Saturday, November 25, 2023

Why did Yankees drop from 99 to 82 wins in 2023?

No,  it wasn't manager Aaron Boone. In Boone's five full seasons the Yankees won 100, 103, 92, 99, 82 games and made the playoffs in all but 2023. Remember Arizona?

2023 World Series teams: lowest regular season Win Total & Win% of any WS pairs. Friday, November 3, 2023

2023 WS:

Arizona 84-78  .5185

Texas 90-72  .5556

Combined Totals: 174-150  .537    fewest wins, most losses, lowest winning average (not percent)

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Payroll/Wins: Braves & Yankees. Yanks pay 96% more per win in 2023. Thursday, August 17, 2023

Five Yankees get paid more than Matt Olson in 2023:

Aaron Judge: $40,000,000  through 2031 (age 39)

Gerrit Cole: $36,000,000  through 2028 (age 37)

Giancarlo Stanton: $32,000,000  through 2025 (age 35); then $29M, $25M, $10M buyout.

Carlos Rodon: $23,000,000; then $28M through 2028 (age 35)

Josh Donaldson: $22 million; $8M buyout in 2024 (age 38)

3 Yankees = 40% of payroll in 2023. Does Hal Steinbrenner even know? Saturday, August 12, 2023

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https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2022.shtml

Record: 99-63-0, Finished 1st in AL_East

Pythagorean W-L: 106-56, 807 Runs, 567 Runs Allowed

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2023.shtml

Record: 82-80-0, 4th place in AL_East

Pythagorean W-L: 78-84, 673 Runs, 698 Runs Allowed

So based on the number of runs scored and runs allowed, instead of dropping from 99 to 82 (17) wins the Yankees should have dropped from 106 to 78 (28).

Batting:

In 2022 the Yankees had four batters with OPS+ >= 100: Judge (62 home runs, AL MVP), Rizzo, Stanton and Torres. Plus, LeMahieu.

2022 Yanks also included Matt Carpenter for 154 PA and 216 OPS+.

In 2023 the Yankees had two batters with OPS+ >= 100: Judge (missed 60 games) and Torres.

In 2023 rookie Anthony Volpe replaced Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop and Volpe won an America League (AL) Gold Glove award. However, OPS+ went from IKF 84 to Volpe 81. Volpe had 167 SO. 167.

Rookie OPS+ for SO greater than 149 includes Yankees Judge and Volpe. Thursday, November 9, 2023

Yankee shortstop Anthony Volpe just won the American League Gold Glove award as the best fielding shortstop.

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2022PosNameAgeGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
2022CJose Trevino29115353335398312111431562.248.283.388.67189
20221BAnthony Rizzo*3213054846577104211327558101.224.338.480.817130
20222BGleyber Torres2514057252673135281247639129.257.310.451.761113
2022SSIsiah Kiner-Falefa27142531483661262004483572.261.314.327.64284
20223BJosh Donaldson3613254647859106280156254148.222.308.374.68293
2022LFAaron Hicks#3213045338454839284062109.216.330.313.64285
2022CFAaron Judge3015769657013317728062131111175.311.425.6861.111210
2022RFJoey Gallo*2882273233323741122440106.159.282.339.62176
2022DHGiancarlo Stanton32110452398538470317850137.211.297.462.759112
2022PosNameAgeGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
2022IFDJ LeMahieu331255414677412218012466771.261.357.377.734110
2023PosNameAgeGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
2023CKyle Higashioka3392260242245713010341474.236.274.413.68785
20231BAnthony Rizzo*3399421373459114012413597.244.328.378.70694
20232BGleyber Torres261586725969016328225686798.273.347.453.800118
2023SSAnthony Volpe2215960154162113234216052167.209.283.383.66681
20233BDJ LeMahieu3413656249755121223154460125.243.327.390.71896
2023LFOswaldo Cabrera#2411533029835631105292572.211.275.299.57458
2023CFHarrison Bader298431028840691127371456.240.278.365.64375
2023RFAaron Judge311064583677998160377588130.267.406.6131.019175
2023DHGiancarlo Stanton331014153714371130246041124.191.275.420.69587
2023PosNameAgeGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
2023UTIsiah Kiner-Falefa2811336132639791216372870.242.306.340.64678

Starting Pitching:

In 2023 Gerrit Cole won the AL Cy Young award as best pitcher.

Lefty Jordan Montgomery: August 2, 2022: Traded by the New York Yankees to the St. Louis Cardinals for Harrison Bader.

July 30, 2023: Traded by the St. Louis Cardinals with Chris Stratton to the Texas Rangers for Tekoah Roby (minors), Thomas Saggese (minors) and John King.

Montgomery did well, including in the 2023 tournament for WS winner Texas.

November 2, 2023: Granted Free Agency.

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Jameson Taillon: November 6, 2022: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 2022: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago Cubs.

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Neither Montgomery nor Taillon were anything special in 2022 for the Yankees.

Lefty Nestor Cortez had a career year in 2022 then mostly disappeared in 2023. Innings dropped from 158 to 63.

Lefty Carlos Rodon: December 21, 2022: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.

Six year contract through age 35 season. In millions: $23 in 2023 then $28 for each of the remaining five years.

Rodon has been a disaster and essentially replaced Domingo German at the bottom of the  rotation.

German pitched a no-hitter in 2023, then unraveled: November 6, 2023: Granted Free Agency.

2022NameAgeWLW-L%ERAERA+GGSGFCGSHOIPHRERHRBBSO
2022Gerrit Cole311380.6193.50112333300020015481783350257
2022Jameson Taillon301450.7373.91101323200017716878772632151
2022Nestor Cortes*271240.7502.44161282801115810844431638163
2022Jordan Montgomery*29330.5003.6910721210001141034847152397
2022Luis Severino28730.7003.1812419190001027237361430112
2022Domingo Germán29250.2863.61109151400072653129111958
2022NameAgeWLW-L%ERAERA+GGSGFCGSHOIPHRERHRBBSO
2023NameAgeWLW-L%ERAERA+GGSGFCGSHOIPHRERHRBBSO
2023Gerrit Cole321540.7892.63165333302220915764612048222
2023Clarke Schmidt27990.5004.6493333210015916991822446149
2023Domingo Germán30570.4174.569520191111088361552034114
2023Jhony Brito25970.5634.28101251310090824743142872
2023Luis Severino29480.3336.65651918000891137366233479
2023Carlos Rodón*30380.2736.8563141400064655149152864
2023NameAgeWLW-L%ERAERA+GGSGFCGSHOIPHRERHRBBSO

The Yankees went from four competent starters to one, the best in the league. But Gerrit Cole accounted for only about 14.4% of the Yankees 2023 innings: 209/1,439. And Cole pitched in only 20% of the games: 33/162.

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