Clayton Kershaw was not valuable in 83% of games.

Clayton Kershaw was voted 2014 National Conference Most Valuable Player (MVP) by the writers, who seem to be trying to absolve themselves for stiffing Mike Trout in each of the two previous seasons when they voted Miguel Cabrera American Conference MVP.  Yesterday Trout finally received an MVP award.  But the writers were determined to display a newfound awareness of modern analytics, even if it flew in the face of common sense.  Maybe, especially because it made so little sense.  That would make the writers seem even more clever.  Argh!

Rank	Name	Tm	Vote Pts	1st Place	Share	WAR	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	W	L	ERA	WHIP	G	GS	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	355.0	18.0	85%	8.0	27	63	5	11	0	3	1	4	.175	.235	.206	.442	21	3	1.77	0.857	27	27	0	198.1	139	9	31	239
2	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	298.0	8.0	71%	6.5	145	539	89	155	37	105	13	94	.288	.395	.555	.950
3	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	271.0	4.0	65%	6.4	146	548	89	172	25	83	18	84	.314	.410	.542	.952
4	Jonathan Lucroy	MIL	167.0	0.0	40%	6.7	153	585	73	176	13	69	4	66	.301	.373	.465	.837
5	Anthony Rendon	WSN	155.0	0.0	37%	6.5	153	613	111	176	21	83	17	58	.287	.351	.473	.824
6	Buster Posey	SFG	152.0	0.0	36%	5.2	147	547	72	170	22	89	0	47	.311	.364	.490	.854

Notice the Wins Above Replacement (players) WAR for the top three.  But not reflected in that for a pitcher is the pitcher's batting.  Their OPS (On Base Plus Slugging averages):
Kershaw .442
Stanton .950
McCutchen .952

Nor are fielding or base running considered for a pitcher.

Case against Kershaw for MVP: 198 innings.  Monday, November 10, 2014

If a pitcher throws in 200 innings he appears in about 14% of his team's innings. A modern iron man throwing about 300 innings would be in about 20%. You may think that the pitcher is doing much more than players at other positions. If the pitcher is striking out most of the batters that he faces, I might agree. However, those other players are retiring the batters who hit the ball. Why should the pitcher get credit for retiring all those batters who do not strike out?

4,374 (1,458 innings * 3 outs) are retired in 162 nine inning games. Let's ignore minor anomalies like the bottom of the ninth when the home team leads and extra innings. If a pitcher strikes out 200 batters he is retiring 4.5%. 300 strike outs: 6.85%...

Kershaw was 21-3, 239 SO.  For those who want to kill the win consider Roy Face 1959: 18-1, 93 innings, all in relief...

Kershaw gets a break in that the other two finalists also missed time in 2014 after being hit by pitch:
- Giancarlo Stanton: 145 games, 638 plate appearances
- Andrew McCutchen: 146 games, 648 plate appearances
- Clayton Kershaw: 27 games, 198 innings pitched.

What the heck?  You can play WAR games all you want but it doesn't make sense.
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MVP pitchers: more on the case against Kershaw.  Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Pitchers are part time players.  Relievers are part time pitchers.  Pitchers, especially relievers, should not be MVP...

Kershaw pitched in only 27 of his team's 162 games: 16.66%.  The Dodgers played 135 games without Kershaw.  So, how valuable could Kershaw have possibly been when he did nothing in 83% of the games?  NOTHING...

MVP pitchers through 2013: ...

most innings 336 Denny McLain 1968
fewest innings 251 Justin Verlander 2011 ...

The fewest innings by a starter (251) through 2013 is 27% more than the 198 Kershaw had in 2014.
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I've also noticed that the "kill the win" movement stopped moving for this vote.  Kershaw won 21 and lost 3.  The fact that his Dodger team had a much lower winning percentage in non-Kershaw games is used as the primary revelation as to his value.  But isn't that true about any pitcher with a gaudy won-loss record?  The pitcher MVP in the Cy Young award era, i.e., since 1956:

Justin Verlander 2011 24-5
Roger Clemens 1986 24-4
Vida Blue 1971 24-8
Bob Gibson 1968 22-9
Denny McLain 1968 31-6
Sandy Koufax 1963 25-5
Don Newcombe 1956 27-7

(And don't forget about non award winner Roy Face 1959: 18-1, 93 innings, all in relief.)

Hey, what happened to Gibson?  Nine losses with that puny 1.12 ERA?  His Cardinals were shutout a few times when he pitched.  That could have happened to Kershaw, too, but it didn't.  If the Dodgers were shut out in some of Kershaw's games and his won-loss record was less gaudy, would Kershaw have been less valuable?  Or would that simply have influenced the writers?

Notice that Newcombe won as many games as Kershaw appeared in and McLain won four more.

But didn't Kershaw have a season for the ages?  Kershaw had very good numbers in averages, including ERA.  But don't averages tend be better the less you play?  Could Kershaw have sustained that had he not missed the entire month of April?  And would the writers have voted for Kershaw had he missed September instead of April?  Stanton missed September.  Suppose Stanton had missed April instead?  Would Stanton have been voted MVP.  In other words, if you reverse the months missed for Kershaw and Stanton, would that have changed the outcome?  If it's even a possibility, then the actual result is bogus on that basis alone.

Kershaw pitched and won the Dodgers first game of 2014:

Saturday, March 22, 2014, 4:00 am, Sydney Cricket Grounds, Australia
Attendance: 38,266, Time of Game: 2:49
Dodgers 3, Diamondbacks 1

Kershaw pitched 6.66 innings and was helped by three relief pitchers.  However, Kershaw did not pitch again until May 6 in Washington, DC: Kershaw won again: 7 innings, no runs, again helped by three relief pitchers.  In between the Dodgers went 17-15.

Paul Maholm appears to be a pitcher who started some games in place of Kershaw.

Rk	Gcar	Gtm	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	RE24	Entered	Exited
1	244	2	Mar 23	LAD	@	ARI	W,7-5	9-9		99	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0		1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.44	0.011	0.27	9b 1-- 1 out a4	9b 1-- 2 out a4
2	245	7	Apr 5	LAD		SFG	L,2-7	GS-5	L(0-1)	12	4.1	7	5	5	2	1	2	0	9.64	21	80	47	10	3	9	9	4	1	0	28			0	0	0	19	1	0	0	1	0	0	1.25	-0.330	-3.10	1t start tie	5t --- 1 out d4
3	246	10	Apr 9	LAD		DET	L,6-7	9-9		3	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.94	3	15	9	3	1	2	1	1	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	.16	0.005	0.42	9t --- 0 out d3	9t 3 out d3
4	247	12	Apr 12	LAD	@	ARI	W,8-5	8-8		2	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	8.10	5	17	9	2	0	3	1	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	.13	0.003	-0.55	8b --- 0 out a6	8b 3 out a5
5	248	15	Apr 16	LAD	@	SFG	L,1-2	GS-6		3	6.0	5	1	1	3	2	0	0	4.97	25	92	53	13	7	13	7	3	0	0	57			0	0	0	22	0	0	0	2	0	1	1.14	0.154	1.52	1b start tie	6b 3 out tie
6	249	20	Apr 21	LAD		PHI	L,0-7	GS-5	L(0-2)	4	5.0	8	5	4	3	2	1	0	5.60	27	107	58	22	3	8	14	7	0	0	32			0	0	0	24	2	0	0	0	0	1	.74	-0.243	-2.88	1t start tie	5t 3 out d5
7	250	25	Apr 26	LAD		COL	W,6-3	GS-7	W(1-2)	4	7.0	6	2	2	1	3	0	0	4.74	25	84	53	13	6	12	9	4	0	0	59			0	0	1	23	1	0	0	2	0	0	.89	0.108	0.97	1t start tie	7t 3 out a3
May				Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	RE24	Entered	Exited
8	251	31	May 3	LAD	@	MIA	W,9-7	GS-6		6	6.0	9	3	3	2	3	2	0	4.70	27	102	60	20	4	12	10	6	0	0	43			0	0	0	25	2	0	0	1	0	0	.77	-0.033	-0.27	1b start tie	6b 3 out a4

Maholm pitched OK is some games, not so well in others.  The Dodgers were 2-3 in Maholm's starts during Kershaw's absence. The point is that an actual pitcher replaced Kershaw, not a mythical replacement player.  Suppose Maholm had been hot for that month and the Dodgers had won all five of his starts?  Then the Dodger record would have been 20-12 instead of 17-15.  Would that have made Kershaw less valuable.

Finally, let's cruise back to the 1972 MVP vote:

Rank	Name	Tm	Vote Pts	1st Place	Share	WAR	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	W	L	ERA	WHIP	G	GS	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO
1	Johnny Bench	CIN	263.0	11.0	78%	8.6	147	538	87	145	40	125	6	100	.270	.379	.541	.920
2	Billy Williams	CHC	211.0	5.0	63%	6.1	150	574	95	191	37	122	3	62	.333	.398	.606	1.005
3	Willie Stargell	PIT	201.0	2.0	60%	3.9	138	495	74	145	33	112	1	65	.293	.373	.558	.930
4	Joe Morgan	CIN	197.0	5.0	59%	9.3	149	552	122	161	16	73	58	115	.292	.417	.435	.851
5	Steve Carlton	PHI	124.0	1.0	37%	12.5	41	117	6	23	1	8	0	5	.197	.236	.265	.501	27	10	1.97	0.993	41	41	0	346.1	257	17	87	310

Steve Carlton got all 24 first place votes for the Cy Young award but only one for the MVP despite having much higher WAR, a concept that was decades away from creation.  Carlton was all the rage because his Phillies had won only 59 games and he had won 27 of them.  But even that is skewed.  Look at the other Phillies starting pitchers:

Rk	Pos	Name	Age	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
1	SP	Steve Carlton*	27	27	10	.730	1.97	41	41	0	30	8	0	346.1	257	84	76	17	87	8	310	1	2	8	1351	182	2.01	0.993	6.7	0.4	2.3	8.1	3.56
2	SP	Ken Reynolds*	25	2	15	.118	4.26	33	23	1	2	0	0	154.1	149	76	73	17	60	6	87	1	0	1	652	85	3.89	1.354	8.7	1.0	3.5	5.1	1.45
3	SP	Bill Champion	24	4	14	.222	5.09	30	22	1	2	0	0	132.2	155	80	75	11	54	8	54	1	0	7	584	71	3.91	1.575	10.5	0.7	3.7	3.7	1.00
4	SP	Woodie Fryman*	32	4	10	.286	4.36	23	17	4	3	2	1	119.2	131	64	58	15	39	9	69	2	2	2	518	83	3.90	1.421	9.9	1.1	2.9	5.2	1.77
Rk	Pos	Name	Age	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
5	RP	Wayne Twitchell	24	5	9	.357	4.06	49	15	17	1	1	1	139.2	138	72	63	6	56	6	112	2	1	4	602	89	2.60	1.389	8.9	0.4	3.6	7.2	2.00
6	RP	Bucky Brandon	31	7	7	.500	3.45	42	6	17	0	0	2	104.1	106	49	40	9	46	8	67	6	1	3	454	105	3.73	1.457	9.1	0.8	4.0	5.8	1.46
7	RP	Barry Lersch	27	4	6	.400	3.04	36	8	4	3	1	0	100.2	86	37	34	8	33	7	48	3	1	3	416	119	3.55	1.182	7.7	0.7	3.0	4.3	1.45
8	RP	Dick Selma	28	2	9	.182	5.56	46	10	25	1	0	3	98.2	91	67	61	13	73	9	58	5	0	6	459	65	5.31	1.662	8.3	1.2	6.7	5.3	0.79

Did the fact that the other starters were not very good make Carlton more valuable?  Here were the leading 2014 Dodger starters:

Rk	Pos	Name	Age	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
1	SP	Zack Greinke	30	17	8	.680	2.71	32	32	0	0	0	0	202.1	190	69	61	19	43	3	207	2	0	12	821	129	2.97	1.152	8.5	0.8	1.9	9.2	4.81
2	SP	Clayton Kershaw*	26	21	3	.875	1.77	27	27	0	6	2	0	198.1	139	42	39	9	31	0	239	2	2	7	749	197	1.81	0.857	6.3	0.4	1.4	10.8	7.71
3	SP	Dan Haren	33	13	11	.542	4.02	32	32	0	0	0	0	186.0	183	101	83	27	36	7	145	3	1	8	776	87	4.09	1.177	8.9	1.3	1.7	7.0	4.03
4	SP	Hyun-jin Ryu*	27	14	7	.667	3.38	26	26	0	0	0	0	152.0	152	60	57	8	29	2	139	3	0	2	631	103	2.62	1.191	9.0	0.5	1.7	8.2	4.79
5	SP	Josh Beckett	34	6	6	.500	2.88	20	20	0	1	1	0	115.2	96	41	37	17	39	2	107	5	0	1	475	121	4.33	1.167	7.5	1.3	3.0	8.3	2.74

Zack Greinke (17-8) and Hyun-jin Ryu (14-7) had good records.  How did that impact the evaluation of Kershaw?  They don't even play in the same games.  Paul Maholm started only 8 games, 5 during the absence of Kershaw; he also relieved in 22 games.  Maholm for the season: 1-5, 4.84 ERA, 70 innings.  Did Paul Maholm help Clayton Kershaw win the MVP award?