Thursday, January 3, 2013

Home Run Proficiency 35 Home Runs.

Data through 2011.

Thursday, December 13, 2012
Home Run Proficiency relative to League.

(P-(L-P))/((L-P)
In this equation each letter represents (HR/AB) for either the player or the league minus the player.  The result is the number of times the player's HR rate is better than all the other batters in that league that season.
______________________________

Read that post for the method and background.  The original criteria: HR >= 35 and (AB/HR) < 12.  That produced 116 seasons.  Removing (AB/HR) < 12  produced 605 seasons.

In the data provided the column X represents the equation described above.  Click link to view the data.

50 HR:

50 HR have been hit 42 times.  Ruth has the top four X ratings, including three in which his HR hitting was ten times more proficient that all the other batters in his league that season.

14 of 42 X >3;

10 of 42 X < 2

Those who set and held the season HR record at the end of a season:
Babe Ruth 1920 14.5782 1
Babe Ruth 1927 11.1891 2
Babe Ruth 1921 10.0537 3

Mark McGwire 1998 3.8611 8
Barry Bonds 2001 3.6676 10
Roger Maris 1961 2.8123 19

Lowest:
Brady Anderson 1996 1.5185 50
Sammy Sosa 2000 1.4691 50
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35 HR

16 of 605 X >5
29 of 605 X >4
69 of 605 X >3
198 of 605 X >2
551 of 605 X >1

Lowest:
Garret Anderson 2000 0.5884
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35 HR after 1994

285 of 605 35 HR seasons occurred after 1994.  47%.

3 of 285 X >3:
McGwire 1998 3.8610
Bonds 2001 3.6676
McGwire 1995 3.0066

53 of 285 X < 1
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35 HR before 1994

320 of 605 35 HR seasons occurred before 1994.  53%.

66 of 320 X >3

Only one batter had X less than 1:
Don Mattingly 1985 0.919
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35 HR 1946-1994

258 of 605 35 HR seasons occurred between 1946 through 1994.  43%.

18 of 258 X >3

Top ten:

qryBattingHRratePL
First Last Year X
Hank Greenberg 1946 4.76283723748615
Ted Williams 1946 4.01581727879536
Mike Schmidt 1980 3.81744495006566
Dave Kingman 1976 3.74012987624112
Ralph Kiner 1949 3.70724400364712
Hank Aaron 1971 3.6625049291716
Willie Stargell 1971 3.61494895911289
Ralph Kiner 1947 3.52613851942133
Hank Aaron 1973 3.43945127719962
Willie McCovey 1968 3.37878635403039

Hank Aaron has ranks 6 and 9 at ages 37 and 39.

Roger Maris is number 29 of 258: 2.8 more proficient than all other AL batters in 1961 when Maris set the home run record with 61.
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35 HR before 1946

62 of 605 35 HR seasons occurred before 1946.  10.2%.

48 of 62 X >3.

Only one below 2:
Babe Herman 1930 1.866

Top ten:

qryBattingHRratePL
First Last Year X
Babe Ruth 1920 14.5782432010003
Babe Ruth 1927 11.1890941072999
Babe Ruth 1921 10.053743576112
Babe Ruth 1926 9.39331779331779
Babe Ruth 1924 9.34336677814939
Babe Ruth 1928 8.76487318651498
Lou Gehrig 1927 7.52692112804026
Babe Ruth 1923 7.13763484010281
Babe Ruth 1922 6.36717100633357
Babe Ruth 1931 6.01100982262738

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Home Run Proficiency: Aaron, Johnson, Evans 1973.


Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Those 1973 Atlanta Braves: was there something in the water?

Read that post then continue.

Click this link to view new Home Run Proficiency data and Graph on Hank Aaron, Davey Johnson and Darrell Evans.

In 1973 here were their ranks among batters from both leagues:
Aaron 1
Johnson 5
Evans 7

Aaron at age 39 had his second most proficient home run hitting season: 3.4 times more proficient than all other NL batters in 1973.  His best: 3.7 times more proficient in 1971 at age 37.

Johnson was 2.3 times more proficient than all other NL batters in 1973. Second best: .7 in 1974.

Evans was twice as proficient as all other NL batters in 1973.  Second best: 1.8 in 1985.

Home Run Proficiency 1961: a bad year for the Babe.

Rk Player HR Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Roger Maris 61 1961 26 NYY AL 161 698 590 132 159 16 4 141 94 0 67 7 0 7 16 0 0 .269 .372 .620 .993 *98
2 Mickey Mantle 54 1961 29 NYY AL 153 646 514 131 163 16 6 128 126 9 112 0 1 5 2 12 1 .317 .448 .687 1.135 *8
3 Harmon Killebrew 46 1961 25 MIN AL 150 656 541 94 156 20 7 122 107 6 109 3 0 5 11 1 2 .288 .405 .606 1.012 *35/7
4 Orlando Cepeda 46 1961 23 SFG NL 152 637 585 105 182 28 4 142 39 11 91 9 0 3 21 12 8 .311 .362 .609 .970 *379
5 Jim Gentile 46 1961 27 BAL AL 148 601 486 96 147 25 2 141 96 5 106 11 0 8 12 1 1 .302 .423 .646 1.069 *3
6 Rocky Colavito 45 1961 27 DET AL 163 708 583 129 169 30 2 140 113 2 75 2 2 8 14 1 2 .290 .402 .580 .982 *79
7 Norm Cash 41 1961 26 DET AL 159 673 535 119 193 22 8 132 124 19 85 9 2 2 16 11 5 .361 .487 .662 1.148 *3
8 Willie Mays 40 1961 30 SFG NL 154 659 572 129 176 32 3 123 81 15 77 2 0 4 14 18 9 .308 .393 .584 .977 *8
9 Frank Robinson 37 1961 25 CIN NL 153 635 545 117 176 32 7 124 71 23 64 10 0 10 15 22 3 .323 .404 .611 1.015 *97/85
10 Joe Adcock 35 1961 33 MLN NL 152 629 562 77 160 20 0 108 59 4 94 2 4 2 22 2 1 .285 .354 .507 .861 *3
11 Dick Stuart 35 1961 28 PIT NL 138 576 532 83 160 28 8 117 34 1 121 4 1 5 22 0 3 .301 .344 .581 .925 *3/7
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/1/2013.

Eleven batters hit at least 35 home runs (HR) in 1961, eight hit at least 40.  Of those eight, six played the new 162 game schedule in the American League (AL) and two, both Giants, played the final 154 game schedule in the National League (NL).  This post will concentrate on the AL HR hitters but the others are included for context.  See these posts for some background.

Monday, December 10, 2012
40 HR per year: batter count / team count.

It contains a count of the number of batters who hit at least 40 home runs (HR) in a season and the number of American and National teams in that season.  The number of players is divided by the number of teams and represented as a percentage: the count of 40 HR batters relative to the number of teams...

A record was set in 1961 (44%) that was not broken until the current record was set in 1996 (61%).  The 1961 number was also exceeded in these seasons: 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000.  2001 was close: 40%.
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Thursday, December 13, 2012
Home Run Proficiency relative to League.

Criteria: HR >= 35 and (AB/HR) < 12.  That produced 116 seasons...

(P-(L-P))/((L-P)
In this equation each letter represents (HR/AB) for either the player or the league minus the player.  The result is the number of times the player's HR rate is better than all the other batters in that league that season.
_______________________________

Click this link to see Home Run Proficiency data and graph.

Among the HR leaders only Mantle, Maris, Gentile and Killebrew, in that order, met the AB/HR < 12 criteria.  Here are all eleven with their 1961 HR proficiency rating.  Mantle and Maris were each about 2.8 times more proficient than all the other batters in 1961.

Name X
Mantle 2.8609
Maris 2.8123
Gentile 2.4615
Killebrew 2.1064
Cepeda 1.8405
Colavito 1.8159
Cash 1.7908
Mays 1.5139
Robinson 1.4358
Stuart 1.3571
Adcock 1.2297

Among those hitting 40 HR only Killebrew and Mays did not have career highs.  Mays exceeded 40 HR multiple times before and after 1961, including 51 in 1955 and 52 in 1965.  Killebrew exceeded 46 three times later in his career.

1961 was the only season in which these players reached 40 HR: Maris, Gentile, Cash and Cepeda.  Gentile, Cash and Cepeda reached their second highest in 1962: 33, 39 and 35 respectively.  Maris had hit 39 in 1960.

Gentile led the AL with 141 RBI.  Cash had 132 RBI.  1961 was the only 100 RBI season for each.

Cash led AL in batting average: .361.  Second highest: 1960 .286.

Colavito had tied Killebrew for most HR in 1959 with 42 and finished second to Mantle in 1958 with 41.  Six times he had at least 100 RBI but his 140 in 1961 was his best by 27.

However, only three of the eight, including Maris, had their best HR proficiency in 1961.  Here are their best such seasons and where 1961 ranks in their careers.

1961 rank
Mantle 1956 2.9553 2
Cash 1971 2.1297 3
Cepeda 1961 1.8405 1
Colavito 1958 2.3996 3
Gentile 1961 2.4615 1
Killebrew 1967 2.7416 6
Maris 1961 2.8123 1
Mays 1965 3.0352 9

1961 was a good year for home run hitting, especially for Roger Maris who broke the single season home run record of 60 set by Babe Ruth in 1927.  In the World Series that year Yankee southpaw Whitey Ford also broke Ruth's record for consecutive shutout innings pitched in the World Series.  Ford's response when this was mentioned to him: "It was a bad year for the Babe".