lacking context. The two traditional stats stared at the most are:

Batting Average: Hits divided by At Bats (AB).

Home Runs: uh, that's it. Just a total. Not even a simple average or rate like AB divided by HR to get the common sense stat of the average number of AB to hit a homer. Some may prefer using Plate Appearances (PA), which is mostly AB + Bases on Balls (BB) also known as Walks. The idea is the same.

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50 Home Runs: Home Run Rate (AB/HR) percentages above the league. Babe Ruth #1. Pete Alonso dead last.
Monday, February 14, 2022

What, you were expecting Giancarlo Stanton? His 59 HR in 2017 rank number 40 in HR% among the 46 seasons of at least 50 HR.

In 1920 the American League (AL) hit 369 Home Runs. Babe Ruth hit 54 of them. That's 14.6%. Ruth out homered every other team in both 1920 and 1927. If each batter's HR and AB had been subtracted from the league numbers as had been done in other HR rate posts here, Ruth's prodigious HR% would have been even higher...

HR% is the percentage that a player's Home Run rate (AB/HR; lower is better) is above the league Home Run rate that season...

In 2017 New York Yankee Aaron Judge set the rookie record for HR with 52. In 2019 New York Met rookie Pete Alonso broke that record with 53 HR. But even though Judge had HR% of only 60.21% (43 out the 46), Alonso was dead last with by far the lowest HR%: 55.29%.

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YearLTeamFirstLastbatsHR%HRratePlayHRrate_LHRABLname
11920ALNYABabeRuthL92.56%8.46113.78354457Ruth
21927ALNYABabeRuthL90.62%9.0095.93960540Ruth
31921ALNYABabeRuthL89.81%9.1589.78859540Ruth
41928ALNYABabeRuthL88.62%9.9387.19954536Ruth
51932ALPHAJimmieFoxxR83.58%10.0961.42958585Foxx
61938ALDETHankGreenbergR80.51%9.5949.19058556Greenberg
71998NLSLNMarkMcGwireR78.97%7.2734.58170509McGwire
81930NLCHNHackWilsonR78.67%10.4548.98356585Wilson
92001NLSFNBarryBondsL78.15%6.5229.84473476Bonds
101949NLPITRalphKinerR77.74%10.1745.68054549Kiner
111938ALBOSJimmieFoxxR77.03%11.3049.19050565Foxx
121947NLPITRalphKinerR76.87%11.0847.89451565Kiner
131947NLNY1JohnnyMizeL76.01%11.4947.89451586Mize
141965NLSFNWillieMaysR74.46%10.7342.01652558Mays
151999NLSLNMarkMcGwireR73.95%8.0230.76865521McGwire
161956ALNYAMickeyMantleB73.77%10.2539.07652533Mantle
171990ALDETCecilFielderR73.73%11.2442.76251573Fielder
181961ALNYAMickeyMantleB73.41%9.5235.79154514Mantle
191961ALNYARogerMarisL72.98%9.6735.79161590Maris
201998NLCHNSammySosaR71.83%9.7434.58166643Sosa
211996ALOAKMarkMcGwireR71.80%8.1328.84452423McGwire
2022ALNYAAaronJudgeR71.36%9.0731.66245408Judge
221977NLCINGeorgeFosterR71.08%11.8340.89552615Foster
232002ALCLEJimThomeL70.76%9.2331.57052480Thome
241997MarkMcGwireR70.73%9.6332.90958540McGwire
252010ALTORJoseBautistaR69.95%10.5435.06954569Bautista
262001NLCHNSammySosaR69.79%9.0229.84464577Sosa
272007ALNYAAlexRodriguezR68.95%10.8034.76654583Rodriguez
282006NLPHIRyanHowardL67.98%10.0231.28358581Howard
291999NLCHNSammySosaR67.76%9.9230.76863625Sosa
302013ALBALChrisDavisL66.91%11.0233.29953584Davis
311998NLSDNGregVaughnR66.86%11.4634.58150573Vaughn
322006ALBOSDavidOrtizL66.48%10.3330.83254558Ortiz
332005NLATLAndruwJonesR66.36%11.4934.15551586Jones
341995ALCLEAlbertBelleR66.01%10.9232.12750546Belle
351997ALSEAKenGriffeyL65.63%10.8631.58556608Griffey
361955NLNY1WillieMaysR65.62%11.3733.07451580Mays
372007NLMILPrinceFielderL65.36%11.4633.08350573Fielder
382002ALTEXAlexRodriguezR65.32%10.9531.57057624Rodriguez
392001NLARILuisGonzalezL64.20%10.6829.84457609Gonzalez
402017NLMIAGiancarloStantonR64.02%10.1228.12059597Stanton
411998ALSEAKenGriffeyL63.98%11.3031.37956633Griffey
422001ALTEXAlexRodriguezR61.02%12.1531.17952632Rodriguez
432017ALNYAAaronJudgeR60.21%10.4226.19452542Judge
441996ALBALBradyAndersonL59.85%11.5828.84450579Anderson
452000NLCHNSammySosaR59.09%12.0829.53250604Sosa
462019NLNYNPeteAlonsoR55.29%11.2625.19553597Alonso
YearLTeamFirstLastbatsHR%HRratePlayHRrate_LHRABLname
2019Maximum92.56%12.15113.78373643
1920Minimum55.29%6.5225.19550423

Aaron Judge 75% to season home run record for Yankees and American League. How does he compare to other Yankees? Thursday, August 11, 2022

Yesterday Aaron Judge hit season home run 45 in Yankee game 112 (71-41).

To hit 61 home runs in 162 games: 162/61=2.66

To be on pace through 112 games Judge should homer every 2.66 games: 42 home runs through 112 team games. So Judge is ahead of pace.

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Aaron Judge has played the field in only 76% of Yankee games in 2022, his walk year. Ohtani Lite? Sunday, August 7, 2022

Aaron Judge has not started 8 of 107 Yankee games in 2022: 7.5%. Roger Maris: 1.8% in 1961 when Yanks played 22 doubleheaders. Saturday, August 6, 2022

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