Yesterday Aaron Judge hit season home run 45 in Yankee game 112 (71-41).
To hit 61 home runs in 162 games: 162/61=2.66
To be on pace through 112 games Judge should homer every 2.66 games: 42 home runs through 112 team games. So Judge is ahead of pace.
But baseball does not use logic. Judge is pitted against when Roger Maris hit a home run in 1961, just like Maris was pitted against when Babe Ruth hit a home run in 1927 despite the fact that it was well known that the Babe hit 17 home runs in September to reach 60 in the 154 game schedule played through 1960.
Judge should be made aware that Maris hit number 51 August 26, 1961: Yankee game 128 (85-43). So Maris was well ahead of the Babe entering the final month but failed to reach 60 in 154 games when he had 59. Beware the ghost of the Bambino.
Aaron Judge has not started 8 of 107 Yankee games in 2022: 7.5%. Roger Maris: 1.8% in 1961 when Yanks played 22 doubleheaders. Saturday, August 6, 2022
Judge also has started 18 games as DH: 17% of all Yankee games...
Judge has a chance to break the American League and Yankee season home run record of 61 set in 1961 by Roger Maris.
So, it's especially odd that Judge would not start in 7.5% of his team's games. How much did Maris sit in 1961?
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Stop staring at Batting Average and Home Runs. Look at their percentage above the league. Sunday, January 30, 2022
We baseball fans are simple. That's a euphemism for stupid. We stare at numbers and marvel at them even when they are completely lacking context. The two traditional stats stared at the most are:
Batting Average: Hits divided by At Bats (AB).
Home Runs: uh, that's it. Just a total. Not even a simple average or rate like AB divided by HR to get the common sense stat of the average number of AB to hit a homer. Some may prefer using Plate Appearances (PA), which is mostly AB + Bases on Balls (BB) also known as Walks. The idea is the same.
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That will be addressed in a future post. This one deals with Judge v. Maris ... and other Yankee 50 home run hitters. So, how many games did it take for Maris to reach 45 home runs? Maris was not the first to 45 in 1961. Teammate Mickey Mantle was.
Maris hit #45 in game two of the doubleheader, which the Yanks won 9-4.
HR: Roger Maris (45, off Marty Kutyna, 1st inn, 1 on, 1 out to Deep RF)
That was Yankee game 118 (77-39). Mantle hit #45 in Yankee game 117, five more than Judge.
In the original home run race, Ruth and Yankee teammate Lou Gehrig were also tied at 45.
Tuesday, September 6, 1927 Yankee game 129 (92-37)
HR:
Lou Gehrig (45, off Tony Welzer, 5th inn, 0 on, 1 out to Deep RF); Babe Ruth 2 (46, 2 off Tony Welzer, 6th inn, 2 on, 0 outs to Deep CF; 7th inn, 1 on, 1 out to Deep RF).
They entered the game tied at 44. Gehrig took the lead but Ruth answered in each of the next two innings to go ahead 46-45. Gehrig hit only two more home runs in 1927.
What about the other Yankee 50 home run seasons?
Saturday, September 4, 1920 Yankee game 131 (80-51)
HR: Babe Ruth (45, off Sad Sam Jones, 3rd inn, 0 on, 1 out to RF)
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Wednesday, August 17, 1921 Yankee game 107 (67-40)
HR: Babe Ruth (45, off Jack Wieneke, 6th inn, 1 on, 0 outs to CF)
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Wednesday, August 15, 1928 Yankee game 114 (77-37)
HR: Babe Ruth (45, off Red Faber, 4th inn, 0 on, 2 outs to RF)
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Tuesday, August 28, 1956 Yankee game 127 (81-46)
HR: Mickey Mantle (45, off Art Ditmar, 3rd inn, 2 on, 1 out to CF)
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Saturday, September 1, 2007 Yankee game 136 (76-60)
HR: Alex Rodriguez (45, off Edwin Jackson, 1st inn, 1 on, 2 outs to LF)
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Wednesday, September 20, 2017 Yankee game 152 (85-67)
HR: Aaron Judge (45, off Bartolo Colon, 3rd inn, 1 on, 1 out to CF-RF)
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