How important is one career Home Run? To Hank Aaron, Willie McCovey, ...?

I noticed that Willie McCovey returned to his original Giants team to finish his career: 1977-1980. He first played for the Giants in 1959 when he was Rookie of the Year despite playing only 52 games. In his first game July 30, 1959 McCovey was 4 for 4, including two Triples.

McCovey was playing MLB in parts of four decades. In his age 42 1980 season McCovey hit only one Home Run (HR) but it was number 521 in his career. That tied him with Ted Williams. Most AL and NL career Home Runs through 1980:

Rk	Player	HR	OPS+	TB	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H
1	Henry Aaron	755	155	6856	1954	1976	20-42	3298	13941	12364	2174	3771
2	Babe Ruth	714	206	5793	1914	1935	19-40	2503	10627	8399	2174	2873
3	Willie Mays	660	156	6066	1951	1973	20-42	2992	12497	10881	2062	3283
4	Frank Robinson	586	154	5373	1956	1976	20-40	2808	11744	10006	1829	2943
5	Harmon Killebrew	573	143	4143	1954	1975	18-39	2435	9833	8147	1283	2086
6	Mickey Mantle	536	172	4511	1951	1968	19-36	2401	9910	8102	1676	2415
7	Jimmie Foxx	534	163	4956	1925	1945	17-37	2317	9677	8134	1751	2646
8	Willie McCovey	521	147	4219	1959	1980	21-42	2588	9692	8197	1229	2211
9	Ted Williams	521	191	4884	1939	1960	20-41	2292	9792	7706	1798	2654
10	Ernie Banks	512	122	4706	1953	1971	22-40	2528	10396	9421	1305	2583
11	Eddie Mathews	512	143	4349	1952	1968	20-36	2391	10101	8537	1509	2315
12	Mel Ott	511	155	5041	1926	1947	17-38	2730	11347	9456	1859	2876

McCovey had entered the previous season, 1979, with 505 HR. McCovey hit 15 to pass Ott, Mathews and Banks and reach #10. By hitting that final HR in 1980 McCovey was tied for #8.

His 1980 game log shows that McCovey hit his lone HR in the 20th of the 48 games that he played in 1980. Once he had finally tied Williams, McCovey gave himself a good chance to hit one more.

How important was that and how relevant given that Williams had the fewest At Bats (AB) among those 12 players with at least 500 HR? McCovey did have 100 more Plate Appearances (PA) than Williams.

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May 26, 1959 Harvey Haddix pitched one of the greatest games of all time and it had one of the strangest endings. The score was 0-0 through 12 innings and Haddix had not allowed a base runner to Hank Aaron and his powerful Milwaukee Braves lineup. Haddix was perfect.

Tuesday, May 26, 1959

Start Time: 8:00 p.m. Local

Attendance: 19,194

Venue: County Stadium

Game Duration: 2:54

Night Game, on grass

Braves 1, Pirates 0

This despite a three run homer off Haddix in the bottom of the 13th inning by Hank Aaron. Or was it by Joe Adcock?

This was before ESPN was even a twinkle in anyone's eye. For some reason we couldn't get straight whether Aaron or Adcock had made the base running mistake costing the other a "walk off" home run, this before the term "walk off" existed.

Bottom of the 13th inning:

Felix Mantilla hit a ground ball to Pirate third baseman Don Hoak who made a throwing error. Mantilla became the first Brave to reach base in the game.

Lefty Eddie Mathews, tied for 10th on the HR list above, bunted against the lefty Haddix. Out on the sacrifice and Mantilla advanced to second base.

Hank Aaron was intentionally walked. Runners on first and second, one out. Not too different from the extra inning rule started in the COVID shortened 2020 season: extra innings start with a runner on second.

Up comes Joe Adcock. From https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MLN/MLN195905260.shtml

Double to CF (Deep CF-RF); Mantilla Scores/unER; Aaron to 3B; Adcock out at 2B/SS; Joe Adcock hit the ball into the right center stands for a
homerun, but was declared out for passing Henry Aaron between 2B and 3B; Aaron thought the ball had landed inside the fence; 1B Umpire Frank
Dascoli ruled the final score was 2 to 0 but was overruled by NL President Warren Giles who said that since it was only a double, then only one
run was needed to win the game;

_______________________

If Aaron went to 3B, how could Adcock pass Aaron between 2B and 3B?

Aaron's first season was 1954. This game was May 26, 1959. By then Aaron had seen many home runs, including walk-off HR. Both Aaron and Mathews had hit walk-off HR in 1957:

Aaron: 1957-09-23

Mathews: 1957-06-30 (2)

In 1959 before the 12 perfect innings game, Braves lost in Philadelphia on a walk off by Hamner (no base runners):

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI195904230.shtml

A couple of weeks before 12 perfect:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MLN/MLN195905050.shtml

Aaron doubled in 16th with Mathews on first and two out. Why did Aaron run to second? If anything, Aaron could have been tagged out before Mathews scored the winning run.

May 10, 1959: Aaron gets another walk off hit:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MLN/MLN195905102.shtml

Two out bases loaded. 

 L. Burdette to 3B; J. O'Brien to 2B

If they don't tag the next base, they could be put out and the winning run might not score. Aaron runs to first or he could be put out.

May 12, 1959: final walk off before 12 perfect game:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN195905120.shtml

Braves lead 3-2 going to bottom of 9th but lose 7-3 after Cubs score 5 in 9th! Five.

Out, HR. Game tied.

1B, 1B, IBB. Really.

Ground out at plate. Two out.

Grand slam. All runners round the bases ... and in order. Aaron watched from RF.

_________________________

But I digress.

Even a few days ago I was talking to a couple of knowledgeable baseball friends who could not remember whether it was Adcock or Aaron who had lost a Home Run in that legendary game. I couldn't remember either but I said that it had to have been Adcock. Had Aaron lost a home run it would have been a HUGE deal when he was approaching Babe Ruth's career record of 714.

In 1973 in his age 39 season Aaron hit 40 HR in only 392 AB to bring his career HR total to ... 713. People would have been fixated on the lost Home Run of 1959.

Suppose something happened between the 1973 and 1974 seasons and Aaron could no longer play? The lost homer would have become a HUGE deal. But why?

Look at the list above. Ruth had many fewer PA and AB than Aaron. That list includes Aaron's totals after he hit 714 and 715 in early 1974. But Aaron was already way ahead of Ruth in PA and AB by then. So what the heck are we talking about with totals?

Baseball fans stare at Home Run totals beyond all reason. That's been a recurring theme in this blog for years: staring at traditional numbers especially BA and HR. An average and a total. Nobody stares at Hits (except Pete Rose career, which another nonsense) for BA or AB for HR.

Stop staring at Batting Average and Home Runs. Look at their percentage above the league. Sunday, January 30, 2022

A little more context for Aaron: 28 season HR totals through 1974 greater than Aaron's top of 47 (Note that Maris not only had 8 more games to pass Ruth but did it in 50 more AB.):

Rk	Player	HR	Season	Age	Team	Lg	G	PA	AB
1	Roger Maris	61	1961	26	NYY	AL	161	698	590
2	Babe Ruth	60	1927	32	NYY	AL	151	691	540
3	Babe Ruth	59	1921	26	NYY	AL	152	693	540
4	Jimmie Foxx	58	1932	24	PHA	AL	154	702	585
5	Hank Greenberg	58	1938	27	DET	AL	155	681	556
6	Hack Wilson	56	1930	30	CHC	NL	155	709	585
7	Ralph Kiner	54	1949	26	PIT	NL	152	667	549
8	Mickey Mantle	54	1961	29	NYY	AL	153	646	514
9	Babe Ruth	54	1928	33	NYY	AL	154	684	536
10	Babe Ruth	54	1920	25	NYY	AL	142	617	458
11	Mickey Mantle	52	1956	24	NYY	AL	150	652	533
12	Willie Mays	52	1965	34	SFG	NL	157	638	558
13	Ralph Kiner	51	1947	24	PIT	NL	152	666	565
14	Willie Mays	51	1955	24	NYG	NL	152	670	580
15	Johnny Mize	51	1947	34	NYG	NL	154	664	586
16	Jimmie Foxx	50	1938	30	BOS	AL	149	685	565
17	Lou Gehrig	49	1934	31	NYY	AL	154	690	579
18	Lou Gehrig	49	1936	33	NYY	AL	155	719	579
19	Harmon Killebrew	49	1969	33	MIN	AL	162	709	555
20	Harmon Killebrew	49	1964	28	MIN	AL	158	682	577
21	Ted Kluszewski	49	1954	29	CIN	NL	149	659	573
22	Willie Mays	49	1962	31	SFG	NL	162	706	621
23	Frank Robinson	49	1966	30	BAL	AL	155	680	576
24	Babe Ruth	49	1930	35	NYY	AL	145	676	518
25	Jimmie Foxx	48	1933	25	PHA	AL	149	670	573
26	Frank Howard	48	1969	32	WSA	AL	161	702	592
27	Harmon Killebrew	48	1962	26	MIN	AL	155	666	552
28	Willie Stargell	48	1971	31	PIT	NL	141	606	511

Those 1973 Atlanta Braves: was there something in the water? Tuesday, August 31, 2010