Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Total Bases: could Trout catch Ruth or Aaron?

Babe Ruth set the season record in 1921 and still holds it. Here are the top 20 seasons in Total Bases (1B + (2B*2) + (3B*3) + (HR*4)) sorted by year:

RkPlayerTB2B3BHRYear
AgeTmLgGPAABRHRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPos
1Babe Ruth457441659192126NYYAL15269354017720416814581441713.378.512.8461.359*78/13
2Rogers Hornsby450461442192226STLNL15470462314125015265501151712.401.459.7221.181*4
3Babe Ruth41729860192732NYYAL1516915401581921651378901476.356.486.7721.258*97
4Lou Gehrig447521847192724NYYAL15571758414921817310984321108.373.474.7651.240*3
5Rogers Hornsby40947839192933CHCNL15671260215622914987651222.380.459.6791.139*4
6Babe Herman416481135193027BRONL153699614143241130665641518.393.455.6781.132*9/H
7Lou Gehrig419421741193027NYYAL154703581143220173101633181214.379.473.7211.194*3/7
8Hack Wilson42335656193030CHCNL155709585146208191105841183.356.454.7231.177*8
9Chuck Klein44559840193025PHINL15672264815825017054504134.386.436.6871.123*9
10Lou Gehrig410311546193128NYYAL15573861916321118511756021712.341.446.6621.108*3/9
11Chuck Klein420501538193227PHINL15471165015222613760491020.348.404.6461.050*9
12Jimmie Foxx43833958193224PHAAL154702585151213169116960037.364.469.7491.218*35
13Lou Gehrig40940649193431NYYAL154690579128210166109312095.363.465.7061.172*3/6
14Joe DiMaggio418351546193722NYYAL15169262115121516764375230.346.412.6731.085*8/H
15Stan Musial429461839194827STLNL155698611135230131793431187.376.450.7021.152*987/3
16Larry Walker40946449199730COLNL153664568143208130781490140415338.366.452.7201.172*9/3H8D
17Sammy Sosa41620066199829CHCNL159722643134198158731417110520189.308.377.6471.024*9/8
18Barry Bonds41132273200136SFGNL15366447612915613717735939025133.328.515.8631.379*7/DH
19Luis Gonzalez41936757200133ARINL162728609128198142100248314051411.325.429.6881.117*7/H
20Sammy Sosa42534564200132CHCNL160711577146189160116371536012602.328.437.7371.174*9

The earlier players hit more triples. The five most recent seasons with at least 409 TB have few triples. That would make it more difficult for a current player to get even 400 TB.

Tops since 2002:
RkPlayerTB2B3BHRYearAgeTmLgGPAABRHRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPos
1Albert Pujols39451143200323STLNL15768559113721212479126510051351.359.439.6671.106*73/HD
2Derrek Lee39350346200529CHCNL158691594120199107852310950712153.335.418.6621.080*3
3Albert Pujols38951246200424STLNL1546925921331961238412527092155.331.415.6571.072*3/DH
4Alex Rodriguez38927257200226TEXAL162725624125187142871212210041494.300.392.6231.015*6/H
5Charlie Blackmon387351437201730COLNL159725644137213104659135103341410.331.399.6011.000*8/H
6Matt Holliday38650636200727COLNL158713636120216137637126100423114.340.405.6071.012*7/D
7Ryan Howard38325158200626PHINL15970458110418214910837181906700.313.425.6591.084*3/H
8Alfonso Soriano38151239200226NYYAL156741696128209102231157141784113.300.332.547.880*4/HD
9Jimmy Rollins380382030200728PHINL162778716139212944958570611416.296.344.531.875*6
10Giancarlo Stanton37732059201727MIANL15969259712316813285131637031322.281.376.6311.007*9/HD
11Miguel Cabrera37740044201229DETAL1616976221092051396617983062841.330.393.606.999*5/D3
12Alex Rodriguez37631054200731NYYAL1587085831431831569511120210915244.314.422.6451.067*5/D
13Adrian Beltre37632048200425LADNL156657598104200121539872041572.334.388.6291.017*5/H6

Four had zero triples and two had one triple. Only Blackmon and Rollins had a significant number of triples. Stanton hit the 9th most home runs all time and the most since Bonds (73) and Sosa (64) in 2001. But Stanton's double total was modest and his triples non-existent.

Home Runs >= 493: distribution of 1B, 2B, 3B, HR as percent of Hits and Total Bases. Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Distribution of 1B, 2B, 3B, HR as percent of Hits and Total Bases 1903-2017. Sunday, March 11, 2018

Lately some attention has been given to the reduction in total triples in recent years. This post puts that into a broader context. See graphs below.
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Home Runs replacing Singles. Friday, May 4, 2018 10:45AM


It's more about Home Runs replacing Singles than Triples declining.
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2018 by team: distribution of 1B, 2B, 3B, HR as percent of Hits and Total Bases first month. Friday, May 4, 2018 3:35PM

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So where's Mike Trout? On the all time list and since 2002:
338/76. 339 in 2015
347/80. 338 in 2014

In other words, Mike Trout is nowhere near the top even in recent seasons. The Babe's season record seems safe.

Career at least 5,000 TB:
RkPlayerTB2B3BHRFromToAgeGPAABRHRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
1Hank Aaron6856624987551954197620-423298139411236421743771229714022931383322112132824073.305.374.555.928*9783DH/45MLN-ATL-MIL
2Stan Musial61347251774751941196320-423026127181097219493630195115991276965335532437831.331.417.559.9763798H/1STL
3Willie Mays60665231406601951197320-422992124961088120623283190314641921526441391251338103.302.384.557.941*8H/39675NYG-SFG-NYM
4Barry Bonds5976601777621986200721-42298612606984722272935199625586881539106491165514141.298.444.6071.051*78H/D9PIT-SFG
5Ty Cobb58547242951171905192818-4130341308711434224441891944124968094291897212.366.433.512.945*89/H73415DET-PHA
6Alex Rodriguez5813548316961994201618-402784122071056620213115208613389722871761611126132976.295.380.550.93065D/H3SEA-TEX-NYY
7Babe Ruth57935061367141914193519-40250310623839921742873221420621330431132123117.342.474.6901.164971/H83BOS-NYY-BSN
8Pete Rose57527461351601963198622-4535621589014053216542561314156616711431075679247198149.303.375.409.78437549H/8CIN-PHI-MON
9Albert Pujols5580630166262001201821-382645114921001917533040196012653091191103110437011041.303.384.557.941*3D75/9H64STL-LAA
10Carl Yastrzemski5539646594521961198321-4333081399211988181634191844184519013934013105323168116.285.379.462.841*73D8/H59BOS
11Eddie Murray5397560355041977199721-41302612817113361627325519171333222151618212831511043.287.359.476.836*3D/H57BAL-LAD-NYM-CLE-ANA
12Rafael Palmeiro5388585385691986200521-40283112046104721663302018351353172134887151192329740.288.371.515.885*3D7/H98CHC-BAL-TEX
13Frank Robinson5373528725861956197620-4028081174210006182929431812142021815321981710227020477.294.389.537.92697D3H8/5CIN-BAL-LAD-CAL-CLE
14Ken Griffey5271524386301989201019-4026711130498011662278118361312246177981810219918469.284.370.538.907*89DH/73SEA-CIN-CHW
15Dave Winfield5221540884651973199521-43297312358110031669311018331216172168625199531922396.283.353.475.827*97D8H/35SDP-NYY-CAL-TOR-MIN-CLE
16Adrian Beltre5199623384661998201819-39286211850108101493310216678321121673931410127212042.287.340.481.821*5D/H64LAD-SEA-BOS-TEX
17Cal Ripken5168603444311981200120-40300112883115511647318416951129107130566101273503639.276.340.447.788*65/DHBAL
18Tris Speaker51017922221171907192819-40278911995101951882351415311381393103309436157.345.428.500.928*8/H3971BOS-CLE-WSH-PHA
19Lou Gehrig50605341634931923193920-362164966380011888272119951508790451062102100.340.447.6321.080*3/H976NYY
20George Brett50446651373171973199320-40270711625103491583315415961096229908332612023520197.305.369.487.857*5D3/H796KCR
21Mel Ott5041488725111926194717-3827301134894561859287618601708896641098289.304.414.533.947*95H8/74NYG

The career record progressed like this:
Honus Wagner 1915-1923 (4,640 to 4,870) passing Cap Anson
Ty Cobb 1924-1961 (5,099 to 5,854)
Stan Musial 1962-1971 (5,998 to 6,134)
Hank Aaron 1972-2018 (6,172 to 6,856)

You can see that Cobb was the  first to 5,000 TB and Musial the first to 6,000 TB.

To achieve 6,000 TB a player such as Mike Trout would have to average 300 TB for 20 years. And he'd still be over 800 behind Aaron. For his first six full seasons (2012-2017) Trout is averaging 313 TB. At that pace Trout would have to play 22 full seasons to catch Aaron.

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