Friday, May 24, 2013

Pujols and Clemente: .400 BA had they switch hit?

Albert Pujols: 2008 .405 batting average (BA); 524 at bats (AB)
Roberto Clemente: 1964 .401 BA; 622 AB

Click link to view detailed data.

That's if they join Mickey Mantle and Buster Posey in the Twilight Zone (TZ).  For Mantle TZ is imagining what he might have done if they had batted right handed exclusively and not switch hit.  For Pujols and Clemente TZ is imaging what they might have done had they switch hit.

In previous posts I've projected these BA based on the MLB percent differences in BA between righty batters against lefty pitchers and righty batters against righty pitchers:
- Mantle .411 in 1957
- Mantle .419 in 1964

For the post on Posey (.428 in 2012) I went back and did the calculations on the other righty batters with a BA of at least .400 against lefty pitchers and at least 150 AB.  It turns out that neither Elston Howard (.412) nor Mariano Duncan (.399) had enough PA to qualify.

Kirby Puckett 1991 .399 BA; 611 AB; real splits: .406/.289 for .319.

Clemente led NL in BA in 1964 but his real splits were huge: .409/.309 for .339.

Pujols real 2008 splits .411/.333 for .357.

Mantle's TZ projections seem most solid:
- two seasons that reflect career trends
- Posey has qualified with at least 502 PA only once
- Pujols and Clemente are much more subject to a margin of error, especially Clemente's .401.

Pujols is at least 33 years old and learning to bat lefty is out of the question.  However, Posey could learn batting lefty against righty pitchers.  His 2012 splits suggest that he should give that serious consideration.  So far in 2013 Posey's splits are much more neutral:
BA OBP SLG OPS
.313 .409 .504 .913 vs RHP as RHB
.310 .388 .548 .935 vs LHP as RHB

Go figure.

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