Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Should decisions be judged on the result? Babe Ruth, Gerrit Cole, Pedro Martinez, Matt Harvey.

In the regular season Babe Ruth pinch hit 59 times: OPS .727, 0 Home Runs in 48 At Bats, 11 BB. ZERO Home Runs. Does that mean that his managers made bad decisions in having the Babe pinch hit?

Ruth started his career as a pitcher with the Boston Red Sox. His first World Series appearance was as a pinch hitter.

Attendance: 19,343
Venue: Baker Bowl
Game Duration: 1:58
Day Game, on grass

Top of the 9th, Red Sox Batting, Behind 1-3, Phillies' Pete Alexander facing 7-8-9
Jack Barry Strikeout
Olaf Henriksen Reached on E3 (Ground Ball)
Babe Ruth pinch hits for Ernie Shore (P) batting 9th
Babe Ruth Groundout: 1B unassisted
Harry Hooper Popfly: 1B
Phillies win.

You get the idea. Having Babe Ruth pinch hit is probably a good idea no matter what happens.

The current second guessing among blowhards, at least in New York, are decisions made by Yankee manager Aaron Boone during the ALCS when the Yankees were swept by their nemesis Houston Astros.

I myself commented, though no blowhard I:

Hal Steinbrenner, clean house! Fire Cashman and Boone, if Yanks lose to Houston ... again. Thursday, October 20, 2022

At lunch yesterday (i.e., BEFORE the game) I told a friend both those things:
Carpenter was not prepared and should not play.
Schmidt is a choker.

My friend disagreed. Am I really smart about this stuff? No. Neither my friend nor I are supposed to know. But Cashman and Boone are supposed to know.

___________________________

I'm no second guesser.

The current primary example concerns the game three decision to replace starting pitcher ace Gerrit Cole with non descript relief pitcher Lou Trivino in the 6th inning, Yanks trailing 2-0, with no outs and the bases loaded. Their 2022 pay:

Cole: $36 million
Trivino: $3 million

Usually, if a relief pitcher clears the bases of his predecessor's runners, I hold the relief pitcher responsible. And maybe I'm reacting to the force of the blowharding. But Trivino didn't pitch that badly and who knows what might have happened had Cole remained in the game. Trivino was facing the bottom of the order: 7,8,9.

Trey Mancini: Sac fly; 1 run scored
Christian Vazquez: Single; 2 runs scored
Chas McCormick: Groundout: 3B-2B
Jose Altuve: Groundout: SS-2B

Cole had thrown 96 pitches. Cole threw at least 100 pitches in 19 games in 2022.

Some people thought that Cole should have remained to clean up his own mess. Or that if Cole was removed, his replacement should have been someone better than Trivino. After all, the Yankees were down in the series two games to zero.

Boone left Trivino in to pitch the 7th inning even though it was against batters 2,3,4: Pena, Alvarez, Bregman. Ground out, strike out, line out. Two innings, one hit.

The current conventional wisdom is that a bullpen game (all relief pitchers) is preferable unless the starting pitcher is an ace like Gerrit Cole. In that case stick with the ace.

But wait. Here are a couple of contradictions from those thrilling days of yesteryear in this millennium. In both cases the manager was excoriated for leaving his ace in a tournament game.

2003 ALCS
New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (4-3)

Game 7
Thursday, October 16, 2003
Attendance: 56,279
Venue: Yankee Stadium II
Game Duration: 3:56
Night Game, on grass
Yankees 6, Red Sox 5 in 11 innings

Bottom of the 8th, Yankees Batting, Behind 2-5, Red Sox' Pedro Martinez facing 2-3-4
Nick Johnson: Popfly: SS
Derek Jeter: Double to RF (Fly Ball)
Bernie Williams: Single to CF (Line Drive); Jeter Scores
Hideki Matsui: Ground-rule Double (Line Drive); Williams to 3B
Jorge Posada: Double to CF (Fly Ball); Williams Scores; Matsui Scores
________ replaces Pedro Martinez pitching

Martinez wound up throwing 123 pitches. In two 2003 regular season games he threw 128 pitches. Martinez threw at least 100 pitches in 14 regular season games in 2003.

Posada's hit was a bloop. It tied the game 5-5. The Yankees left the bases loaded against two relief pitchers.

HR: Jason Giambi 2 (3, 2 off Pedro Martinez, 5th inn, 0 on, 0 outs to CF-RF; 7th inn, 0 on, 2 outs to CF); Aaron Boone (1, off Tim Wakefield, 11th inn, 0 on, 0 outs to LF).

Current Yankee manager Aaron Boone won the pennant in his only plate appearance in that game.

In the discussions at the time I maintained that there is no way I'd replace Martinez and that on the day of his induction into the Hall of Fame people would not remember the name of the relief pitcher they thought should have replaced him.

Red Sox manager Grady Little lost his job after the season.

2015 World Series
Kansas City Royals over New York Mets (4-1)

Matt Harvey started games one and five.

Game 5
Sunday, November 1, 2015
Start Time: 8:18 p.m. Local
Attendance: 44,859
Venue: Citi Field
Game Duration: 4:15
Night Game, on grass
Royals 7, Mets 2 in 12 innings

Top of the 9th, Royals Batting, Behind 0-2, Mets' Matt Harvey facing 3-4-5
Lorenzo Cain: Walk
Cain Steals 2B
Eric Hosmer: Double to LF (Line Drive); Cain Scores
Jeurys Familia replaces Matt Harvey pitching and batting 9th
Mike Moustakas: Groundout: 1B unassisted; Hosmer to 3B
Salvador Perez: Groundout: 3B-1B; Hosmer Scores
Alex Gordon: Groundout: P unassisted

Royals 2, Mets 2.

Harvey wound up throwing 111 pitches. He threw 115 pitches in one 2015 regular season game. Harvey threw at least 100 pitches in 14 regular season games in 2015.

Later video showed Harvey charging to the mound from the Met dugout in the 9th inning. The Met fans were cheering.

Terry Collins managed Houston three years, Angels three years and the Mets seven years: 2011-2017. He was criticised for letting Harvey start the 9th inning and then for sticking with Harvey too long. Harvey is now 33 years old and he did not pitch in 2022. But he was a very big deal in 2013 and 2015, both on the mound and off the field. He started two of the five games in that 2015 World Series.

Sometimes good decisions have bad results.

Sometimes bad decisions work out.

Sometimes decisions are influenced by luck.

Blah, blah, blah.

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