Monday, September 13, 2021

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ties Shohei Ohtani at 44 home runs. Anyone care in how many at bats?

Home runs is one of the few basic stats which is still revered as a total, ignoring opportunities. Here are the 2021 MLB batters with at least 33 home runs through 9/12/21 from stathead.com via baseball-reference.com:

Guerrero has had more opportunities than Ohtani: more AB and more PA. Tatis, who leads the NL, has had the fewest opportunities among these eleven batters: fewest AB and fewest PA. Only 2 of 11 are in the NL.

Let's take another look using AB and then PA.

PlayerHRABPAAB/HRPA/HRBAOBPSLGOPSAgeTm
Fernando Tatis Jr.3840346410.6112.21.283.369.630.99922SDP
Shohei Ohtani4447555410.8012.59.259.361.611.97226LAA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.4453361712.1114.02.319.408.6101.01822TOR
Salvador Perez4254858713.0513.98.274.315.538.85431KCR
Adam Duvall3445149113.2614.44.228.285.499.78432TOT
Brandon Lowe3347154714.2716.58.238.338.503.84126TBR
Jose Ramirez3347855014.4816.67.255.347.538.88528CLE
Matt Olson3449758614.6217.24.276.370.545.91627OAK
Marcus Semien3957464014.7216.41.272.342.547.88930TOR
Kyle Seager3453159515.6217.50.209.287.446.73433SEA
Rafael Devers3352058815.7617.82.273.350.533.88324BOS

PlayerHRABPAAB/HRPA/HRBAOBPSLGOPSAgeTm
Fernando Tatis Jr.3840346410.6112.21.283.369.630.99922SDP
Shohei Ohtani4447555410.8012.59.259.361.611.97226LAA
Salvador Perez4254858713.0513.98.274.315.538.85431KCR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.4453361712.1114.02.319.408.6101.01822TOR
Adam Duvall3445149113.2614.44.228.285.499.78432TOT
Marcus Semien3957464014.7216.41.272.342.547.88930TOR
Brandon Lowe3347154714.2716.58.238.338.503.84126TBR
Jose Ramirez3347855014.4816.67.255.347.538.88528CLE
Matt Olson3449758614.6217.24.276.370.545.91627OAK
Kyle Seager3453159515.6217.50.209.287.446.73433SEA
Rafael Devers3352058815.7617.82.273.350.533.88324BOS

Tatis played September 12, 2021 in his team's game number 142, so there are 20 games remaining. If Tatis plays in all 20 and has 4 PA in each he will have 544 PA, more than the minimum 502 to qualify in the "average" stats like BA, OBP, SLG, OPS.

But if Adam Duvall, who played all his games in the NL, passes Tatis in home runs, Duvall will be the NL home run king. Seems primitive.

Somebody will lead in hits but who will notice? Long ago batting average supplanted raw hits and BA isn't considered very useful now, although leading in BA is still called leading the league in hitting.

All of which is curious at the least.

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